Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 010455
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING THE ARKLATEX...SKC OR SOME ANVIL CIRRUS. LIGHT S/SW
SFC WINDS OR CALM. OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN MORE IFR/MVFR
CIGS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY
18Z. LOOK FOR A CHANCE FOR TSTMS ARRIVING IN E TX BY 18-21Z AND
AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE MID SOUTH.
ATTM...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE DEEP SW FLOW ONLY 10-20KTS AND THEN
VEERING TO WNW 20 BY 5KFT UP TO 50-65KTS AT FL240-FL300. LITTLE
CHANGE ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER LOW UNTIL FROPA 04/00Z. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER ERN
OK...WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED FARTHER E
ACROSS CNTRL AR...ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR OKC...TO S
OF OKM...TO FSM...THEN E ACROSS NCNTRL AR. CONVERGENCE CONTINUES
TO FOCUS SCT CONVECTION MORESO FARTHER W ALONG THIS BNDRY ACROSS
ERN/CNTRL/WRN OK...WHERE MLCAPES ARE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG AS OF MID-EVENING. PER THE 00Z KOUN/KLZK RAOBS...NO CAPPING
INVERSION WAS EVIDENT NEAR THESE BNDRYS...ALTHOUGH CAPPING DOES
INCREASE FARTHER S ACROSS N TX AND NRN LA /PER THE 00Z KFWD/KSHV
RAOBS/...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THUS PREVENTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SWD DEVELOPMENT. THERE WAS ALSO AN OUTFLOW BNDRY
THAT DEVELOPED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER ERN AR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THAT BACKBUILDED SW TO JUST W OF A PBF...TO LLQ LINE
BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY...THUS ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT /ALBEIT
LIMITED/...SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
NEAR THESE BNDRYS AND THE HIGHER AXIS OF INSTABILITY/WEAKER CIN.

HAVE TAPERED BACK POPS THIS EVENING...BUT DID RETAIN LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR SHOULD THE SW OK CONVECTION CONTINUE
TO SHIFT E ALONG THE CONVERGENT SFC BNDRY. DID TAPER POPS DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX...AS WELL AS THE
REMAINDER OF SW AR...AND DROPPED MENTION OF POPS FARTHER S FOR THE
NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD N ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION LATE...THUS LIMITING THE TEMP FALL EVEN WITH LIGHT S
WINDS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST MIN
TEMPS PER THE 02Z OBS...BUT OVERALL...MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL IN THE
LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  80  64  81 /  10  30  20  30
MLU  61  81  64  82 /  10  20  20  30
DEQ  60  76  61  77 /  30  40  40  30
TXK  62  77  63  78 /  20  30  30  30
ELD  60  79  63  80 /  20  20  20  30
TYR  63  79  65  81 /  10  40  30  30
GGG  62  80  64  81 /  10  30  30  30
LFK  63  81  65  83 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15/05


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