Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 291129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
629 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

A pretty active period of weather is in store for the Ozarks over
the next 24 to 36 hours. A very dynamic system is moving across
the plains and will bring the potential for severe weather to the

A strong closed low will move across the Red River Valley and
slowly lift northeast into southwestern Missouri and Southeastern
Kansas through today and into tonight. As the low makes its way
across Oklahoma a warm front will lift north across the region
placing the Ozarks in the warm sector by late this afternoon into
tonight. A rather strong low level jet on the order of 50kt will
be in place. This will enhance the shear profile over the Ozarks
region on the order of 60-75kts of shear. Cape values this
evening will be on the order of 1500 to 1800 J/kg with low level
Cape values in the lowest 1 to 3 Km from 90 to 120 J/kg.

This combination, along with the proximity of the warm front, the
surface low moving over the region and the approaching cold front
will bring the potential for all modes of severe weather late
this afternoon through tonight across all of the Ozarks and
southeastern Kansas. Expectations are for large hail in excess of
half dollars at times, wind gusts up to 70 mph and a couple
tornadoes possible as some of the short range models indicated
storm mode may initially be supercellular.

As we head into tonight and the overnight hours, areas of heavy
rain due to training of storms may lead to localized flash
flooding. With the rain over the past week, soil moisture is good,
though not saturated. Severe storms are expected to continue into
the overnight hours as the storm system traverses the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

The surface low will shift into eastern Missouri with lingering
severe weather chances expected across the eastern Ozarks, or
east of Highway 65, Thursday morning into the early afternoon as
the surface low loiters over Missouri. The severe dynamic will
shift east before the low lifts out of the area, which will allow
for some lingering showers and isolated storms into the afternoon

Upper level ridging will eventually nudge the storm system east of
the Ozarks with a period of quiet weather expected for Thursday
night and through Saturday evening.

The next weather maker will begin to move into the plains late
Saturday night and track from northern Texas across Arkansas and
into over the Bootheel of Missouri through Sunday and into
Monday. Additionally the track of this system places the Ozarks
on the northern periphery of the system. As a result showers and
scattered storms will be the most likely occurrence.

Very brief ridging occurs Tuesday before the next system dives
out of the northern plains for the Middle of next week. This will
bring more showers to the area as the upper level pattern shifts
to northerly to northwesterly flow for the end of the week as an
amplified ridge builds across the plains staying just west of the
Ozarks into the end on next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

The main concern for pilots flying in and out of the Missouri
Ozarks region today will be the potential for severe convection
developing late this afternoon and evening across the area and
impacted airports. MVFR ceilings will be around this morning with
some breaks or improvements possible this afternoon before the
storms develop. Storms will be moving east of the TAF sites late
this evening. Winds will be southeasterly and gusty today up to 30
knots possible. There is a potential for IFR ceilings late
tonight but confidence is not high enough to mention it and will
go with low end MVFR ceilings at this time.




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