Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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355
FXUS63 KSGF 301101
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
601 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

It has been a rather tranquil night over southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks, with just some high clouds and light winds.
Watching convection over Oklahoma for possible upscale growth into
southwest Missouri early this morning, which is quite plausible
given a weak moisture transport signal into northeast Oklahoma and
southwest Missouri. Latest radar is showing some cells popping up
in northeast Oklahoma. Several of the Hi- Res models also
indicating this as well.

Later today, a shortwave trough will track across the region and
this will trigger either upscale growth of morning convection, or
development as instabilities increase later this morning and
afternoon. Although shear is rather weak, there is some increase
this afternoon so cannot rule out an isolated stronger thunderstorm.

Wave tracks east of the area tonight and expect convection to wane
with loss of instability.

Another warm day is expected for the region with highs in the lower
to middle 80s once again.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Tuesday and Wednesday continues to look pretty wet across the
region. A rather vigorous shortwave trough tracks across the
northern Plains during this time pushing a cold front southward.
Forecast area remains in the warm sector both days, with a series of
upper level impulses poised to track through the flow. Thus expecting
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather threat does not
look overly impressive as forecast area will be on the east edge of
the better lapse rates and instability on Tuesday, then question to
how unstable we can get on Wednesday right ahead of the front.
Current SPC day 3 has portions of the eastern Ozarks in a
marginal risk. Precipitable water values through the period remain
around 1.5 inches, so locally heavy rainfall will also be a
concern.

Models pretty consistent in pushing the front through the area
Wednesday night, with cooler and drier air working in from the
north. Will likely see convection ending from north to south.

There is some uncertainty on how far south the front makes it on
Thursday. With that in mind, model consensus is to hang on to some
lower probabilities across far southern Missouri. At this point,
Friday through Sunday look mainly dry. However, there are some
disagreements within the model solutions with the GFS wanting to
drop a secondary front through the region on Saturday, generating
some precipitation, while ECMWF is mostly dry, with only extreme
southern Missouri seeing any chance for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Shortwave energy currently over Oklahoma will move towards the
area this morning and should see scattered convection develop by
the afternoon across the area. The best chance at convection will
be between 18z and 23z at the terminal sites. Will go with VFR
conditions outside of any convection and MVFR within any
convection.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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