Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 291149
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
649 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. A WARM FRONT
THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-20 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS LED TO SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND AT KTXK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...GIVING WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS. AT THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED DUE TO LOW CLOUDS.
EXPECT A MIX BAG TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS LOW CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT THE REGION. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FCST TO SAY THE LEAST TODAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD AND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. WITH STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING...WILL BE BRIEF WITH THIS
DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THIS MORNING FIRING AS A RESULT OF A DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. THIS
CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND ORIENTED JUST NORTH OF A RETURNING
WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS RETURNING WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WINDS TODAY THUS HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS
PACKAGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST HALF THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE SFC BASED AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING/
DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA WHICH INCLUDES
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NE TX...SE OK AND SW AR. ASSUMING THIS
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD RAMP UP ACROSS THIS SAME REGION... BASICALLY
WHERE THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH RESIDES. AM GETTING MORE
CONCERNED OF A SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHICH SHOULD FIRE UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35/I-45 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THIS WAY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE ALL POINTING AT THIS CONVECTION MOVING
RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE KEY POINT IS THAT IT WILL
BE MOVING WITH NO REAL TRAINING THREAT THAT I CAN SEE...HENCE THE
LACK OF ANY SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PER WPC SOUTH OF THE
EXISTING AREA FURTHER NORTH. ALL THIS TO SAY WILL NOT BE MAKING
ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FFA TODAY WITH THE OPTION BEING TO
EXPAND IT FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT IF A HEAVIER/TRAINING EVENT
BECOMES APPARENT. THAT WILL AVOID THE SEGMENTED FFA AREA CONFUSION
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT NORTH TODAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT END FOR SATURDAY
BUT INSTEAD...SHIFTS EAST SLIGHTLY...ENCOMPASSING MORE OF S AR AND
N LA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR SAT AFTN. WE WILL BE WORKED
OVER PRETTY WELL FROM LATE NIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION SO AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WILL PLAY A BIG KEY TO THE SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT
DURING THE DAY SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT NIGHT.

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE TO TIME
RESTRAINTS GIVEN THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THANKS FOR THE
COORDINATION THIS MORNING FWD...JAN. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  67  82  64 /  50  90  70  50
MLU  87  68  84  66 /  40  90  70  70
DEQ  76  64  82  56 /  90  90  40  20
TXK  82  66  82  60 /  80  90  50  30
ELD  82  67  80  63 /  80  90  70  50
TYR  86  67  84  61 /  70  90  50  20
GGG  86  67  82  62 /  60  90  50  30
LFK  90  68  82  66 /  30  90  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
     165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

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