937
FXUS64 KSHV 141959
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
259 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A welcome reprieve from rain will continue through this short-term
period as an upper-level trough slowly ejects eastward from the
Mid-MS Valley. Some wrap-around moisture continues to maintain a
fairly robust cu field across our northern and eastern zones, but
expect more rapid clearing through the evening hours after sunset.
Likewise, look for wind speeds to drop off rapidly as well as high
pressure builds firmly into the region. This will provide for more
conducive conditions favoring patchy fog development once again,
albeit not as dense or widespread as what was observed earlier
this morning. Low temperatures will generally range from the mid
50s to lower 60s.

High pressure will maintain dry and increasingly warmer conditions
on Wednesday with winds eventually trending back S/SW throughout
the day. In response, high temperatures will surge into the mid
to upper 80s and even some lower 90s in a few isolated locations
as mostly sunny skies prevail. As light southerly flow persists on
Wednesday night, overnight temperatures will run several degrees
warmer compared to tonight with cloud cover also returning across
our western half. As a result, overnight lows will range through
the 60s across the entire region.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Unfortunately, the current stretch of dry weather will come to a
screeching halt by late Thursday and especially Thursday evening
through much of Friday. Medium-range model guidance still poses a
few different scenarios with the GFS suggesting the first round of
showers and thunderstorms associated with a lead shortwave by late
Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning, followed by another
potential round of heavy rainfall late Friday into Friday night,
primarily along and south of I-20 with the primary trough axis.

Given this potential of heavy rainfall coming in two waves, total
rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated 5+ inches still look
quite possible for areas mainly south of I-20 through Friday night.
For locations along and north of I-20, rain amounts should drop off
quite sharply with around a half inch in northernmost zones up to
near 1.5-2 inches possible closer to the I-20 corridor. Expect a
Flood Watch to likely follow in the near future based on the rain
amounts expected in our southern zones, but the exact placement of
the watch will largely depend on the model consistency with these
amounts mentioned above.

As the trough axis shifts east of the region Saturday afternoon,
any lingering light rain should rapidly come to an end with dry
weather expected to prevail through the remainder of the weekend
and early next week. Upper-level ridging will expand across much
of the southern CONUS and help to propel high temperatures into
the upper 80s and lower 90s from Sunday through the remainder of
the extended period early next week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR now with 3.5-5.kft cigs over all,
but a couple of our TX sites. SFC winds are a little gusty from
the NW, but will relax after sunset with light and var or calm at
some point overnight thru sun up. Weak high pressure will keep
skies clear, but wet ground toward daybreak will radiate 3-6SM BR
with 1/4SM FG possible at KLFK. Air mass will build eastward after
midnight with light return flow from S/SE 5KT expected for Wed as
fair skies cloud up Thurs w/ more convection overnight into Fri.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  91  69  86 /   0   0   0  30
MLU  61  89  64  87 /   0   0   0  20
DEQ  54  86  62  85 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  59  89  66  87 /   0   0   0  20
ELD  58  88  63  86 /   0   0   0  20
TYR  62  89  67  81 /   0   0   0  60
GGG  61  89  67  83 /   0   0   0  50
LFK  61  90  66  83 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24