Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 250442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1142 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A couple of subtle upper level disturbances continue to
move through the weak westerly flow aloft. The most "prominent" is
over eastern KS and this could set off some showers/isolated
thunder where pockets of instability can develop over the western
cwfa through early this evening. Cloud cover has kept
temperatures/instability down over some, but not all of the area
so will continue to monitor trends.

Building mid level heights should limit convection on Saturday.
High res model output does develop some isolated afternoon
convection over the far eastern cwfa as the weak upper level wave
moves into eastern MO. The weather will be hot and muggy once
again but some mixing down of dry air is indicated during the
afternoon so it doesn`t look like heat index values will get too
out of hand.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A remnant cold frontal boundary will try to move southeast into
the area on Sunday. Guidance really varies on how much and how far
south convection will get. The GFS and GEM break out more
convection versus the ECMWF, but it does look like there may be
some dew point and/or convective feedback issues with the GFS.
Will continue to carry some modest pops for Sunday with at least
the chance that the front or remnant outflow boundary will have a
chance to focus some chances for storms.

Forecast trends for next week look consistent with previous
guidance as an upper level ridge amplifies to our west and we get
into a cooler northwest (nw) flow regime. Shortwaves in the nw
flow will bring chances for storms at times, but as you might
guess, guidance varies widely on those mesoscale type features
that far out in time. The best chances for dry weather may be
Tue/Wed (daytime) with the relative close proximity to the drier
air/sfc high pressure over the Midwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A few showers remain over extreme southwest MO as of 0430z, but
have been rapidly diminishing over the past half hour. Will keep
VFR conditions going through the period. Shortwave should pass to
the east of the terminal locations tonight with main redevelopment
expected over the eastern CWA or east of here on Saturday.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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