Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000 FXUS66 KSGX 081101 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 301 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS INTO TUESDAY...STRONGEST THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAKER WINDS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENTS FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PEAK THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS WILL PEAK THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES...15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WELL INLAND. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALMOST TO THE COAST FOR TODAY WITH WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SOME INLAND COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS NEAR 90. SLIGHT COOLING WILL RETURN NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY AND SPREAD SLIGHTLY FARTHER INLAND ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST STILL IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM IN SOME AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MIXING FROM THE OFFSHORE WINDS OCCURS AND COOLER IN THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS. WHERE MIXING HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE HISTORICALLY BEEN SOME VERY WARM DRY OFFSHORE EVENTS THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO THE RECORDS ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS SUCH THAT ANY RECORDS SET SHOULD BE HIT AND MISS.
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&& .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
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HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST LEAVING A WEAK CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A SLOW COOLING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COULD BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFERING IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF JUST WHEN AND HOW THAT MIGHT OCCUR. THE 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF IN DRAWING THAT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION...
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081000...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF FOOTHILLS WILL CREATE POCKETS OF STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND LLWS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED ROTORS. LLWS MORE LIKELY AROUND KSNA AND KONT DURING TIMES WHEN WINDS DO NOT SURFACE.
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&& .MARINE...
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200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WILL LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES FOR VALLEY AND INLAND COASTAL AREAS TODAY AROUND 10 PERCENT WITH A VERY SLIGHT RECOVERY FOR TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW HUMIDITIES WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND BELOW BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS WITH STRONGER GUSTS WILL CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH...SO NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT OR ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .SKYWARN...
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SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
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&& .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE- SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. PZ...NONE.
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&& $$ PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17 AVIATION/MARINE...MM

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