Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 191643 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1243 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A front will remain over the Carolinas today into Sunday before dissipating. High pressure works in from the Ohio Valley during the weekend, then overhead Monday resulting in drier weather across the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 950 AM EDT Saturday... Surface front has slipped just east of the region this morning allowing drier air to filter in per drop in PWATS off observed 12Z raobs and latest Blended TPW. However still have a trailing upper system now approaching the Ohio valley to cross the region this evening, with the majority of moisture with this feature progged to stay just north of the CWA. This still supported by most short term solutions espcly given degree of dry air seen aloft so will keep things dry through the afternoon. Otherwise expect some added clouds espcly mountains with heating although appears dry entrainment may limit coverage to mainly the northwest third for now. Given lingering warm air aloft combined with heating of somewhat drier air under weak eastern downslope, expect highs to again be around 90 east and into the 80s west. Thus bumped up highs a degree or two across the region for the afternoon. Previous discussion as of 308 AM EDT Saturday... Sfc front across the piedmont this morning with high pressure over eastern TN. Deeper moisture is east of the CWA with axis of upper trough progged to move across this evening. Moisture profile showing drier air per model soundings and WV trends. Shower threat today will be limited to WV at best closer to the better lift, with scant cu across the rest of the area. Since not much change in airmass temps should close to or maybe a couple degrees cooler than the past day, and dewpoints given some westerly flow should drop to the upper 50s to mid 60s. Tonight, clear skies as surface high shifts overhead. Lows will be closer to normal with upper 50s to lower 60s west, to mid to upper 60s east. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Saturday... An upper level trough will rotate east into the Atlantic ocean Sunday, followed by a weak zonal flow which continues into Monday night. High pressure will build across our region Sunday into Sunday night. High temperatures Sunday will be above normal with readings from the upper 70s in the mountains to the lower 90s in the piedmont. Drier air with dewpoints generally in the 60s will be a welcome change. Look for a pleasant Sunday night with low temperatures from around 60 degrees in the west to around 70 degrees in the east. High pressure with increasing heights aloft will continue Monday through Monday night. The combination of solar heating, low level moisture and upslope flow may generate a few showers or thunderstorms across the mountain. The North Carolina High Country will have the best chances late in the afternoon. Any convection will fade in the evening with the loss of solar heating. Under plenty of sunshine, high temperatures Monday will vary from the lower 80s in the west to the lower 90s in the east. Low temperatures Monday night will generally be from the lower 60s in the mountains to the lower 70s in the east. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Saturday... A western Atlantic upper level ridge will track westward over the Gulf states through early next week. This ridge will push temperatures 5F to 10F warmer than normal. With an increase in heat and humidity, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon across the mountains and then moving and fading across the foothills in the evening. On Wednesday, models are wanting to bring a cold front south into the Gulf states, pushing the upper level ridge into the Gulf. Considering climatology for the time of year, models look to be over zealous with moving this front into a hot and humid air mass. I would not be surprised to see a slowing trend with the frontal passage being more towards Thursday. For now, kept timing close to guidance while keeping PoPs low. Until the front clears the area, temperatures will stay 5F to 10F warmer normal. Following the front, temperatures will be 5F or cooler than normal. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1240 PM EDT Saturday... Expect any lingering MVFR cigs over the mountains to finally lift or scatter out early this afternoon making for overall VFR conditions into this evening. Winds will be mainly from the west/northwest around 10 kts except for a few gusts to near 20 kts along the ridges. Weak disturbance passes this evening with any residual cumulus fading overnight as high pressure builds in from the northwest. This may allow areas of fog and stratus to develop late tonight espcly in the valley locations and possibly across the eastern terminals. Think KLWB/KBCB have the best shot at seeing a period of IFR/LIFR, while some late night IFR/MVFR could occur at KBLF, with MVFR around KLYH/KDAN. Otherwise VFR under light winds. Any fog/stratus should dissipate by mid morning Sunday allowing for a return to overall VFR again under scattered to perhaps broken cumulus over parts of the mountains. An isolated shower could occur mainly along the southern Blue Ridge later Sunday otherwise VFR under light winds. Extended Aviation Discussion... Moisture will gradually start to return early next week as high pressure weakens and moves offshore ahead of another cold front that should arrive from the northwest around midweek. However still appears should remain mainly VFR Monday into Tuesday with localized MVFR under isolated to widely scattered convection. Late night/early morning fog will also be possible each day. Better potential for sub- VFR will come Wednesday when possibly more widespread showers and storms arrive with the next cold front.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... As of 400 AM EDT Friday Aug 18th... KFCX doppler radar expected to be down for the rest of the month due to a failing bull gear. Technicians are working on the radar, through next week and the radar will most likely stay down completely as the repairs are being made. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK/RCS AVIATION...JH EQUIPMENT...RAB/WERT/WP

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