Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 280925 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 525 AM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move along a stalled front from the mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley today and tonight. This wavy frontal system will remain across the region through Monday. The front is expected to drift south and dissipate next Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 430 AM EDT Thursday Cluster of showers and thunderstorms was tracking northeast through western part of the county warning area at 400AM. High resolution guidance has a majority of this precipitation north of the forecast area at 13Z/9AM. There will be some residual cloud cover this morning which will cut back on the potential heating and instability. Temperatures will still climb into the 80s today in the mountains and into the 90s in the piedmont. Starting with muggy conditions this morning in part due to surface dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heat index will top out around 100 in the east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon but will fall short of advisory level values. Short waves over the mid Mississippi valley early this morning are forecast to track into the Ohio Valley by Friday morning. This will provide better synoptic scale lift plus forecast area will be in the right entrance region of the upper jet this afternoon and evening. low and mid level winds increase from the southwest to west by late this afternoon which will increase the helicity. Bufkit forecast soundings were showing some decent speed shear. Directional shear becomes stronger this afternoon too as the surface low that was over southeast Missouri this morning moves east and backs the surface winds to the southeast. Once the short wave moves east...surface through mid level winds turn to the northwest and best lift will be confined to the western county warning area. No change in air mass overnight so minimum temperatures will be similar to past few mornings. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT THURSDAY... A shallow slow moving upper trof will remain across the eastern part of the country through the weekend. This will keep a steady stream of short waves moving through the region, along with deep moisture and a lingering frontal boundary just off to our southeast. This pattern will produce broad synoptic lift and enhance convective activity that develops in the unstable environment, and give us increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend with the best chances mainly along and west of the Blue Ridge. Shear will be limited so any marginal severe threat will be with pulse storms/clusters, and the concern for hydro issues will be growing as successive rounds of locally heavy rain will start to add up. Temperatures will be right around normal for late July with highs generally around 90 east of the Ridge, low/mid 80s west. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday... The generalized pattern over the CONUS will be slow to change in the extended period as upper ridge builds over the western states an broad troughing takes hold across the eastern U.S. Expect several shortwaves will crest the western ridge and help to amplify the eastern trough early in the period. Meanwhile a surface frontal boundary will persist in the vicinity of the mid-Atlantic through the period oscillating somewhat north and south in response to short- wave activity and modified by rounds of mainly afternoon/evening convection. The air mass will remain warm and humid through the period with daily highs near to slightly above normal and lows above normal due to the high humidity and considerable cloudiness at times. By Wednesday indications are that H5 heights will begin to rise again with somewhat drier and hotter conditions for mid-week period. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Thursday... Area of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and visibilities over eastern Kentucky and southwest Virginia will continue to move northeast this morning. Along the Blue Ridge and into the piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina areas of fog and stratus will develop. Observations showed high surface dew points with little to no dew point depression. High confidence of IFR to LIFR fog at KBCB and KLWB this morning. Medium confidence how far visibilities will drop at KBLF and KROA. The fog will dissipate after sunrise with VFR visibility by 14Z/10AM. May take longer for ceilings to lift back to VFR. Storms will develop over the mountains during the early afternoon and then move east into the foothills and piedmont during the mid- late afternoon. There is a high likelihood for VCTS for all of the flight terminals in the central Appalachians this afternoon but timing of MVFR conditions too uncertain to include in the body of the TAFs at this time. Bufkit showed a favorable shear profile for more organized storms and the potential for microburst winds within the thunderstorm cores leading to isolated surface gusts of 30-50kts. Coverage of thunderstorms will diminish after sunset in the piedmont. Scattered showers will continue in the mountains overnight. Models suggested ceilings will lower to MVFR with deep westerly winds around 06Z. Have not lowered the ceilings in the TAFS at this point. Extended aviation discussion... An upper ridge of high pressure will remain just south of the area and a residual frontal boundary will remain over the area through Monday. This will allow for periodic, mainly diurnally driven, deep convection. A more widespread sub-VFR potential exists into Friday per a strong wave of low pressure which will ripple east along a stalled front. After the passage of this wave, some decrease in coverage of precipiation is expected over the weekend. In addition to the thunderstorm threat, late night and early morning fog will likely occur at the usual valley locations. && .CLIMATE... Record warm minimum temperatures for July 28 Bluefield WV.....69 in 2010 Danville VA......76 in 1997 Lynchburg VA.....77 in 1930 Roanoke VA.......80 in 1930 Blacksburg VA....68 in 1987 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS/PC AVIATION...AMS/PM CLIMATE...AMS

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