Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

FXUS61 KRNK 171658

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1258 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

High pressure will take up residency along the southeast coast of
the United States through at least Thursday and provide mild and
dry conditions to our region. A cold front will cross the area
Thursday night into Friday along with its associated showers.
Gusty winds are expected behind the front Friday into Friday


As of 1255 PM EDT Monday...

Expect no major changes to the forecast through the remainder of
the afternoon hours. Have only made minor adjustments to
temperature, dew point, wind, and sky cover to reflect the latest
observations and expected trends through the afternoon. Earlier
forecast high temperatures have been adjusted by no more than plus
or minus two degrees.

As of 950 AM EDT Monday...

Fog has been slowly dissipating across the area. Most of the
remaining fog is confined to parts of the New and Greenbrier River
valleys, as well as, the valleys of the southern Alleghany
Highlands. The dissipation trend is expected to continue with
fog-free conditions expected everywhere between 1100 AM and noon.
Have prolonged the river and mountain valley fog accordingly in
the forecast in these regions. No other notable adjustments were
made at this time.

As of 717 AM EDT Monday...

Fog is pretty dense in some of the river valleys this morning but
not enough coverage for advisory, so special wx statement covers
this til 8am. Fog will burn off around 9am, leaving mainly sunny
skies the rest of the day outside some scattered cirrus or

Previous discussion from early this morning...

Building heights from the southwest expected this period as
shortwave over New England exits. Anticipate a mainly sunny and warm
mid October day. A few cirrus and cumulus appears in order but not
much effect on sunshine. Going to see highs around 10 degrees above
normal. Not expecting any records today, though Bluefield may get
close. See climate section below.

Tonight, not much change to the previous forecast with some increase
in dewpoints as southwest flow increases in the low to mid levels.
Overall using a blend with lows mainly in the mid 50s to around 60.
Fog will be patchy in the river valleys, with mainly clear, moon-lit


As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

High pressure will remain anchored off the North Carolina coast into
Wednesday night. Upper level ridging will continue across the
Southeast United States.  Southwest flow at the surface will bring
warmer and moister air from the Gulf of Mexico toward the Mid
Atlantic region.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
See the climate section below for record highs that could be in
jeopardy during this timeframe. Under plenty of sunshine, High
temperatures will range from the lower 70s in the mountains to the
lower to mid 80s in the Piedmont. Lows will be elevated as well with
readings from the mid 50s in the west to the lower 60s in the east.
The combination of warm air advection and increasing low-level
moisture may create areas of fog during the overnight hours.

As the upper level trough deepens over the central CONUS, a cold
front will push into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night.  This front
will be far enough to our west to keep its associated moisture
northwest of our region.


As of 1245 PM EDT Sunday...

Thursday begins with an organizing upper level trough over the Great
Lakes and a cold front approaching the Appalachian Mountains. The
latest 12Z GFS has come into better agreement with the previous
ECMWF solutions regarding the timing of the frontal passage. Both
models depict the chance of showers starting Thursday afternoon west
of I-81 and spreading eastward by Thursday night. However, rainfall
amounts continue to trend lower with the latest runs showing QPF
about a half an inch or less. Overall, the models favor a frontal
passage during Thursday night into Friday with the best chance of
showers advertised along and west of the Blue Ridge.

Afterward, the 12Z GFS still tries to develop a blocky pattern by
cutting off the upper level trough along the Southeast coast toward
Friday night, but the progressive ECMWF pattern that portrays the
cold front heading offshore by Friday night continues to be favored
more among the ensemble models. Therefore, chances of showers have
been nudged downward for Saturday, but some lingering upslope
showers remain possible in southeast West Virginia. Cooler northwest
flow behind the front will send low temperatures dipping into the
40s, while highs will only reach the 50s and 60s. Dry conditions
return by Sunday and should continue into next week with high
pressure overhead.


As of 719 AM EDT Monday...

Fog will be burn off around 13-14z with VFR expected the rest of
the day under a light southwest flow. Some cumulus possible but
scattered at best.

A bit of fog again late tonight similar to this morning. With
clear skies and light winds, but increasing dewpoints, fog will be
more prevalent at the typical sites...LWB/BCB. Still not going to
go all the way over to LIFR for BCB keeping it 2sm around 08z, but
LWB should have dense fog. MVFR to IFR fog also seems possible at

Extended aviation discussion...

Through Thursday morning, VFR conditions are expected during the
daylight hours, with redevelopment overnight of river and
mountain valley fog and associated IFR to LIFR stratus
layers/ceilings. Fog will be more widespread each night as the
week progresses due to rising surface dew points and increasing
low level moisture.

A cold front is expected to move through the region Thursday night
into early Friday. Expect the initial onset of scattered showers
across western sections by Thursday afternoon. A southwest to
northwest wind shift is expected to occur Thursday night across
the region with gusty winds behind the front continuing into
Friday. Areas of sub-VFR conditions will likely accompany the
front and precipitation associated with it.


As of 125 AM EDT Monday...

Temperatures will be above seasonal levels for most of the week,
though our record highs may be hard to reach, except for perhaps
for Blacksburg or Bluefield, mainly Wednesday.

Record maximum temperatures through Thursday, Oct 20.

Oct 17

Location      Record Max
Bluefield.....78 in 2000
Danville......88 in 1989
Lynchburg.....88 in 1908
Roanoke.......86 in 1938
Blacksburg....80 in 1989

Oct 18

Location      Record Max
Bluefield.....79 in 2007
Danville......86 in 2007
Lynchburg.....91 in 1938
Roanoke.......91 in 1938
Blacksburg....80 in 1953

Oct 19

Location      Record Max
Bluefield.....81 in 1984
Danville......85 in 1953
Lynchburg.....88 in 1938
Roanoke.......91 in 1938
Blacksburg....80 in 1991

Oct 20

Location      Record Max
Bluefield.....79 in 1993
Danville......88 in 1984
Lynchburg.....85 in 1993
Roanoke.......84 in 2005
Blacksburg....82 in 1985




CLIMATE...AMS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.