Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 160811 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 411 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will shift south into the Carolinas by Monday. This high stays situated off the Southeast Coast through midweek bringing much warmer temperatures to the area. Next cold front arrives Thursday into Friday.
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As of 400 AM EDT Sunday... Quiet weather today with surface high off the mid-Atlantic coast. Will see some low clouds this morning across the Blue Ridge and either side, though even latest satellite showing more breaks. The flow turns more southerly today so expect some scattered to broken cumulus across the southern Blue Ridge into WV. Should be dry though a few models spitting out light qpf in the Southern Appalachians. Sprinkles could occur in the High Country of NC. Warmer today with highs from the upper 60s in the NC mountains with lower to mid 70s elsewhere. Tonight the surface high will be situated across North Carolina, with light winds. A return flow and some mixing will keep the higher terrain toward Bluefield, WV milder than deeper valleys. Look for mainly clear skies with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the deeper valleys, with mid to upper 60s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... A fairly progressive low amplitude upper pattern over the lower 48 will push relatively flat ridging into the eastern US as the main jet resides well to our north through the first part of next week. This will allow high pressure to slide off to our southeast and take up a position off the coast, swinging winds around to a southwesterly direction and bringing a surge of warm air into the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region. This is more reminiscent of a summertime pattern and our temperatures will respond accordingly, but with a continued lack of deeper synoptic moisture it appears that our stretch of dry weather will continue into midweek. Temperatures to start the week will be well above normal with lower 80s expected east of the Blue Ridge and mid/upper 70s to the west. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... Still much uncertainty in the forecast toward the end of the week. Model guidance continues to be in good agreement in continuing our stretch of very warm weather through Wednesday, but then solutions diverge in the evolution of a trof moving through the midsection of the country. If there is a trend developing, it appears to be favoring a more progressive open wave solution as opposed to a closed cutoff over the southeast. At this point, believe following the lead of WPC in favoring an ensemble blend is reasonable given the disparity of the deterministic model runs. Thus, it looks like our chances for precipitation will be increasing on Thursday as a cold front approaches. Friday and Friday night look wettest as a coastal low develops and stalls the front over the region. We continue with a good chance of precipitation into Saturday before the coastal low pulls off into New England and we get some improvement for Sunday. Again, there is much uncertainty in the evolution of this pattern and things are subject to change as later model runs hopefully start to converge on a solution. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 134 AM EDT Sunday... Quite a bit of low level moisture trapped under inversion along and east of the Blue Ridge. This is resulting in MVFR cigs at all sites but BLF/LWB/DAN. However, getting dense fog developing at LWB thanks to clear skies. Expect some periods of vsby improvement with increase of low clouds at times, but overall keeping LWB down in fog through mid morning. Danville should start to see some MVFR ceilings around 08z coming in from the southwest. Appears moisture will be shallow enough to get sunshine at most sites by mid-late morning Sunday, so VFR expected thereafter despite weak mixing. Extended aviation discussion... Looking for mostly VFR conditions through Wednesday aside from late night/early morning patchy dense fog in the river valleys. Frontal boundary shifts toward the area Thursday with chance of showers. May see some MVFR cigs but overall looks like we are in a warm sector so most stay VFR even with showers. && .CLIMATE... As of 515 PM EDT Saturday... Record maximum temperatures through Thursday, Oct 20. Oct 16 Location Record Max Bluefield.....81 in 1989 Danville......89 in 1985 Lynchburg.....89 in 1897 Roanoke.......85 in 1930 Blacksburg....80 in 1992 Oct 17 Location Record Max Bluefield.....78 in 2000 Danville......88 in 1989 Lynchburg.....88 in 1908 Roanoke.......86 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1989 Oct 18 Location Record Max Bluefield.....79 in 2007 Danville......86 in 2007 Lynchburg.....91 in 1938 Roanoke.......91 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1953 Oct 19 Location Record Max Bluefield.....81 in 1984 Danville......85 in 1953 Lynchburg.....88 in 1938 Roanoke.......91 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1991 Oct 20 Location Record Max Bluefield.....79 in 1993 Danville......88 in 1984 Lynchburg.....85 in 1993 Roanoke.......84 in 2005 Blacksburg....82 in 1985 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...MBS/RAB AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP CLIMATE...AMS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.