Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000 FXUS66 KSGX 250426 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 930 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH COOLER CONDITIONS...GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND THE MARINE LAYER RETURNING. THE MARINE LAYER MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE WEST WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS WEST OF SAN CLEMENTE AND CATALINA ISLANDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT. RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM COASTAL AIRPORTS INDICATE A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...AROUND 300 FT OR SO. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY BY MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG SPREADING INTO THE HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN AND COASTAL MESAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE. THIS WILL JUST BRING A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME CU DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO DEEPEN QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...PUSHING WELL INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING GRADUAL WARMING AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. UNCERTAINTY STILL LINGERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO BRING IN A TROUGH FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE EC IS SLOWER AND KEEPS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND MAINTAINS OFFSHORE FLOW INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HALLOWEEN BEFORE MODERATING OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION...
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250400Z...COAST...LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES AROUND 400 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR 800 FT MSL...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND A FEW MILES INLAND TONIGHT. VIS AT OR BELOW 1SM DUE TO BR/FG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW CLOUDS NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE MAY HELP RAISE CEILINGS A FEW HUNDRED FEET BY MID-SATURDAY MORNING. STRATUS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE SATURDAY EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOPS AND BASES. VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW/SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT MSL...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT EVENING.
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&& .MARINE...
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900 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG...WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES TONIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .BEACHES...
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900 PM...AN ELEVATED NW...MID-PERIOD SWELL WILL CREATE ABOVE NORMAL SURF OF 3-5 FEET...WITH SETS TO 7 FEET...ALONG WESTERLY FACING BEACHES SUNDAY. HIGHEST SETS WILL BE ON BEACHES IN NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.
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&& .SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...SS AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT

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