Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 152056
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
155 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD AND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND WITH
INCREASING NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WARMER INLAND
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MARINE INVERSION WITH THE
MARINE LAYER ABOUT 1200 FEET DEEP. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS STILL LINGERING NEAR THE COAST BUT BEGINNING TO CLEAR.
CURRENT SOUNDINGS AND THE LOCAL WRF SHOW A MARINE LAYER FOR TONIGHT
OF ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY GREATER DEPTH. THIS WOULD PUT THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR DENSE FOG FROM THE MESAS INTO THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...SLIGHTLY FARTHER INLAND THAN AREAS INITIALLY EXPERIENCING
DENSE FOG LAST NIGHT. A COASTAL EDDY SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL
DEEPENING THE FOLLOWING TWO NIGHTS WITH STRATUS PUSHING FARTHER INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
ONTO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND THAT WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHERN BAJA FRIDAY MOVES INLAND AS A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
BULK OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SPREAD INLAND ACROSS BAJA INTO ARIZONA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...NCEP WPC FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING OF THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST VERSUS THE FASTER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED GFS. WARMER INLAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW FOR SLOW COOLING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
152030Z...COAST/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS BASED 800-1200 FT MSL...TOPS
1600 FEET MSL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCALLY INLAND. FROM
03Z-06Z THIS EVENING THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND...
REACHING KRNM AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF KONT.

THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BACK TO THE BEACHES BY 18Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 14Z WEDNESDAY MORNING IS
MODERATE...MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD BASE HEIGHT FORECASTS...THEN
LOW-MODERATE 16Z-19Z WEDNESDAY DUE TO VARIATIONS IN CLEARING TIMES.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS.....GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL









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