Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 200016 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 816 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY... 1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CENTER WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY. UNTIL THE EASTERLY WIND WEAKENS...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BANKED AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE TO ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SATURDAY. WIND FLOW SHOULD TURN JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOW CLOUDINESS TO DEPART RESULTING IN MORE CLEARING SATURDAY AND MORE SUN. MORE SUN MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY REFLECT ADJMAV MOS WITH VALUES FROM LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY... A SLIVER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HEADS NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF STREAM. BY SUNDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE COOL WEDGE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH IN EASTERN CANADA...SO QPF DOES NOT APPEAR IMPRESSIVE FOR SUNDAY EVENING. CAPE APPROACHES 500-1000 J/KG ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S...SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH AN EXPECTED WEST WIND THAT WILL AID IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING OVER THE PIEDMONT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OVER THE CWA. WITH DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER DURING THE DAY...AS A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH HEADS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY JUST IN TIME FOR THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX. IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE THE FIRST DAY OF FALL BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MOS GUIDANCE DEPICTING LOW TEMPERATURES VARYING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST REGION ON TUESDAY...STARTING THE DAY CENTERED OVER THE MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WE CAN EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING...WHERE THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL AS IT RUNS INTO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE...DRAWING AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF MARINE AIR INTO OUR REGION. AS SUCH...EXPECT INCREASED STRATUS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE. MARINE AIR WILL ALSO SUPPORT SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY... LIGHT EASTERLY WIND WILL KEEP CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS VCNTY OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE SATURDAY AS THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WEAKENS. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...DISSIPATING SUNDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...KK/PM SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...PM

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