Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 240455 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1255 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Wedge of cool air will remain in place overnight as a weak wave of low pressure slides east and offshore along a frontal boundary just south of the area. A lull in the rain will occur early Wednesday, before another area of low pressure arrives Wednesday afternoon with more showers which may persist at times through Thursday. Weak high pressure will follow this system for Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1130 PM EDT Tuesday... Had some decent rainfall the past 6-12 hours but overall the flooding threat is still confined to the Dan River, as the rain rates have not been that high. Will keep the flood watch til 2am, as we are watching another area of convection over the Smokys that may sneak into SW VA/NW NC by 1am. However, all high-res models show this area dissipating to light showers or drizzle after 2am, so thinking the expiration of the watch at 2am looks reasonable. Otherwise, overnight we will see less moderate rain but enough low level moisture convergence with southeast flow to keep chancey pops around. Setup favors drizzle at times as well as some fog, especially over the ridges. Previous discussion from early evening... Forecast still looks rainy though some breaks developing in the piedmont though still drizzly/light rain. Shower more focused over the mountains this evening, with high-res models shifting this area northeast through midnight. Should see a drying trend from southwest to northeast by late evening/midnight though not completely dry, given depth of moisture. Will also have to watch upstream convection over Al/northern GA as it moves toward the NC mountains/foothills/piedmont after midnight. The high-res models weaken it, but not so sure this will occur. No changes to the flood watch, with minor flooding still possible though focus looks to shift more toward the mountains. Previous discussion from this afternoon... Radar imagery shows that the shield of precipitation associated with wave of low pressure sliding northward along the front lingering in the east has spread across the piedmont, with a secondary area of precipitation to the west advancing up the mountains. Guidance seems to be handling the wave in the piedmont fairly well, but not so much for the precipitation in the west. Given very wet antecedent conditions in the mountains, have expanded the flood watch to the western border. As dynamic forcing pulls off to the northeast overnight we will see a decrease in precipitation, though fully expect some degree of shower activity to be around through the night. The next wave will move out of the southern Appalachians as a large closed low digs southward into the lower Mississippi valley, with a trailing cold front not pushing through until Wednesday night. These systems will be running into a solid wedge east of the Appalachians, setting up another period of rain with good isentropic lift over the wedge. However, there are good dynamics in place and the wedge will be eroding, allowing instability to creep in from the west and south in s a highly sheared environment, opening a window for embedded thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon with possibly linear organization to embedded convection heading into Wednesday night. The current day 2 SPC outlook for a marginal risk of severe across the south and west portions of our area looks right on target and the situation will be watched closely. Additionally, the expected precipitation tomorrow may warrant another flood watch if later guidance continues to indicate sufficient rainfall. Expect temperatures to fall slowly tonight and remain well below normal through Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday... A slow moving area of upper level low pressure will head eastward through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. A substantial stream of moisture will be advecting into at least the eastern portion of the area early Wednesday evening. As the evening progresses, this moisture axis will shift eastward in concert with the approaching upper level trough axis. Anticipate very good coverage of moderate rain showers and scattered storms to give way to decreasing coverage by late evening, and even less coverage after midnight. The activity across the region after midnight will be associated with cold pool lapse rate with the passage of the trough axis. On Thursday, this trough axis will still be passing overhead, have daytime heating to help fuel additional showers and storms, all while its associated surface front heads east of the region. Expect good coverage of showers and storms during the day with west to northwest wind becoming gusty by the afternoon. Thursday night, northwest flow continues to increase on the backside of the system. Precipitation will quickly decrease in coverage east of the Blue Ridge thanks to increased subsidence. Upslope rain scattered rain showers are forecast across parts of southeast West Virginia during the overnight. Some of the gusts at the higher elevations will be on the order of 30 to 40 mph. On Friday, drier air will continue to work its way into the area, but lingering upslope showers in the west will continue through at least mid-day. Although, coverage will be on the decline. By Friday night, the winds will have weakened as the pressure gradient continues to weaken. Just as conditions trend drier, we will start to watch our next system developing in the mid- Mississippi Valley by late Friday night, with associated leading moisture reaching western parts of the area by sunrise Saturday morning. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will start slightly below normal but trend to readings near normal by Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday... Saturday into Sunday, our weather will turn wet again as low pressure tracks through the Ohio Valley. In advance of this system, a warm front will lift through the region on Saturday, followed by an associated Sunday afternoon and evening. Guidance differs on how promptly this front will exit the region, along with any associated lingering showers. What is more uniform in solution is the position of another closed upper low. Anticipate a slow moving upper low just north of the Great Lakes region to linger through at least Tuesday. Energy pinwheeling around this feature will interact with the remnants of the cold front from the weekend. Additionally, a cold front in association with this upper low will be heading toward our area late in the day Tuesday. The result will be a weekend that will have the potential to be on the wet side, with Monday and Tuesday having scattered activity. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will average a little over five degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1250 AM EDT Wednesday... Expect overall poor flying conditions to prevail at all TAF sites this period. Confidence is high that most if not all sites will stay sub-VFR with periods of IFR or worse through the period. Exceptions at times may be KBLF/KDAN Wednesday afternoon as wedge/stable layer shifts east with thunderstorms possible. At the moment will keep sites on the IFR side with some MVFR at times overnight, but not a big window. Otherwise rain should become more spotty overnight with a possible break in coverage to mainly drizzle/fog by daybreak on Wednesday. Next round of showers and possible storms to return by Wednesday afternoon from west to east with continued overall sub-VFR into the evening. Will keep VCTS mention across the south and west while edging east into KBCB although trends appear slower. Extended Aviation Discussion... Rainfall should become a bit more showery by Thursday with sub-VFR mainly associated with the showers while periods of afternoon VFR possible outside of the convection. Friday will be drier with a better chance of VFR ceilings and visibilities. Another front reaches the area for Saturday with more showers and thunderstorms including sub- VFR conditions into Sunday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... As of 1130 PM EDT Tuesday... Rainfall amounts the past 12 hours have averaged 0.50 to 1 inch over most of the forecast area, with lower amounts in portions of the NC foothills, and amounts approaching 2 inches along the Blue Ridge near Blowing Rock, NC/Wilkes County, as well as the Greenbrier Valley. Appears threat of heavy rain will be over through the overnight, and convection upstream is progged to weaken as it moves into the stable airmass. Still the Dan River is in minor flood at South Boston, and is expected to reach minor flood stage at Danville and Paces. Next round of convection/heavier rains will occur Wednesday afternoon, with most models favoring the same areas to get the higher amounts, with some minor differences, but generally along and either side of the Blue Ridge south of Roanoke, east to southside VA into the NC piedmont. Flood or Flash Flood watches may be needed for these areas if models stay consistent. This will be decided overnight or early Wednesday morning. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ007-009- 010-012-015-016-032-043-044-058. NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ001>006- 018>020. WV...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS/WP NEAR TERM...MBS/WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...JH/MBS/WP HYDROLOGY...JH/MBS

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