Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 161756 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 156 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift south into the Carolinas by Monday. This high stays situated off the Southeast Coast through midweek bringing much warmer temperatures to the area. Next cold front arrives Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 100 PM EDT Sunday... The biggest adjustment to the forecast for this afternoon is the introduction of isolated showers across parts of the Northern Mountains of North Carolina and neighboring sections of the Grayson Highlands of southwest Virginia. Latest satellite imagery is starting to show a cluster of cumulus development in this area, and the latest HRRR offers a small area of showers parallel to the ridge line starting around 200 PM. Have included a similar depiction in the latest update for this region. Have also edged the high temperatures upwards a few degrees in areas where the current temperature is already within two degrees of the previously forecast high temperatures. No other notable changes made at this time. As of 950 AM EDT Sunday... Morning valley fog has been slower than usual to burn off this morning, especially in some locations that typically do not encounter it as frequently. Have delayed complete erosion by approximately two hours later as compared to previous forecast. Otherwise, no notable changes have been made to the ongoing forecast into the early afternoon. As of 730 AM EDT Sunday... A bit of fog had developed in deeper valleys and rural areas. Low clouds continue to exists over portions of the VA/NC piedmont and foothills. Still looks like fog will be clearing out by 9-10am. No other changes to the previous forecast. Quiet weather today with surface high off the mid-Atlantic coast. Will see some low clouds this morning across the Blue Ridge and either side, though even latest satellite showing more breaks. The flow turns more southerly today so expect some scattered to broken cumulus across the southern Blue Ridge into WV. Should be dry though a few models spitting out light qpf in the Southern Appalachians. Sprinkles could occur in the High Country of NC. Warmer today with highs from the upper 60s in the NC mountains with lower to mid 70s elsewhere. Tonight the surface high will be situated across North Carolina, with light winds. A return flow and some mixing will keep the higher terrain toward Bluefield, WV milder than deeper valleys. Look for mainly clear skies with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the deeper valleys, with mid to upper 60s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Sunday... The dominant feature through this period will be a broad summer like 590 dm subtropical ridge that will expand east-northeast from the central U.S as a broad trough builds into the western half of the U.S. and teleconnects to the downstream upper ridge. The surface high currently across the northern Mid-Atlantic coast will shift south into a Bermuda high position. This will bring warm west to southwest surface flow into the CWA and allow 850mb temps to rise into the +15C to +18C level through much of the period. By Wednesday, the broad western U.S. upper trough will shift into the central U.S. This will allow the flow across our region to become more south to southwesterly and result in increasing moisture levels from the Gulf. However, the associated frontal system will not reach our region until at least Friday as it becomes parallel to the upper flow. Thus, have not advertised mentionable pops during the short term period. As noted above, temperatures are expected to be well above normal through the period. Maximum temperatures are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees above normal ranging from the 70s west to the lower and perhaps even mid 80s Piedmont by Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum temperatures will also be well above normal, averaging in the 50s, even close to 60 across the Piedmont. Normal maximum temperatures for mid-October range from the upper 50s mountains to the upper 60s Piedmont with normal minimum temperatures upper 30s to lower 40s mountains to the mid 40s Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Sunday... Models beginning to come into better consensus regarding the evolution and behavior of eastern U.S. troughing during the later half of the week. GFS has trended toward the earlier runs of the ECMWF by abandoning the concept of a deep closed low in the Ohio Valley or Tennessee Valley in favor of a full-latitude trough sweeping through the eastern U.S. by the weekend. While there remains some potential for a tropical system to become embedded or entrained into this trough, model consensus now is for this to occur southeast and east of the RNK CWA. Advertised rainfall is considerably less than projected in earlier model runs and also of far less duration. There is also the potential for deeper convection to develop across the southeast U.S. or off the southeast U.S. coast and limit available moisture further northwest across our region. Indeed, model projected rainfall has dwindled from several inches a few days ago to far less than an inch. The most favorable time for precipitation appears to be Friday. Have retained earlier advertised mostly chance pops through the Thursday/Friday time frame, with pops decreasing Saturday. Temperatures will trend much cooler behind the front/upper trough late in the week with low temperatures dipping into the 30s and high temperatures dropping back to the 50s and 60s. Still no widespread indication of a freeze yet though. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 145 PM EDT Sunday... With high pressure across the region, primarily VFR conditions are expected through approximately 06Z/2AM Monday. After this point, look for a another late night/early morning of mainly river and mountains valley BR/FG development and accompanying LIFR/IFR ceilings in the same general vicinity. Much like this morning, any sub-VFR conditions will improve to VFR by 14Z/10AM across most locations. Some isolated spots may keep sub-VFR conditions until almost 16Z/noon. Winds will generally be light and variable during the daylight hours, and calm overnight. Extended aviation discussion... Through Thursday morning, VFR conditions are expected during the daylight hours, with redevelopment overnight of river and mountain valley fog and associated low stratus layers/ceilings. There likely will be trend towards increased foggy conditions as the week progresses as dew point values inch upward each day. A cold front is expected to move through the region Thursday night into early Friday. Expect the initial onset of scattered showers across western sections by Thursday afternoon. A southwest to northwest wind shift is expected to occur Thursday night across the region with gusty winds in its wake continuing into Friday. Areas of sub-VFR conditions will likely accompany the front and precipitation associated with it.
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&& .CLIMATE... As of 515 PM EDT Saturday... Record maximum temperatures through Thursday, Oct 20. Oct 16 Location Record Max Bluefield.....81 in 1989 Danville......89 in 1985 Lynchburg.....89 in 1897 Roanoke.......85 in 1930 Blacksburg....80 in 1992 Oct 17 Location Record Max Bluefield.....78 in 2000 Danville......88 in 1989 Lynchburg.....88 in 1908 Roanoke.......86 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1989 Oct 18 Location Record Max Bluefield.....79 in 2007 Danville......86 in 2007 Lynchburg.....91 in 1938 Roanoke.......91 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1953 Oct 19 Location Record Max Bluefield.....81 in 1984 Danville......85 in 1953 Lynchburg.....88 in 1938 Roanoke.......91 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1991 Oct 20 Location Record Max Bluefield.....79 in 1993 Danville......88 in 1984 Lynchburg.....85 in 1993 Roanoke.......84 in 2005 Blacksburg....82 in 1985 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...DS/WP SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...MBS/RAB AVIATION...DS CLIMATE...AMS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.