Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000 FXUS66 KSGX 221730 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 930 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TUESDAY RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST MOUNTAIN AND DESERT WINDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALONG AND NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS SLOPES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOCAL WRF HAS SURFACE WINDS IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS PEAKING AT AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN IN THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. BUFKIT SHOWS THE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY...THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM (CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING TO NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A QUICK LOOK AT ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING IN AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE VERY LONG TERM SHOWS A BAGGY TROUGH OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SEEM TO SHOW A LOT OF DIVERGENCE OUT THERE. && .AVIATION... 221600Z...PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCAL VIS 3-6SM IN BR/HZ WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME P6SM BY 20Z. LOCAL SFC NE TO E WIND GUSTS 35-55 KT...AREAS OF LLWS...AND MOD-STG UDDFS POSSIBLE OVER AND SW/W OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING VCNTY OF KONT AND KSNA...WITH LIGHTER WINDS REACHING KCRQ. OTHERWISE A FEW CLOUDS AOA 20 KFT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUE MORNING. && .MARINE... 800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. && .BEACHES... 800 AM...A DECREASING W-NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED SURF TODAY...WITH SETS TO 7 FT MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. A REINFORCING LONG-PERIOD W-NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUE/EARLY WED...LIKELY CONTINUING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS INTO THURSDAY. MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUE. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX. && .FIRE WEATHER... OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS LATE TODAY...PEAK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER. && .SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE... SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS... SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...SMALL AVIATION/MARINE...JJT

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