-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 302341
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
641 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND ABOUT OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER WEATHER
UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION SUNDAY...AND
REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM EST FRIDAY...

PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL TIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CORE OF LOW LVL HIGH WINDS ARE
OVERHEAD AND MOVING EAST. THE WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME OVER
THE AREA AND AS THE EVENING WEARS ON LOOKS LIKE NO SECOND SURGE IS
EXPECTED PER UPSTREAM TRENDS. MAY CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY
BUT WILL SEE IF WINDS BOOST UP AGAIN AS INVERSION LOWERS THROUGH
THE NEXT HOUR.

JUST FEW WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR WESTERN GREENBRIER AND EXPECT THE
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO END AROUND LATE EVENING/MIDNIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 215 PM...
FINAL WAVE ALOFT WITHIN THE BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN MOISTURE AS
BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST ACCUMULATING UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
NW EARLY ON ESPCLY GIVEN THE PASSING OF THE COLDEST AIR AT 85H AND
SOME GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE JET ALOFT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES GIVEN LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO KEEPING SO LOW POPS OR FLURRY MENTION GOING NW
THIRD THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE APPEARS THE
STRONGEST OF THE SURFACE WINDS WILL EXIT AFTER DARK WITH PERHAPS A
SECOND SURGE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING BEFORE
SPEEDS DROP BELOW CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER STILL GUSTY ON THE
RIDGES GIVEN THE SLOWNESS OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST AND THE
FORECAST REMAINING PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF MOST MODELS. SHOULD FINALLY
SEE SKIES CLEAR FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST THIS EVENING AND ALL EXCEPT
THE FAR NW SLOPES LATE GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE OFF THE NAM. EXPECT
ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH A
FEW SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST
DESPITE CONTINUED MIXING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING A FEW
AREAS INCLUDING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREENBRIER AND BATH INTO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY UNDER DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS GIVEN 85H WARMING.
SOME INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER THE FAST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE/DRY AIR...WENT ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOST ESPCLY EAST WHERE LOW/MID 40S LIKELY WHILE KEEPING THE
WEST MAINLY 30S TO AROUND 40 GIVEN THE 85H NW TRAJECTORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER KEEPING DRY AIR...DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...IN THE REGION. A
WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY TO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS
WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTH TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE
AIR COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW TO FALL IN THE MORNING. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY NOON. THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 40S WEST AND LOWER 50S EAST.

ALSO ON SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF THE
ROCKIES SPAWNING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL THEN TRACK TO THE OZARKS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS LOW
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A WARM AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SHORT
WAVES AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WHILE DEW POINTS AND WET BULB INCREASE INTO
THE 30S. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THIS DRY AIR
     IT MAY START OUT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX...BUT WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO A COLD RAIN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND
ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WITH 85H TEMPERATURES 4C
OR WARMER. THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT ENTER RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WILL DELAY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY NOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE AND BRIEF UPSLOPE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHUTTING OFF MOISTURE FEED.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MORNING HIGHS IN THE 30F-35F RANGE IN
THE WEST TO A LATE MORNING MAX IN THE EAST IN THE M/U 40S. ALSO
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING HIGH WINDS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ONLY THING
LACKING FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE HIND WIND WATCH/WARNING IS A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ARE ONLY DISPLAYING A 40KT JET OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH HIGHER SPEEDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS QUIET WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK COASTAL LOW. 850MB TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT EARLY TUE MORNING IN THE -13C RANGE GREENBRIER COUNTY
TOWARD -6C ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BE IDEAL...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS WHERE THERE SHOULD
BE AMPLE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...LEADING TO LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS VALLEYS WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOW 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS IS NOT
BITTERLY COLD...AS IN SOME PREVIOUS EVENTS WITH 850MB TEMPS -20C
OR BETTER...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE 30S
WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

WEDNESDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM. AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE ANY CLEAR ANSWERS FOR THIS EVENT EITHER. DISTINCT NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS ARE EVIDENT WED...WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CHI-MCI...REASONABLY CONSISTENT AMONG
BOTH MODELS. WHAT IS NOT CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...IS A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM RACING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS THIS BACK ALONG THE
TX COAST. THE ECMWF TRACKS THIS FEATURE WELL SOUTH KEEPING IT ACROSS
GA/SC...THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS IT PLUNGES AN ARCTIC
HIGH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY...CLEARLY FOCUSING ON THE
NORTHERN STREAM. MEANWHILE...THE GFS TRACKS THIS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE SC/NC COAST AND GENERATES A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE OUTER BANKS
OF NC. THE GFS HAS AN EQUIVALENT ARCTIC HIGH...BUT HOLDS IT BACK
NORTH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HENCE...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ADVERTISED WITH THESE TWO
PATTERNS. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW TRACKING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT/THU...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THU/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
TYPICAL UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU. HAVE TAKEN A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...WHICH GENERALLY AGREES WITH
THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...AS OPPOSED TO ANY ONE MODEL. IF THE GFS
SOLUTION IS RIGHT...THERE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...AND AGAIN ISSUES WITH P-TYPE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO
AT THIS POINT THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM EST FRIDAY...

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL CENTER MORE ON WINDS AND COLD TEMPS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE MTNS OF WV
ERODING AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY...STAYING GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL POUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST SAT AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KBCB/KROA/KLYH...COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE
ONSET WITH MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT OVERALL. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH VFR RETURNING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014-
     016>020-022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR VAZ020.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...JH/PM/WP