Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000 FXUS66 KSGX 300416 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service San Diego CA 916 PM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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For Monday through Thursday, expect an inland warming trend and a gradually shallower marine layer with areas of night and morning coastal low clouds and patchy fog not extending as far inland. There is a slight chance of light rain again overnight through Monday morning. For next weekend, another weak low pressure system will move inland bringing cooling and a deeper marine layer.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Isolated showers and thunderstorms have dissipated over the mountains this evening. The marine stratus that was extremely slow to clear west of the mountains today is already beginning to fill back in, and will blanket the coastal and valley areas overnight. The base of the marine inversion has dropped from around 3700 ft this morning to 3100 ft this afternoon, so expect inland extent to be slightly less. However, the marine layer remains sufficiently deep to produce some drizzle or light showers tonight, though any accumulation will be around a couple hundredths inch at best. Further inland, breezy conditions will prevail in the mountains and deserts through the late evening. The upper level low that was over Southern California today will slowly drift southeast over the next few days, allowing an upper level ridge to build over the Western U.S. This will bring gradual warming, especially inland, through Thursday. The marine layer will become more shallow each day, though with the building ridge the inversion will remain quite strong. Low clouds and patchy fog will not spread as far inland each night, but the beaches may remain cloudy for much of the week. June Gloom will certainly live up to its name close to the coast. Elsewhere benign weather will reign. A closed low very slowly drifts towards Southern California Friday through the weekend for cooler weather, a deeper marine layer, and gusty onshore winds in the mountains a deserts. The GFS tries to pull up some subtropical moisture with the low on Saturday, though it`s mostly above 500 mb. The ECMWF is slightly drier and keeps the moisture above about 400 mb. The sub- cloud layer is quite dry, so it would be hard for any possible precip to reach the ground, except for maybe the highest peaks of the San Bernardino and San Jacinto mountains. Will continue to monitor, but for now have left the forecast dry.
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&& AVIATION... 300415Z...Coast/Valleys...Areas of BKN-OVC stratus will occur with greatest coverage within 25 mi of the coast overnight. Ceiling heights will be variable, generally 1800-3300 ft MSL with tops to 3500 ft MSL. Higher terrain will be obscured at times, but vis below the cloud bases will mostly remain 6+ miles. Valleys will clear 16Z- 18Z Monday with most coastal areas clearing 18Z-20Z Monday. Stratus have less coverage and be closer to the coast Monday night. Overall confidence is moderate. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear skies with unrestricted vis will prevail through Monday night. && .MARINE...
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915 pm...No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.
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&& SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested at this time. However, weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...SS AVIATION/MARINE...Maxwell

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