-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 251350
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
950 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will linger over the region through Monday.
An upper trough and associated cold front will sweep through the
area Tuesday with a few showers followed by a cooler, drier air
mass. Toward the end of the week, high pressure will move east
of the region into the western Atlantic, allowing much warmer
and more humid air to return to the region along with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM EDT Sunday...

This morning`s limited patchy fog has dissipated. Cloud cover
continues to stream southwest to northeast across mainly central
and eastern parts of the area. As high pressure continues to
build into the area, the extent of this cloud cover will trend
eastward as the day progresses. No significant changes to the
overall forecast are being made this morning. Have made minor
only adjustments in the hourly temperatures, dew points, winds,
and sky cover to reflect the latest observations and expected
trends into the early afternoon.

As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

A diffuse frontal boundary is evident across the extreme
southern parts of the CWA or toward the I-40 corridor in North
Carolina. There is quite a range in dewpoints this hour from the
mid 50s across the Alleghanys and the northwest part of the CWA
to near 70 yet across the southeast part of the CWA, say
Caswell/Halifax areas toward Yadkin. A broad upper trough will
continue to deepen across the Great Lakes today pushing the
baroclinic boundary further south, such that by evening, it
should be located from east central NC into central SC, then
west into central GA. Any showers or thunderstorms today will be
near and south of the front, leaving our entire CWA rain free
today with lower humidity levels and slightly cooler
temperatures, since not only do the dewpoints drop into the 50s
north to 60s south by evening, but the 850mb temperatures show
a marked drop from +18C of the past few days to around +8C by
Monday morning. Some cirrus can be expected as a result of the
prevailing southwest flow aloft as we remain on the east side of
the broad upper trough anchored over the Great Lakes, but SC/CU
development becomes less of a concern with time, even in the
upslope areas of eastern WV.

As noted above, temperatures will be on a cooling trend thanks
to cold advection at 850mb and the deepening upper trough. High
temperatures today will range from the 70s in the northwest to
lower 80s in the southeast, on average about 5 degrees cooler
than what we saw Saturday, with elevations above 3000 ft. likely
only seeing high temperatures in the 60s today. Lows tonight
will be very pleasant for the end of June with widespread lows
in the 50s. A few 40s for lows in places like Lewisburg, Burkes
Garden, and similar across the mountain valleys in the west
would not be unprecedented at all. However, the coolest air of
the week will come after a secondary front moves through the
area Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

An upper level low over the Great Lakes will bring an increase in
clouds Monday afternoon and a chance for rain Tuesday. This low will
open into a trough Tuesday night as it continues to track east and
off the New England coast. Cool high pressure will settle over the
region on Wednesday.

Models vary greatly for Tuesday`s rain chances in timing, confidence
and rainfall amounts. The most agressive is the ECM which has rain
entering the mountains before sunrise Tuesday. The GFS has rain in
the mountains during the morning while the NAM holds everything off
until late in the afternoon. The ECM is very confident on rain
chances Tuesday with PoPs 80-90%. The GFS confidence is 30-50% for
the mountains and zero east of the Blue Ridge. The NAM has likely
PoPs (60%) for only the mountain in the afternoon. Model rainfall
amounts range from half an inch (ECM) to a couple of hundredths
(GFS/NAM).

We favored the GFS solution for a few reasons. First, as the upper
level trough axis pivots over the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic
region, the associated short waves track across central VA and not
down into NC. This pattern and northwest downsloping flow will limit
rain chances east of the Blue Ridge. Second, while the upper level
trough is in play, our flow will be from the northwest. The moisture
source will be limited coming from either the Great Lakes or
residual soil moisture from TS Cindy`s track across WV/OH. There is
no return flow from the Gulf or the Atlantic for rainfall amounts to
match that of the ECM.

While under the influence of an upper level trough and cool
northwest flow, temperatures Monday and Tuesday will run 5F-10F
cooler than normal. Wednesday`s temperatures will also be slight
cooler than normal but will begin a warming trend for the end of the
week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday...

Trough lifts out midweek with height building across the southern
U.S. Surface high will slide east of the region Wednesday night.
Digging trough over the upper midwest to start to build a little
more of heat ridge in the southeast with 591 heights. Will stay
mainly dry but heating up with threat of typical summertime
convection as early as Thursday over the WV mountains, with better
threat Friday-Saturday. Southwest flow aloft increases by Saturday
with a frontal boundary slowly moving toward the Ohio Valley. Should
see an uptick in coverage in convection over the weekend across
the mountains.

Thursday will see moisture increase with highs bumping up another 5
degrees with upper 70s/lower 80s west, mid to upper 80s east. These
warmer temperatures which are close to normal for the end of June
will stick around into July 1st, but the humidity will be more
noticable as well.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 745 AM EDT Sunday...

Moving into an extended period of mostly VFR conditions across
the region over the next few days. The weak front has pushed
southeast of the area down toward the I-40 corridor taking the
showers and thunderstorms with it, along with the deeper
moisture. Flow aloft is still broad west-northwest under the
influence of a broad upper trough deepening across the Great
Lakes. This will continue until Tuesday when a short wave rounds
the base of the upper trough. Following the passage of this
feature, the flow begins to relax, become more zonal, and
eventually southwest as the trough weakens and lifts out.

The only potential through the period for any non-VFR conditions
would be during the late night/early morning hours when any
of the typical spots that decouple and radiate effectively will
see fog development. KDAN was on the edge of deeper moisture all
night and rainfall late in the day Saturday. As a result, they
fogged in just after midnight last night and remained LIFR-VLIFR
much of the night in dense fog. A slight northwest wind and
increased mid/high clouds have allowed the fog to finally break
up there. Given a different synoptic situation Monday morning,
do not see a repeat of this. Given the moist ground from recent
rainfall and the cooler/drier air mass moving into the region
for the first half of the week, fog seems like a reasonable
possibility at sites such as KLWB AND KBCB, but less so
elsewhere. Not overly confident about such tonight because air
mass has not fully transitioned yet and there are some high
clouds skirting the area. Will continue to advertise MVFR BR for
KBCB and KLWB Monday morning as air mass may more effectively
radiate tonight with less clouds and near calm winds.

Winds will be WNW-NW at speeds of 3-6kts before 13Z, then
increase to 6-11kts with low end gusts at most locations during
the 14Z-22Z time frame, diminishing or becoming calm after 00Z.

Medium to high confidence in ceilings through the TAF valid
period.
Medium to high confidence in visibilities through the TAF valid
period.
Medium to high confidence in wind speed/direction through the
TAF valid period.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

A weak disturbance dropping in from the northwest may bring a
period of MVFR cigs along with a few showers to the mountains
late Monday night into Tuesday. Otherwise expecting overall VFR
for Monday through Thursday with some brief late night/early
morning mountain and river valley fog possible.

On Friday, the potential will increase for some brief, localized
sub-VFR conditions as shower and thunderstorm chances increase.
More widespread, still diurnally driven convection expected
Saturday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...DS/RAB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS/WP
AVIATION...RAB