Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 122014 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 314 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will approach the region from the west late tonight into early Friday, then stall across northern North Carolina Saturday before return north as a warm front late Saturday night. This later front will then oscillate north and south across the region into early next week keeping an unsettled and wet weather pattern in place.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 230 PM EST Thursday... A quasi-stationary cold front over the Ohio Valley will track to the southeast through the period. This front is expected to move and stall across southeastern West Virginia Friday morning. Farther north, this front is expected to move east of the Appalachian Mountains then slides south across the central Virginia Piedmont in the afternoon, possibly into northern North Carolina by the evening. With the front mostly staying out of the forecast area for the next 24 hours, we will continue to see warmer than normal temperatures. tonight and tomorrow. Overnight temperatures will run 3F to 8F warmer than normal with readings in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Friday`s highs will vary from the upper 40s to lower 50s near the front in southeastern West Virginia to the mid to upper 60s across Southside Virginia. These temperatures are 15F to 20F warmer than normal. Precipitation chances will be limited to the vicinity of the frontal boundary with a few stray showers coming across the mountains in westerly flow. The best chances for showers will be along western slopes of southeastern West Virginia tonight through early Friday morning and southwestern Virginia Friday morning to early afternoon. No rain is expect to fall east of the Blue Ridge. Since the region is expecting warmer than normal temperatures through the period, all precipitation will fall as rain. Breezy conditions this afternoon are in response to a wave of low pressure tracking along the front in the Ohio Valley. These winds will decrease starting this evening evening as this wave tracks northeast into New England this evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As OF 243 PM EST Thursday... Lift increases over the top of the wedge Friday night. This brings an increasing chance for precipitation, and as the cold wedge continues to build some freezing rain and possibly sleet is expected to develop from the mountains of SE WV north of I-64 east to the Blue Ridge north of Roanoke. Still looks like a low qpf event, so no more than advisory impact will occur and mainly on the east/northeast sides of slopes into valleys. Will continue to highlight in the HWO. Will see cold air slowly erode Saturday with all places seeing plain rain, though higher percentage will be west of the Blue Ridge. Another weak wave moves across the southern Appalachians Saturday night with weak wedge, so rainfall still around for the west with less chance east. Another strong high will wedge in for Sunday and Sunday night. At this time it looks like just a chance of rain for everyone but temperatures trends will be monitored closely.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As OF 220 PM EST Thursday... Wavy front across the area Monday morning lifts north into New York Tuesday as strong upper low moving across the central U.S. amplifies ridge downstream. Will see less threat of showers Monday but still looks cloudier, though some sunshine should peek out. Warm air will stick around into midweek with models slowing the front moving into the CWA until late Thursday into Friday. Decided to keep pops low Tuesday with mainly dry in the foothills/piedmont then chance pops start Wednesday with better threat Thursday. Highs running about 10- 20 degrees above normal Tue-Thu.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1217 PM EST Thursday... Warm front has lifted well north of the CWA into PA, leaving the area in a warm sector. Current warm sector air mass will remain in place until a backdoor front arrives late Friday into Saturday. The warm sector air mass is largely void of the lower ceilings at this time. Winds will increase this afternoon with a strong 850mb jet traversing the region. Overnight, as winds veer more to the WSW across eastern WV, expect low clouds to potentially develop with ceilings dropping into the MVFR range at KLWB, KBLF, and possibly KBCB as well. Still expect VFR cigs further east across the Piedmont. Medium to high confidence in cigs throughout the TAF valid period. Medium to high confidence in vsbys throughout the TAF valid period. Medium to high confidence in wind dir/spd throughout the TAF valid period. Extended Aviation Discussion... Should see mainly sub-VFR to start Friday as a backdoor frontal system works its way south into the region by Friday evening. However locations across the north could see enough drying behind the front to briefly return to VFR late Friday as the axis of moisture drifts to the south. Locations across the southern part of the CWA may also remain VFR through the period. Low level moisture will then arc back north Friday night into Saturday, maintaining the threat for additional sub- VFR in low cigs/fog, along with light rain and/or drizzle, including possible patchy freezing rain across the northern Blue Ridge. Unsettled weather will continue into Sunday with some slow improvement in conditions as high pressure weakens to the north leaving the residual weak front near the area. However given uncertainty appears mainly MVFR to prevail under passing showers as the boundary likely oscillates across parts of the region. Southerly flow aloft will develop Monday ahead of a frontal system in the Central Plains with continued MVFR as the low level wedge redevelops while helping keep low clouds in place.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RCS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...RCS

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