Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 260000
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
700 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND JUST BRIEFLY
DEGRADE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH MID MORNING. SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP AFTER 26/15Z
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT/VRBL WINDS
AT THE S AR SITES WHILE S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
/19/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FILLING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WHICH IS
AIDING IN CONVECTION ALONG THE EXTREME SE TX COAST INT SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST LA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FILLING TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH MIXING HELPING TO DRY OUT SFC DEWPOINTS. WE WERE
NOT ABLE TO MIX THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC
TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...WILL CANCEL THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM PROGS SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT FROM SE TX AND S LA WITH THIS MOISTURE MAKING IT NEARLY
TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AR AND EAST CENTRAL OK...MAKING IT
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AND PUSHING SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SFC HEATING...RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR NW ZONES IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY BUT FEEL LIKELY OUT BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT COVERAGE
WILL KEEP ME FROM MAKING ANY MENTION OF THIS IN THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

A VERY WET PERIOD WILL BEGIN ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST IS SLOW TO EJECT
OUT. VIGOROUS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING UP PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST ZONES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL
WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THAT MOST OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS SAW BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE CONVECTION LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMOUNT THE MEDIUM
RANGE PROGS WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AR. BY TUE NIGHT...WE SHOULD HAVE BE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE RAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEAN
THIS DRIER PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  88  61  75 /   0  10  30  50
MLU  62  86  61  75 /  10  10  20  50
DEQ  52  85  58  68 /   0  20  40  50
TXK  57  86  62  74 /   0  10  30  50
ELD  58  86  60  69 /   0  10  20  50
TYR  64  89  64  76 /   0  20  30  50
GGG  63  89  62  75 /   0  20  30  50
LFK  67  90  69  78 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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