Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 031516 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1016 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure tracks from the midwest to overhead through tonight. An upper low across Mexico will shift to the lower Mississippi Valley into early next week. Several disturbances ahead of this feature will bring periodic chances of mainly rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 am EST Saturday... Will see a little more dense cirrus/cirrostratus at times this morning across the foothills/piedmont of NC/Southern VA per upper pattern and ongoing orographic effects. Will see the upslope clouds in the west start to slowly erode during the afternoon. A piece of shortwave energy will eject from the upper low over Mexico today and move into our area late tonight with increasing moisture and isentropic lift. At the surface, high pressure will shift from the midwest this morning to over our area tonight. Will see dry weather today, with still temps running about 5 degrees below normal, except colder in WV where clouds will linger here longer. Highs will run from the upper 30s to lower 40s across the far western slopes of WV, far Southwest VA, to lower to mid 40s elsewhere west of the Blue Ridge, with upper 40s to lower 50s Roanoke and points east. Tonight will cloud up fast ahead of shortwave. Expect to see some light precipitation work into the NC mountains with ptype questions remaining. Also due to position of high pressure will lower pops a little from previous and confidence not high that much qpf will occur given the sfc high and dry air in place. Still models support some wintry mix at the start. Soundings suggest mainly potential for snow, maybe sleet, and rain. Temperatures will be around freezing and do not see much impact if any for winter accumulation. Cannot rule out a dusting on the higher ridges like Mt. Rogers and Beech Mtn. Expect it to remain dry north and east of a Bluefield-Pulaski- Stuart-Stoneville line. Lows tonight will be somewhat warmer given more clouds with mid to upper 20s in the Alleghanys and WV Greenbrier Mountains, to lower to mid 30s elsewhere. As precip falls into drier air some areas could drop cooler, mainly south of Bluefield to Floyd. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EST Saturday... Progressive and moist upper pattern will bring several chances for precipitation into early next week. On Sunday, high pressure at the surface will be sliding off to our east which sets up good isentropic lift along a frontal boundary a some pieces of short wave energy flow in our direction from the Gulf coast with a more vigorous northern stream short wave shearing off to our north. This will spread a chance of precipitation across the region from the southeast on Sunday especially for northwest North Carolina into the Mountain Empire of Virginia. Some wintry precipitation may also mix in west of the Blue Ridge but no accumulation is expected. By Monday high pressure will build into the Ohio valley and push the front to the east, giving us a generally dry day. However, the high will continue to build into New England and form a strong wedge down the east slopes of the Appalachians by Monday night as a low pressure system moves northeast out of the lower Mississippi valley. This system will be supported by remnant short wave energy from a closed low ejecting out of the southwest US along with substantial isentropic lift. This good dynamic support will bring a soaking rain to the region late Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will fluctuate through the period with readings below normal on Sunday, above normal on Monday, then back below normal in the cool moist wedge on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 336 PM EST Friday... A strong cold front will cross the region on Thursday. Behind this front conditions will be windy and very cold with upslope snow showers west of the Blue Ridge. High temperatures going into next weekend will be in the 20s across the mountains and 30s east of the Blue Ridge. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 630 AM EST Saturday... Overall appear will see MVFR cigs across BLF/LWB til midday-early afternoon before lifting/scattering to VFR. A bit of high clouds will be prevalent in the piedmont through midday. Tonight, moisture increases ahead of an upper impulse. Appears will see mainly VFR cigs in the 6-12kft ranger overnight, though should see some cigs start to approach MVFR near the VA/NC border by 12z with light wintry mix possible. Extended aviation discussion... A couple of pieces of upper energy will combine with low level moisture increase to generate precip....mainly rain Sunday. Appears some MVFR is likely in the mountains but mainly VFR east. A break in the rain into Monday may allow for some VFR with sub- VFR returning late Monday night ahead of low pressure moving into the Tennessee Valley with widespread rains expected into Tuesday. Expect a bit of improvement after Tuesday as front moves offshore with another front entering from the west, with mainly VFR expected then though some MVFR cigs into BLF/LWB possible. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...AL/WP

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