Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA

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FXUS66 KSEW 011626
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
926 AM PDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Weak fronts will bring a slight chance of rain at
times. Otherwise, onshore flow will bring a mix of clouds and
sunshine and near normal temperatures for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A weak front is bringing a little rain to the north
coast this morning. The front will disintegrate as it moves
inland today. Spotty rain might reach the north interior but the
rest of the area should be dry. Sunshine will be rather limited
today as the front brings clouds. Highs will be near normal.

A weak upper trough will be over the area Saturday with low level
onshore flow. There are no obvious weather systems moving through.
There might be some morning drizzle or a few sprinkles but it
should basically be a dry day. Morning clouds should burn off for
a least partly sunny weather for the interior in the afternoon.

Another weak front will reach the area Sunday. This front should
be similar to the front today with a good chance of rain for the
coast and lesser chances inland. It should be noted that the ECMWF
is a bit wetter and at least slight chance PoPs are probably
warranted for all areas. Schneider

.LONG TERM...Previous discussion...The Pacific Northwest will
remain under the influence of an upper level trof through at least
Wednesday. However, the medium range solutions varied quite a bit
in the details. For example, the GFS solution developed a closed
Low over the area on Tuesday while the other models didn`t. In
other words, expect generally more of the same type of weather we
have been having recently.

On Thursday, there may or may not be a weak ridge over the area.
The ECMWF says, "No," while the Canadian and GFS say, "Yes." The
inherited forecast reflected the ridge solution.

&&

.AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft through tonight with a weak front
dissipating over the interior today. Low level flow remaining
onshore.

Stratus deck along the coast and from about KPAE southward over
the interior this morning. Ceilings with the stratus in the
1500-2500 foot range. Outside of the stratus, just mid and high
level clouds. Stratus deck scattering out by mid afternoon.
Dissipating front moving into the area will keep some mid level
clouds over the area. With the low level onshore flow continuing
expect stratus deck to reform overnight into Saturday morning with
ceilings near 1500 feet.

KSEA...Hole in the stratus deck over the airport filling in by
18z with ceilings near 2000 feet. 2000 foot deck scattering back
out again 20-22z with just a mid level deck this evening. Stratus
returning to the terminal after 09z Saturday morning with ceilings
near 2000 feet. Light southwest wind this morning will become
northwest 6-10 kt in the afternoon. Felton

&&

.MARINE...Higher pressure offshore with low pressure inland will
maintain moderate to strong onshore flow through Tuesday. Small
craft advisory strength winds are likely in the strait each
evening. A system Saturday night and Sunday could enhance the
onshore flow enough for possible gales in the central and eastern
Strait. Felton

&&

.SEW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Saturday
     for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/seattle

You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html



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