Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 161713

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
113 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

High pressure will shift south into the Carolinas by Monday. This
high stays situated off the Southeast Coast through midweek
bringing much warmer temperatures to the area. Next cold front
arrives Thursday into Friday.


As of 100 PM EDT Sunday...

The biggest adjustment to the forecast for this afternoon is the
introduction of isolated showers across parts of the Northern
Mountains of North Carolina and neighboring sections of the
Grayson Highlands of southwest Virginia. Latest satellite imagery
is starting to show a cluster of cumulus development in this
area, and the latest HRRR offers a small area of showers parallel
to the ridge line starting around 200 PM. Have included a similar
depiction in the latest update for this region.

Have also edged the high temperatures upwards a few degrees in
areas where the current temperature is already within two degrees
of the previously forecast high temperatures. No other notable
changes made at this time.

As of 950 AM EDT Sunday...

Morning valley fog has been slower than usual to burn off this
morning, especially in some locations that typically do not
encounter it as frequently. Have delayed complete erosion by
approximately two hours later as compared to previous forecast.
Otherwise, no notable changes have been made to the ongoing
forecast into the early afternoon.

As of 730 AM EDT Sunday...

A bit of fog had developed in deeper valleys and rural areas. Low
clouds continue to exists over portions of the VA/NC piedmont and
foothills. Still looks like fog will be clearing out by 9-10am.
No other changes to the previous forecast.

Quiet weather today with surface high off the mid-Atlantic coast.
Will see some low clouds this morning across the Blue Ridge and
either side, though even latest satellite showing more breaks. The
flow turns more southerly today so expect some scattered to broken
cumulus across the southern Blue Ridge into WV. Should be dry though
a few models spitting out light qpf in the Southern Appalachians.
Sprinkles could occur in the High Country of NC. Warmer today with
highs from the upper 60s in the NC mountains with lower to mid 70s

Tonight the surface high will be situated across North Carolina,
with light winds. A return flow and some mixing will keep the higher
terrain toward Bluefield, WV milder than deeper valleys. Look for
mainly clear skies with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the
deeper valleys, with mid to upper 60s elsewhere.


As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

The dominant feature through this period will be a broad summer
like 590 dm subtropical ridge that will expand east-northeast
from the central U.S as a broad trough builds into the western
half of the U.S. and teleconnects to the downstream upper ridge.
The surface high currently across the northern Mid-Atlantic coast
will shift south into a Bermuda high position. This will bring
warm west to southwest surface flow into the CWA and allow 850mb
temps to rise into the +15C to +18C level through much of the
period. By Wednesday, the broad western U.S. upper trough will
shift into the central U.S. This will allow the flow across our
region to become more south to southwesterly and result in
increasing moisture levels from the Gulf. However, the associated
frontal system will not reach our region until at least Friday as
it becomes parallel to the upper flow. Thus, have not advertised
mentionable pops during the short term period.

As noted above, temperatures are expected to be well above normal
through the period. Maximum temperatures are expected to be 15 to
20 degrees above normal ranging from the 70s west to the lower and
perhaps even mid 80s Piedmont by Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum
temperatures will also be well above normal, averaging in the 50s,
even close to 60 across the Piedmont. Normal maximum temperatures
for mid-October range from the upper 50s mountains to the upper
60s Piedmont with normal minimum temperatures upper 30s to lower
40s mountains to the mid 40s Piedmont.


As of 415 AM EDT Sunday...

Models beginning to come into better consensus regarding the
evolution and behavior of eastern U.S. troughing during the later
half of the week. GFS has trended toward the earlier runs of the
ECMWF by abandoning the concept of a deep closed low in the Ohio
Valley or Tennessee Valley in favor of a full-latitude trough
sweeping through the eastern U.S. by the weekend. While there
remains some potential for a tropical system to become embedded or
entrained into this trough, model consensus now is for this to
occur southeast and east of the RNK CWA. Advertised rainfall is
considerably less than projected in earlier model runs and also of
far less duration. There is also the potential for deeper
convection to develop across the southeast U.S. or off the
southeast U.S. coast and limit available moisture further
northwest across our region. Indeed, model projected rainfall has
dwindled from several inches a few days ago to far less than an
inch. The most favorable time for precipitation appears to be
Friday. Have retained earlier advertised mostly chance pops
through the Thursday/Friday time frame, with pops decreasing

Temperatures will trend much cooler behind the front/upper trough
late in the week with low temperatures dipping into the 30s and
high temperatures dropping back to the 50s and 60s. Still no
widespread indication of a freeze yet though.


As of 734 AM EDT Sunday...

Looking at LIFR to IFR conditions where the low clouds actually
cleared out allowing fog to form. Anticipate sub-VFR conditions at
most sites to become VFR no later than 15-16z.

Some bkn cumulus this afternoon possible over the mountains but
should be VFR.

High pressure axis will be nearby tonight with mainly clear skies
and light winds. This should promote development of ground fog
once again with best threat in LWB/BCB. So will forecast LWB to
LIFR while BCB goes to IFR after 08z.

Extended aviation discussion...

Looking for mostly VFR conditions through Wednesday aside from
late night/early morning patchy dense fog in the river valleys.

Frontal boundary shifts toward the area Thursday with chance of
showers. May see some MVFR cigs but overall looks like we are in a
warm sector so most stay VFR even with showers.


As of 515 PM EDT Saturday...

Record maximum temperatures through Thursday, Oct 20.

Oct 16

Location      Record Max
Bluefield.....81 in 1989
Danville......89 in 1985
Lynchburg.....89 in 1897
Roanoke.......85 in 1930
Blacksburg....80 in 1992

Oct 17

Location      Record Max
Bluefield.....78 in 2000
Danville......88 in 1989
Lynchburg.....88 in 1908
Roanoke.......86 in 1938
Blacksburg....80 in 1989

Oct 18

Location      Record Max
Bluefield.....79 in 2007
Danville......86 in 2007
Lynchburg.....91 in 1938
Roanoke.......91 in 1938
Blacksburg....80 in 1953

Oct 19

Location      Record Max
Bluefield.....81 in 1984
Danville......85 in 1953
Lynchburg.....88 in 1938
Roanoke.......91 in 1938
Blacksburg....80 in 1991

Oct 20

Location      Record Max
Bluefield.....79 in 1993
Danville......88 in 1984
Lynchburg.....85 in 1993
Roanoke.......84 in 2005
Blacksburg....82 in 1985




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