Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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957 FXUS61 KRNK 010500 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1200 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross our area this evening and be in the far western Atlantic by Thursday morning. High pressure will build over the area on Friday and prevail through at least Saturday. Our next potential weather maker will move into the region late Saturday night into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 750 PM EST Wednesday... Pre-frontal band of showers with a narrow stripe of stronger winds and heavy rain was moving northeast this evening. The air mass ahead of this band had only minimal instability but high amounts of shear. Expect this precipitation to move east of a Buckingham to Halifax line before 10PM. The true front was also triggering a few showers and was just moving through southeast West Virginia. This front will be east of Danville and Lynchburg by 2AM. Have adjusted probability of precipitation based on these trends. In the wake of the cold front, anticipate northwest winds in prevail. These winds will have the impact of creating subsidence east of the crest of the Blue Ridge, resulting in decreasing cloud cover heading into Thursday morning. The same northwest, upslope winds, will have the impact of maintaining cloud cover across the mountains, along with some isolated rain/snow showers across parts of southeast West Virginia heading into Thursday morning. Low temperatures tonight are forecast in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the mountains and mid 40s to near 50 across the Piedmont. The highest elevations of southeast West Virginia will experience lows in the low to mid 30s. This will be the area for some rain/snow showers very late tonight into Thursday morning. On Thursday, northwest winds will continue all while drier air works its way into the region. Skies will be mostly clear to clear across the Piedmont. Mountain locations will experience a trend of decreasing cloud cover from east to west. Areas between roughly Bluefield and Lewisburg, WV may be cloudy all day. Lingering isolated upslope rain/snow showers will be possible across western Greenbrier County. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 40s across the mountains and mid 50s to near 60 across the Piedmont. The western, higher ridges of Greenbrier County, WV may only climb into the mid to upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EST Wednesday... High pressure will build east from lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Appalachians Thursday night into Friday. Low temperatures Thursday night will range from the mid 20s in the northwest mountains to the lower 30s in the Piedmont. A weak shortwave will rotate around the upper low on Friday. This may produce a brief period of snow showers across the northern Alleghanys, mainly north of the RNK CWA. High temperatures Friday will vary from the lower 30s in the northwest mountains to the lower 50s in the Piedmont. High pressure will build east into our area Friday night. Low temperatures will drop into the lower 20s in the northern mountains to the lower 30s in the Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Wednesday... The challenge in the forecast remains the southern stream system originating from a closed upper low over Mexico. The surface low will lift north into Louisiana by Sunday and reach the South Carolina coast by Sunday night. In the westerly flow aloft, the northern stream system will slide east from the Great Lakes Sunday into the Mid Atlantic region Sunday night. P-type may be a concern early Sunday with surface temperatures hovering from the mid 20s to the lower 30s and 850mb temperatures struggling to rise above zero. At this time, will hold with a rain and snow mix for Saturday night into Sunday morning. There may also be some pockets of IP. At any rate, ECMWF and GFS, warm air will begin to surge northward Sunday changing any frozen/freezing precipitation to liquid. Will have to watch for an "in-situ" wedge keeping the threat for winter precipitation in the area longer, quite common at this time of year, and hard for the models to capture. Looks like Sunday high temperatures should climb to the mid 30s in the mountains to the mid 40s in the Piedmont. By Sunday night into Monday, the bulk of the moisture pushes south of our region. A wavy frontal boundary will wonder across the Southeast States Monday into Tuesday. Another frontal system approaches from the central U.S. Monday and lifts northward into the Great Lakes region by Tuesday. Questions arrive further in the extended periods about Wednesday with ECMWF curving out a low off the North Carolina coast while the GFS is less progressive. After a seasonably chilly/slightly below normal period through the weekend, expect a return to milder temperatures early next week as heights build aloft across the Southeast. A cold front will sweep east across the region on Thursday with colder temperatures arriving for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1155 PM EST Wednesday... Cold front was just crossing through KDAN and KLYH at 05Z/midnight. This front will move east overnight and will be off the Mid Atlantic coast by Thursday morning. Expect MVFR clouds tonight and Thursday morning on the west slopes of the Appalachians with clearing for the rest of southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina. High confidence on timing of front and ceilings through the TAF period. Behind the front winds become northwest and this upslope will also result in isolated to scattered rain/snow showers across mainly areas along and west of a KBLF to KLWB line. Probability of precipitation not high enough to include any showers in the southeast West Virginia TAFs at this time. Extended aviation discussion... VFR conditions are expected at most locations Thursday night through Saturday. Sunday into Monday our next weather system will move into the area. Confidence in timing is not high at this point, but its influence increases the probability of rain and MVFR or lower ceilings.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...AMS/DS SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...AMS/DS

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