Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 241953 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 353 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PIVOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...MOVING TO THE EAST COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FROST TO FORM IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IS NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST TO FORM...BUT ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY. FYI...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS WILL END SATURDAY. UNTIL THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS NEXT SPRING...THIS WILL BE THE LAST FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. AS TYPICAL WITH DRY FALL FRONTS...BREEZY/GUSTS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT WHILE RIDGES REMAIN MILD NEAR 40F. IN THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL RANGE IN THE 60S WHILE 70S ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY... A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST WEST WIND...CLOUDS WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT...WILL HAVE DRIZZLE AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE AND REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ADVANCE TO THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW INTO A RELATIVE DRY AIR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO MOVE EAST OF RNK EXTREME WESTERN SLOPES. DRY FALL FRONTAL PASSAGES TYPICAL RESULT IN BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL BE TRUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE WINDS TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM FRONT. DESPITE A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS TO THE MID 70S EAST. THE PASSING OF A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY...70S AREAWIDE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FOR ONE MORE DAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE GENEROUS WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD SLOW DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF. SURPRISINGLY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WHEN THE TYPICAL BIAS BETWEEN THESE MODELS IS THE OTHER WAY. THEY EVENTUALLY AGREE ON STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER AND IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A FLATTER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1209 PM EDT FRIDAY... EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS AND MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES BECOME CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT BLF AND LWB...NONE ELSEWHERE. ANY FOG SATURDAY WILL DISSIPATE BY 10A. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN SLOPES (BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL REMAIN VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ011>017. NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-002- 018. WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ044-507.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RCS SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...RCS

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