Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 160133 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 933 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER INTO MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING RATHER COOL BUT OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 930 PM EDT MONDAY... LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AT BOONE AND JEFFERSON. ADJUSTED THE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS NW NC FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PLENTY OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIP WHERE IT DOES RAIN. AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY... A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK THETA-E RIDGING AT THE SFC AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. MODELS OVERALL PAINT A PICTURE OF LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH PASSING OF ONE SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE...SO KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IN THE SE WV MOUNTAINS. FORECAST OTHERWISE IS ON TRACK. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY CLOUDY EVENING WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND CANADA WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING AND CHANGE OF AIR MASS WILL BE MODEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 TEMPS FALLING JUST A FEW DEGREES AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING OFFSETTING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF TODAY..UPPER 60S FAR NW TO LOW 80S OUT EAST WITH MORE UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE WEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY... UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES THIS TIME FRAME WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE COMING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS INCREASE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES..ABOVE ONE INCH ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA BEHIND THIS WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FINALLY DRIVE SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGED DOWN THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. ECMWF/GFS BLEND IS FAVORED WHICH BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF LOWERS 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE +4 TO +8 RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY... MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLF/LWB SITES. ISSUE OVERNIGHT AGAIN MAY BE FOG. ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED SO ATTM...NO MAJOR THREAT OF TERMINALS. WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT THEN EDGE INTO MVFR WITH TEMPO IFR ACROSS THE BCB/LWB SITES. ANY FOG LIFTS TUESDAY AROUND 12-14Z...WITH BKN VFR CIGS TAKING SHAPE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SKIRT BY BLF/BCB AFTER 15Z. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK BEFORE WEDGING IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE PESKY DEEP MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE WITH TRAPPED RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY KEEP SOUTHERN/WESTERN LOCATIONS STUCK IN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ESPCLY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL EAST/SE FLOW TAKES SHAPE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...CF/PC/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...JH/PC/WP

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