Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 110540 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 140 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY... SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE ERIE...SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...WERE GUSTY AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE SUBSIDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PER NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING. LOW LEVEL JET...WITH 30-40KTS...STILL EXISTS AT 85H FROM BNA-PIT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ALONG OUR RIDGE TOPS...OCCASIONALLY MIXING INTO THE VALLEYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED UP ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN SPITE OF THE DEWPOINT REMAINING IN THE U20S TO L30S. THE COLD FRONT WILL INCH ITS WAY CLOSER ON FRIDAY...ENTERING OUR FAR NW CWA...SOUTHEAST WV COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED...WITH VERY LITTLE PREFRONTAL CLOUDINESS. MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY FRIDAY UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...AND ONLY THEN WOULD THERE BE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS. WITH DEEPER MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT IT TO BE A LITTLE BREEZIER ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...READINGS TOPING OUT IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 80 IN THE PIEDMONT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZING CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SUGGESTS INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR BRUSH FIRES. MAY NEED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE FORECAST FIRE DANGER CLASS WILL BE HIGHER AND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE ACTIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES AS FAR SOUTH AS SRN VA FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN LIFT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF IT AS WEAK VORT MOVES FROM ERN TN THROUGH NRN NC. MODELS ARE OVERALL IN AGREEMENT TO KEEPING BEST THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NRN CWA. ATTM...WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SE WV TO PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS TO LITTLE TO NO THREAT SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NW NC. FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH SW FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD STAY WARM SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. 8H TEMPS SUNDAY ACTUALLY CLIMB TO +10 TO +14C COOLEST OVER THE PIEDMONT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 ACROSS WESTERN VALLEYS GIVEN STRONG WAA...AND ALSO IN THE PIEDMONT...WHILE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE STAY IN THE 70S. COULD POTENTIALLY APPROACH/ATTAIN RECORD HIGHS IN BLF/LWB/BCB SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 114 PM EDT THURSDAY... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY. SYSTEM HAS TWO DISTINCT STREAMS TO WORK WITH...AND QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM OCCURS. 00Z ECMWF KEEP THE STREAMS UNPHASED BUT SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM TO BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCE NE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. A STRONGER SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST/GA/FL TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER SYSTEM CLOSING OFF HERE AS WELL WHICH COULD HANG THE FRONT UP SOME. KEPT POPS IN THE EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WX TAKING PLACE WED-THU. APPEARS COLDER AIR WILL BE LAGGING ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS OR PHASES TO GET SOME WET SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THERE WILL BE A STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW TURNING NE. WEDGE SETS UP BUT CLOUD COVER LOOKS MINIMAL SO ONLY A MODEST EFFECT ON TEMPS. AT THIS TIME...KEEPING IT DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT POTENTIAL FOR RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE PIEDMONT EXISTS AS FLOW TURNS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. TEMPS OVERALL THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 135 AM EDT FRIDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH THE END OF THE 06Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. ENOUGH DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING TO RESULT IN 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FOR LWB AND BLF...THERE WILL BE A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD EVENING. AT THE MOMENT...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. .EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH BY SUNDAY. DUE TO WEAK FORCING...IT APPEARS THAT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY STAY MOSTLY VFR. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER WHILE THE FRONT IS IN CLOSER TO BLF AND LWB. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO AVIATION IS EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST TO TRIGGER A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT WILL DEPART.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON FRIDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE PEAK HEATING PART OF THE DAY. AIR TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL ALSO APPROACH 80 DEGREES WITH HUMIDITY MINIMUMS NEAR 25 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH A HIGH FIRE DANGER CLASS SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WILDLAND FIRE ACTIVITY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...AMS/PW FIRE WEATHER...PM

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