Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

000
FXUS66 KSGX 221131
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL BRING STRONGER SANTA ANA WINDS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY WITH THE SANTA ANA WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BRING WARMING
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING COOLING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS HAVE SHOWN PATCHY STRATUS THE PAST FEW
HOURS OVER FAR NORTHWEST ORANGE COUNTY AND FAR SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES
COUNTY. PATCHY STRATUS IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT WEAK OFFSHORE DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY
LIMITED. A GREATER RETURN OF STRATUS AND DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED.
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH MODERATE STRENGTH
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING ADVISORY
STRENGTH OFFSHORE WINDS FOR THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILL AREAS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THEY COOL IN
THE DESERTS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PEAK
TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA
WITH CONTINUING MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY COOL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
221050Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES
1500 TO 1800 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 2500 FT MSL FORMING WEST OF THE MTNS
AFTER 23/03Z...CLEARING EARLY SUN MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

AREAS OF NE SFC WINDS GUSTING 35-50 KT DEVELOPING BELOW THE CAJON
PASS AND SANTA ANA MTNS AFTER 23/12Z WITH ASSOCIATED LLWS VCNTY KONT
AND KSNA.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...WEST WINDS WITH SFC GUSTS 30-40 KT AFTER 21Z IN
THE HIGH DESERT...AND OVER/E OF THE MTN RIDGES AND ADJACENT DESERT
SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS. LLWS AND STG UDDFS POSSIBLE ALONG AND E OF THE
MTNS. W WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 23/06Z. LOCAL GUSTY N-NE WINDS AND
LLWS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY SUN
MORNING...INCLUDING VCNTY KPSP. BLOWING DUST MAY REDUCE VIS AT TIMES
IN THE DESERTS THROUGH SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
310 AM...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
SURFACING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL INITIALLY SURFACE FROM
CAJON SUMMIT THROUGH THE CAJON PASS AND INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
ORANGE COUNTY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WINDS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD INTO RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. MODERATE STRENGTH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOWEST INLAND HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOWEST DAYTIME INLAND
HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. RECENT
RAINFALL HAS BRIEFLY INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL REDUCE THE
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE
     COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.