Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KRNK 311129
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
729 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
The remnants of Bonnie will stay along the Carolina coast through
Thursday morning. A cold front arriving by Thursday should start
to nudge Bonnie out to sea. The front slows down and crosses the
area Friday into early Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...
Foggy across portions of the area, especially where it rained
Monday. Still not seeing enough coverage for a dense fog advisory
but have a special wx statement going, as where there is fog, it
is pretty dense.
No other major changes to the forecast with the 7am update.
Previous discussion from early this morning...
Instability gradient across the foothills this morning per
mesoanalysis allowing for continuation of isolated showers, though
the trend has been for weaker and less coverage. The 00z GFS showed
this fairly well in the SBCAPE forecast.
Fog has begun to form in the west, but still patchy enough in nature
to delay any advisory, but a Special Wx Statement is likely. A dense
fog advisory may be needed if fog becomes more widespread, but given
some lingering mid and high cloud cover this may prevent it.
Today, models are giving almost a repeat of Monday while the
remnants of Bonnie linger along the SC/NC coast. Appears best
instability gradient with low level moisture convergence will be
along the Blue Ridge and either side by midday, though some models
are showing even further west development of convection, with best
lift across portions of Southeast WV and the NC mountains. Still
spotty nature to convection will keep pops no higher than 40. Leaned
toward the GFS solution as mentioned which actually keeps lower pops
across far SW VA into SE WV.
Highs today will be dependent on amount of sunshine, thinking more
sun across the Mountain Empire of Southwest Virginia, north across
SE WV. Temps will climb into the lower to mid 80s for most similar
Tonight, still looks any showers or storms in the west are going to
weaken and end but along and east of the Blue Ridge, isolated
convection may linger through late night. Fog again should form
after midnight, especially in the mountain valleys. The remnants of
Bonnie by late tonight will still be along the southeast coast of
NC, near ILM.
Lows similar to this morning with upper 50s to mid 60s.
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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 am Tuesday...
Remnants of Bonnie will continue to hug the North Carolina coast
into Thursday night, then a front pushes her out to sea on Friday.
Even though Bonnie remains along the Carolina coast, she continues
to have some influence on our weather. Her influence has not been
much in the way of rain, but providing an area of subsidence keeping
convection limited. As in the past couple of days, Wednesday will
see another round of isolated to scattered convection across central
and northern Virginia. These storms will track southwest across the
foothills and piedmont counties during the afternoon and evening.
Across the mountains, orographic lift and differential heating will
help generate slow moving afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. These mountain showers will fade with loss of
heating in the evening.
On Thursday, a combination of tropical moisture and prefrontal
dynamics will bring a better chance for showers and thunderstorms to
the mountains, while remnants of Bonnie places subsidence over the
piedmont. Therefore, we will carry high PoPs west and chance in the
east. This cold front will likely stall over the Ohio Valley
Thursday night, then push across the region through the day Friday.
Even though PWATS will remain high, bulk of the heavier rain will
stay north of the area, toward DC into New England.
Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will warm into the lower to mid
80s. Friday`s temperatures will be somewhat cooler with rain for
much of the day follow by the frontal passage.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Monday...
Gradual lowering of heights will continue into next weekend as
the upper zonal flow starts to break down and eventually gives way
to a more pronounced trough across the region into early next
week. Initial boundary should be to the south Saturday with a
brief lull in showers possible before the true secondary front
arrives Sunday. This boundary ahead of a rather potent chilly
upper cold pool for early June that will pivot east across the
region by Day7 and likely knock temps back to below normal levels
for early next week. Ahead of the front looks like added bands of
shra/tsra Sunday followed by more post frontal upslope nature
western showers Monday. Otherwise warm and humid temps with highs
at or above normal to prevail into Saturday despite some drying
early in the weekend. This before seeing somewhat cooler and even
drier air especially mountains by Monday as deeper cool advection
arrives with highs mostly in the 70s west to around 80 east.
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 720 AM EDT Tuesday...
Fog will hamper LWB/BCB and perhaps LYH/DAN for another hour or
two then should see VFR through the rest of the day. Issue this
afternoon is where convection fires. Looks similar to yesterday so
will go ahead and put VCTS in at ROA/LYH and BCB for a few hours
this afternoon. Tafs can be amended as needed if storms threaten
Few showers this evening should dissipate overnight with fog once
again forming and becoming locally dense at LWB/BCB.
Wednesday continues the same cycle of isolated to scattered
afternoon shra/tsra. Outside of early morning fog/low clouds and
convection should be VFR through the end of the week.
Finally an stronger upper trough will kick what is left of Bonnie
out to sea Thursday-Friday. Expect more widespread showers Thursday
afternoon into Friday ahead of a cold front, making for periods
of sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities. Saturday may be VFR behind
this front and before moisture and lowering conditions return by
-- End Changed Discussion --