


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --899 FXUS66 KSEW 122207 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 307 PM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Warm and dry conditions will continue through the weekend with upper level ridging over the region. A brief reprieve in temperatures is likely on Monday as a system slides southward from British Columbia and skirts the area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected again around midweek, with highs potentially reaching the 90s for some lowland locations.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Upper level ridging over the region will continue promote warm and dry conditions across western Washington today and Sunday. Modest onshore flow will continue into Sunday for some morning stratus, but do not expect as much cloud cover across the area as this morning. Afternoon high temperatures today will climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the interior and into the upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. Highs look to climb a few degrees on Sunday as ridging starts to amplify offshore, with temperatures looking to top out in the 80s to low 90s across the interior and in the 70s along the coast. Morning lows on Sunday will generally be in the 50s for most spots, but may not dip down past the low 60s for the urban corridors east of the Sound (generally from Tacoma to Everett). As a result, Moderate HeatRisk will be present across the majority of the interior lowlands. A brief reprieve in temperatures is likely on Monday as a positively tilted trough slides down across British Columbia and skirts western Washington. Outside of a slight chance of showers across the far Northern Cascades, this system will not bring much in the way of precipitation, but will mostly bring additional cloud cover and an increase in onshore flow in the low levels. High temperatures are expected to be roughly 5 to 10 degrees cooler areawide- with afternoon highs expected to be in the mid 70s to low 80s across the interior and in the 60s along the coast. The next warm up commences on Tuesday as high pressure offshore starts to build back into the area. Afternoon highs will rebound into the 80s for the majority of the interior lowlands, with temperatures along the coast expected to climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s. This will again bring another round of Moderate HeatRisk to portions of the interior lowlands. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Wednesday currently looks to remain the warmest day of the week, with the most widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the area. Under the influence of high pressure and a thermal trough at the surface, expect temperatures to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior lowlands. Areas along the coast will warm as well, but will mainly be in the 70s. This warm and dry trend could bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions during this time frame- see the fire weather section below for more details. Ensembles continue to have a tough time converging on solutions after Wednesday, though the ensemble mean has started to indicate some weak troughing over the area by Thursday and Friday. The overall trend leans towards temperatures cooling a few degrees both Thursday and Friday. However, with highs still expected to be in the 80s across the interior lowlands into the weekend, temperatures look to continue to trend above normal through the long term at this time. 14-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --Northwest flow aloft through the period as upper-ridging holds stubbornly offshore. VFR all areas this afternoon with clear skies. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight into Sunday also but can`t rule out patchy fog along with stratus along the immediate coast. Northerly winds for interior terminals around 8 to 12 kt. KCLM and KHQM looks to remain westerly with similar magnitudes. Winds become lighter overnight. KSEA...VFR conditions today and throughout the TAF period. North- northwest winds this afternoon between 8 to 12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Winds trend lighter after 00-02z but remain northerly before increasing again Sunday afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt. McMillian-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Surface high pressure continues offshore with low level onshore flow through area waters. A westerly push this evening will be weaker than the previous day`s, but can`t rule out isolated gusts near SCA tonight for the central/eastern strait. Diurnally driven pushes will continue through the strait into early next week. The next best chance for SCA level (possibly near gales) winds through the strait and Admiralty Inlet appears to be Sunday evening. Northerly winds will increase over the outer coastal waters Sunday night with the potential to reach small craft advisory strength as well along with steep seas. Weak offshore is showing signals towards midweek as a thermal trough builds along the coast. Combined seas 4 to 6 feet will gradually increase to around 6 to 8 feet late Sunday into Monday. Seas look to remain elevated for the first half of next week. McMillian-- End Changed Discussion --&& .FIRE WEATHER...-- Changed Discussion --High pressure over the region will maintain warm and dry conditions across Western Washington this weekend. Modest onshore flow will provide for excellent overnight recoveries for most of the lowlands. However, Sunday afternoon will see RH values dip down into the 25-30% range for areas in the interior. A weak trough slides through the region on Monday, boosting cloud cover and humidities, as well as bringing cooler temperatures into the region. This is a short break as elevated fire weather concerns return by the middle of next week, with minimum RH values approaching critical thresholds. While flow remains mostly northerly or northeasterly, the combination of daytime breezes overlaying the lowest RHs may elevate concerns around Wednesday and Thursday for much of Western Washington as a thermal trough may build over the region. This could further enhance instability as well. That said, ensemble guidance continues to exhibit a wide range of potential outcomes for this time period and confidence remains a bit lower in the details of potential elevated or critical conditions during the middle to late portion of next week. Cullen-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM PDT Monday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Admiralty Inlet.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$