Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000 FXUS66 KSGX 230958 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 300 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER TODAY AND FRIDAY. ANY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND LIMITED TO THE COAST...BUT POSSIBLY DENSE. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARMER WEATHER AND LESS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WERE OBSERVED ON MESAS OF NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT SOME DRAINAGE WIND HAS PUSHED THE FOG OUT TO SEA FOR THE TIME BEING. A PATCH OR TWO OF DENSE FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST. AND THAT WILL BE TRUE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM WEATHER WILL RULE THE DAYS THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT GETS ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF THE TROUGH WHICH DRAWS UP A PATCH OF MOISTURE THAT A FEW MODELS CONSIDER ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY. NOT READY TO BUY OFF ON THAT SOLUTION AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS RATHER STABLE AT THAT TIME...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY APPEAR OVER THE INTERIOR. AND SOME WILL BE MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS IN THE LEE OF THE RIDGES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG OVER RIDGES AS WELL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE ENTIRE COASTAL BASIN WILL BE FILLED WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY TEMPS WILL FEEL LIKE FALL. THE TROUGH MOVES OUT EARLY MONDAY AND HIGHER PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NO BIG RIDGE AMPLIFICATION...BUT A MODEST WARMUP IS LIKELY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE LESS DEEP FOR LESS LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IN TIME AND SPACE. AFTER TUESDAY THE GFS AND EURO MODELS DIVERGE INTO POLAR OPPOSITE SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z GFS PRODUCES A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE THE EURO SLOWLY DROPS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DOWN THE WEST COAST. SINCE THE 00Z GFS RUN IS AN OUTLIER...EVEN DIFFERING FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...MORE CREDENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO THE EURO SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN AND ENSEMBLES AGREE. IF THIS SYSTEM ALL COMES TOGETHER AS IT LOOKS NOW...SOME RAIN COULD ARRIVE BY TRICK OR TREATING TIME. BUT THAT IS A LONG SHOT AT THE MOMENT.
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&& .AVIATION...
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230900Z...PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR THROUGH 14Z ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AT ALL COASTAL AIRPORTS IS LOW...BUT BKN CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...INCLUDING AT KSAN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 15Z TODAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING. VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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200 AM...THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF ONE MILE OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .SKYWARN...
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SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
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&& .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MM AVIATION/MARINE...BROTHERTON

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