Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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035 FXUS61 KRNK 160017 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 817 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The weather pattern will remain very warm and muggy with a daily threat of showers and thunderstorms. Greatest concentration of storms today is expected along and east of the Blue Ridge where opportunity for localized flooding is possible due to the storms being very rain efficient. Rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches an hour are possible, and this may lead to flooding if a storm lingers over an area for even a short amount of time. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 800 PM EDT Monday... Ongoing storms across the area will continue for the next several hours. Very heavy rainfall, resulting in areas of Flash Flooding will be the primary threat. Should see storm intensity an coverage subside by midnight to just a few isolated downpours overnight. Likely to see fog again through the early morning hours, especially across locations that received rain today. Discussion as of 200 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1) More showers this afternoon and evening with potential for flash flooding and severe weather again 2) A Flood Watch is in effect from 2PM-Midnight for counties mainly east of the Blue Ridge. With increased CAPE as diurnal heating continues to intensify, convection has begun to kick off, especially along the ridgelines where orographic effects aid the initial instability. A light mean wind will cause most storms to drift almost aimlessly with a slow speed, and new storms will largely be outflow driven. PWATs today are abnormally high, much like recent afternoons as well, ranging from 1.5-2" where highest amounts are in the Piedmont. Rain showers and storms will be efficient rain producers, and rates in excess of 2"/hr would not be surprising. Inside of a slow moving cell, flash flooding could begin quickly, especially in urban areas or areas which have saturated soils (which is most of the forecast area east of the Blue Ridge). A Flood Watch is in effect for much of the afternoon through tonight to address these hydrologic concerns east of the Blue Ridge. Temperatures are generally above normal, but maximum temperatures this afternoon will be dependent upon the occurrence of storms and the length of time spent underneath those storms. Blocking insolation and cool downdrafts in the core of a cell will cause localized cooling. Wednesday`s forecast will effectively be a persistence forecast, as the stationary boundary to our north remains and the air mass overhead will be high in moisture and above normal in temperatures. Another afternoon of scattered showers and thunderstorms with the potential for high rain rates is likely.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 102 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. 2) Conditions will stay warm and humid throughout the remainder of this work week. An upper level ridge off the southeast coast will keep warm and humid conditions in the area through the period. High temperatures will range in the 80s across the mountains to upper 80s to lower 90s in the foothills and piedmont. Dew points will run in the mid 60s to lower 70s west of the Blue Ridge and in the low to mid 70s east. With the high humidity and light winds, temperatures will feel 3F-8F warmer than they actual are, especially in the afternoon. The combination of heat and moisture will also spark scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. PWATs are forecast to be in the 1.50 to 2.00 inch range. Spotty thunderstorms could produce 1-2 inches of rain in less than an hour. Some isolated slow-moving storms may also drop 3+ inches of rain in an hour or two. With a wet weather pattern the last several days, there will likely remain a Marginal Risk for Flash Flooding each day along and east of the Blue Ridge. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 124 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is moderate for chances of showers and thunderstorms to continue every afternoon. 2) Little change in the air mass is anticipated during the weekend and into early next week. The upper ridge in the west Atlantic will drift to the east but will continue to keep its warm and humid influence on the region. The threat for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will also continue into next week. A cold front is expected to approach the area early next week but may stall to the north. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 815 PM EDT Tuesday... Generally VFR outside of any thunderstorm this evening through midnight. Occasional sub-VFR from storms will be possible with the primary threat being very heavy rainfall. Storms will gradually decrease, giving way to fog development through the early morning hours. A few hours of sub-VFR possible in areas with fog through daybreak, along with low clouds less the 3kft. Clouds will lift through the morning and all terminals should return to VFR through tomorrow evening. Storm chances tomorrow will be less, but any storm will be capable of brief instances of sub-VFR. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The overall pattern remains stagnant for the remainder of this week with a warm and humid air mass providing daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms and an overnight potential for patchy fog. In general, conditions expected to be VFR for most of this week with the exceptions being the aforementioned afternoon storms and overnight fog which will result in tempo sub-vfr conditions.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ022>024-032>035- 043>047-058-059. NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ003>006-019-020. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...BMG/VFJ SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...BMG/VFJ