505
FXUS63 KSGF 171718
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1218 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances (30-50%) for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
  this afternoon into the early evening. No severe weather or
  flooding expected.

- Above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week
  with near record temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

- Return of active weather early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

This Morning: A system is sliding south of the region this
morning, with portions of south central Missouri on the northern
edge of the rain shield. Periods of scattered showers will
continue through the early morning before dissipating to the
south and east. Meanwhile, presence of low-level moisture in the
vicinity of light and variable winds support some light mist
and fog. The extent of reduced visibilities has remained limited
to areas west of Highway 65. Expect any areas of patchy fog to
dissipate through mid-morning.

This Afternoon-Evening: Hi-res guidance has continued to trend
lower with coverage of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
(30-50%) this afternoon into the early evening. The latest runs
would suggest activity to remain across portions of southern
Missouri, or along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor.
There could be a few thunderstorms featuring some lightning and
brief heavy downpours, though no severe or flooding is expected.
Some locations may remain completely dry through this evening
before the the mid- level shortwave slides east of the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Rainfall amounts will be limited to a tenth
to quarter of an inch. Highs this afternoon reach into the
middle to upper 70s.

Tonight: Rain chances dissipate through the evening, with clouds
slowly dissipating tonight. Lows drop into the upper 50s to
lower 60s, with a low potential for some areas of fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Saturday-Sunday: By Saturday, expect mid-level height rises as a
ridge builds over the central CONUS. This will keep the area
drier through Saturday and Sunday, and supports a substantial
warming trend. As 850mb temperatures reach to 16 to 18C+,
surface temperatures will reach into the lower to middle 80s on
Saturday afternoon. Even warmer on Sunday with highs pushing
into the middle to upper 80s. Precipitation chances should
remain suppressed to the north of the area.

Next Week: Above normal temperatures continue into early next
week, though the ridge begins to shift a bit east. This sets
the stage for the return of showers and thunderstorm chances.
Highs are forecast to reach into the upper 80s Monday and
Tuesday, before a subtle cooldown (upper 70s/lower 80s) by mid-
week with a frontal passage. A few records may be in jeopardy
on Monday and Tuesday (see Climate section below).

Ensemble guidance is depicting the return of shower and
thunderstorm chances as early as Monday. As of now, chances
remain highest across portions west central into central
Missouri. Additional chances persist through Tuesday and
Wednesday, with an environment that may be conducive for severe
weather. This is characterized by an unstable atmosphere in the
vicinity of strong shear and moisture availability. CIPS analogs
and CSU Machine Learning both highlight potential for severe
weather, though the finer details will be better resolved over
the coming days. Continue to stay updated on the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Scattered cumulus clouds will continue to develop through the
beginning of the TAF period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are likely across the region, though confidence in any one storm
impacting a terminal site at a specific time is limited, so any
mention of lightning was relegated to a TEMPO group. Chances for
convection wind down after 00Z.

Fog development is possible late tonight into early Saturday
morning across the region, with the best signal across far
southern Missouri near the BBG site.

Winds will remain light and generally southerly through much of
the TAF period outside of any thunderstorms this afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Record High Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 90/1964
KJLN: 92/1956
KUNO: 89/1964

May 21:
KSGF: 91/1987
KJLN: 91/1987


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 71/1902

May 21:
KSGF: 70/1902

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Didio
CLIMATE...Burchfield