Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 130125 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 925 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT LEAVING A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONG SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 845 PM EDT SATURDAY... FAINT RESIDUAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. LATEST IR PICS SHOW LEFTOVER HIGH BASED CU ALL BUT GONE PER LOSS OF HEATING WITH ONLY SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS LEFT TO PUSH ACROSS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THINK MOST OF THIS NOT ENOUGH TO DETER A MAINLY CLEAR FORECAST SO REDUCED SKY COVER THROUGH DAYBREAK GIVEN LIKELY THIN NATURE TO THE CI PER DRYNESS ALOFT OFF EVENING RAOBS. SOME SPOTTY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER BOTTOMS SO LEFT IN PLACE GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ALSO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND PASSING CLOUDS TO AGAIN GO BELOW MOS ESPCLY VALLEYS WHERE MAY APPROACH 40 IN SPOTS...WHILE THE RIDGES STAY IN THE LOW/MID 50S UNDER LIGHT MIXING ALOFT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY... EXPECT A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON PER HEATING/LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY AND INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE WILL BE LACKING. APPEARS CU FROM VISUAL OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEBCAMS SHOWING NO/LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...SO NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES. LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND CU/SPRINKLES FADE. AT THIS TIME...SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG ALONG THE RIVER BOTTOMS BY DAWN. MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S VALLEYS TO LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARM WITH SW FLOW INCREASING. DEWPOINTS EDGE UP SOME AS WELL. CU SHOULD FORM IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING...BUT LACK OF FORCING WILL LEAD TO SPRINKLES AT BEST OVER THE SW VA/NW NC MTNS AT BEST. COULD SEE RECORD HIGHS APPROACHED AT THE MOUNTAIN CLIMATE SITES BCB/BLF/LWB. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70 ALONG THE CUSP OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANYS...TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY... A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF AN UPSLOPE TO RESULT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MAINLY AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS. COVERAGE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS...WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST. COOLER HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WITH VALUES FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD COMBINE WITH LINGERING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWER IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS YET ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY... MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DISPLAYED DIFFERENT OPINIONS ON THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOOK SIMILAR ON THE ECMWF AND GFS. FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE LEANING TOWARDS THE ECENS AND NAEFS MEANS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BRING COOL DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF FROSTY MORNINGS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ADDED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER STARTING COOL ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 655 PM EDT SATURDAY... HIGH BASED SCTD-BKN CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY FADE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IN SPOTS ESPCLY AROUND KLWB AS WINDS GO LIGHT BUT VERY ISOLATED AND ONLY BRIEF MVFR VSBY AT WORST PER DRY AIR IN PLACE. SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES SUNDAY DURING THE MORNING AND THEN PICKS UP AT THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AND DEEP MIXING. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 15Z/11AM SUNDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS AND THEN 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO PERHAPS AROUND 25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTRW CONTINUED VFR SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING WHEN SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS LOOKS POSSIBLE ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS SOUTH. START TO SEE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN THESE. MONDAY NIGHT...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR LIKELY AT THIS POINT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ACT TO KEEP MVFR CIGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. VFR THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NW. && .CLIMATE... WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS AT OUR MOUNTAIN CLIMATE SITES SUNDAY APR 13. THE ROA/LYH/DAN SITE RECORDS ARE OUT OF REACH...SO NOT INCLUDED IN THIS SECTION. STATION RECORD/YEAR/RECORDS BEGAN FORECAST HIGH APR 13TH BLACKSBURG 80/1977/1952 78 BLUEFIELD 81/1977/1959 80 LEWISBURG 79/1977/1973 78 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP CLIMATE...WP

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