Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 300425
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in a relatively
narrow corridor in the right entrance region of jet streak over
eastern KS/western MO. Haven`t seen anything severe, but some
gusty winds may occur with stronger storms during the high point
of diurnal heating through early evening.

It may be a relatively quiet evening, however, some
shower/thunderstorm redevelopment is expected late tonight as a
weak sfc trough moves into the nw cwfa by 12z Saturday. This
boundary is expected to lose it`s identity/wash out with time
Sat/Sat night but still may help serve as a focus for scattered
convection Saturday afternoon and evening with the axis of a weak
upper level trough passing overhead. Went close to a mos blended
guidance for temperatures, but cloud cover will make high
temperatures a somewhat tough forecast for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

No big changes to the forecast. The upper level subtropical ridge
will be suppressed to the south early next week as the belt of
mid level westerlies takes a dip to the south. Sunday should be
relatively quiet with modest shortwave ridge moving through the
area. Some brief diurnally driven convection may occur over the
far southern and eastern cwfa, but most areas are expected to
remain dry.

Better chances for rain will occur Monday into Tuesday with a
more sharply defined front that is expected to move south into
the area. It looks like better vertical shear will be in place for
storm organization during this time, particularly late Monday into
Tuesday, but forecasting overall MCS potential timing/placement is
difficult at best this far out.

Medium range guidance is a bit of a mixed bag. The ECMWF
reestablished the subtropical ridge into Mid MS Vly region/Ozarks
by early Thursday. The GFS lags that timing just a bit, but has
the same basic idea. Some lingering of precip may occur Wednesday
along the old frontal boundary, but precip chances should then
begin to wane by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

We have a shortwave pushing from west to east across the area
tonight with any remaining convection to the east of the forecast
terminals. Frontal boundary is still to the west but not seeing
much in the way of development along the front at this point.
Wouldn`t be surprised to see some scattered convection redevelop,
however confidence on convection hitting any of the terminal
locations is fairly low so will hold off on putting in TAFS for
the 06z issuance at this time. Expecting VFR conditions through
the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg





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