Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 251622

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1022 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Upper-level shortwave ejecting east across Texas panhandle to
maintain showers and thunderstorms across mainly Interstate 20 and
points southward through the remainder of the morning. Convection
to shift northeast this afternoon, mainly affecting southern
Arkansas including El Dorado. Rain rates to increase across these
areas of southern Arkansas this afternoon with another 2 inches
possible. Based on latest precip totals and current flash flood
guidance, not expecting any widespread flooding concerns today.
Otherwise, ongoing forecast is on track at this time. /05/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 610 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018/

An area of showers across se portions of cwa, stretching from near
the klfk terminal newd to near the kmlu terminal, will begin to
slowly advance nwd across mainly southern portions of the cwa.
Cigs to gradually lower to mostly low vfr cat this aftn, although
some mvfr decks may be noted at klfk, kmlu, and possibly at kshv
and keld. As these rains are overrunning sfc boundary well south
of the area, winds will remain from the ne-e and little if any
thunder will be noted. Rain chances will begin to diminish after
26/00z although low clouds may remain trapped underneath
inversion. Some fog may be noted as well, mainly at the kmlu

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 557 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018/

Early this morning the cold front that moved across the area
yesterday had shifted into Southwest Mississippi, across Southern
Louisiana and Southeast Texas. Much of the heavier rainfall
associated with the showers and isolated thunderstorms in wake of
the boundary. The Southeast push to the area of rainfall has
slowed and will be returning back across the Southern sections of
the region today. This in response to and approaching upper level
short wave trough of low pressure in the Southwest flow
across Mexico and the Gulf Coast States along with a rich moisture
supply and added lift from strong upper level winds and the
western end of the front returning North. Another upper trough of
low pressure moving across the Four Corners region and into
Mexico this morning will continue swinging to the east nudging a
surface low that forms along the warm front over the Upper Texas
Coast Northeast into the Southeast States by early Monday. This
should move the showers and isolated thunderstorms our of the area
providing a brief dry period for Monday and Monday night with
brief ridging aloft and on the surface. That will change by
Tuesday as the Southwest flow aloft continues to provide Pacific
moisture to go along with Gulf moisture around the back side of
surface high pressure and our next warm front lifting across East
Texas and Western Louisiana. A series of perturbations in the
flow aloft will aid with development of convection and areas of
heavy rainfall will return Tuesday and Tuesday night along and
ahead of the front. A closed upper level low will be moving across
the Desert Southwest and expected to become an open wave as it
swings across Wester Texas and New Mexico and the Southern Rockies
before shifting out across the Plains. This system will move a
surface low pressure area across the Pan Handles of Texas and
Oklahoma that will have a dry line dropping South across West
Texas with a cold trailing with a nearly stationary boundary the
length of the country to the Northeast into the Great Lakes Region
and the Northeast States. The warm front will extend to the East
from the surface low and arch across Eastern Oklahoma, Southern
Arkansas, and through Southwest Mississippi to the Northeast Gulf
of Mexico. This complex system will continue to produce showers
and thunderstorms for the Four State Region with continued heavy
rainfall across the ArkLaTex of one to three inches with a threat
of flash flooding and flooding and the possibility of severe
weather. The upper trough axis shifts East of the area on Thursday
taking the surface low toward the Great Lakes and its trailing
cold front off to our East, bringing our rainfall to an end. A dry
period will follow from late Thursday through the first half of
the next weekend with ridging on the surface and aloft prevailing.
Temperatures will start gradually warm into the weekend with
rainfall possible by late Sunday as ridge axis aloft shifts to the
East and a Southwest flow returns with a weakly amplified and
broad upper trough moves over the Western half of the country and
moisture returns from the Gulf. /06/


SHV  62  47  70  50 /  50  30  10  10
MLU  60  49  69  48 /  70  80  10  10
DEQ  62  40  68  43 /  10  10   0  10
TXK  62  43  68  47 /  10  10   0  10
ELD  62  44  69  45 /  30  30   0  10
TYR  63  47  70  50 /  30  10  10  10
GGG  62  47  70  50 /  40  10  10  10
LFK  61  49  72  54 /  80  50  10  10




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