Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000 FXUS66 KSGX 232043 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 143 PM PDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cool today with conditions drying out. Warmer and dry Friday, then precipitation chances return Saturday as a weak system moves across the area. Another system could create showers Monday or Tuesday, then dry weather and above normal highs develop for the middle of next week. Gusty westerly winds will develop over the mountains and deserts as each system moves across the region. && .DISCUSSION...
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FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... At 1 PM PDT, water vapor satellite imagery displayed an upper- level trough over central AZ, and a weak upper-level ridge over northern CA. Visible satellite showed mostly clear to partly cloudy skies across the region. Westerly wind gusts of 40-50 mph will continue over the mountains and desert mountain slopes today. A storm total precipitation summary is headlined on our webpage. The aforementioned ridge will build over the area Friday and help rebound high temperatures to near normal. The ridge quickly gets squashed by an upper-level trough Saturday, lowering highs back to 5-10 deg F below normal, and increasing chances of showers. Coverage and strength of showers looks minimal for now as most of the instability and moisture remain to our north. Showers will begin over northern areas Friday night, and spread SE Saturday morning and afternoon. Accumulations are expected to be very light, with highest amounts near one-tenth of an inch expected near the mountains. Snow levels will dip down to 6500 ft Saturday morning, then rise through the day Saturday with only a dusting expected for higher elevations. Westerly winds will gust around 35-45 mph over the mountains and deserts late Saturday. Dry weather will develop Sunday under zonal to NW flow flow aloft. Another system will move across the region sometime Monday- Tuesday, however models disagree with timing and precip amounts. For now, will maintain slight chance of precip on Monday and Monday night, with snow levels above 7000 ft Monday morning then down to 5500 ft Monday night. Gusty westerly winds are expected over the mountains and deserts, with gusts to 40-50 mph. Weak ridging aloft will develop for the middle of next week, helping to raise highs to slightly above normal. Weak offshore flow is possible as surface high pressure builds over the Great Basin.
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&& .AVIATION...
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232005Z...Through 24/0600 UTC, primarily P6SM vis all areas, FEW-SCT clouds 2000-4000 ft msl over and west of the mountains, and mostly SKC elsewhere. 24/0600-1500 UTC, patchy BKN clouds in the 1000-3000 ft msl layer and local vis AOB 5 sm over portions of the coast and valley areas possible, with P6SM vis and mostly SKC elsewhere.
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&& .MARINE...
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At 1 pm, the San Clemente Basin Buoy showed NW winds of 19 kt gusting 23 kt, with 9.5 ft seas. Meanwhile, the nearshore buoys reported 8-10 ft seas. West-northwest winds 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt will continue over the coastal waters today. This, in addition to combined seas near or above 10 ft, will create hazardous boating conditions today. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters through this afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish by this evening.
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&& .BEACHES...
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A west-northwest swell will continue to bring elevated surf to the beaches today. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for surf of 3 to 6 ft (with local 7 ft sets) and strong rip currents. The surf will gradually lower this evening.
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&& .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM PDT this evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 30 nm-Waters from San Mateo point to the Mexican Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island. && $$ PUBLIC...JJT AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Harrison

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