Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 291237
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
737 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 29/12Z terminal forecast period expecting mostly VFR flight
categories with the exception of a few sites with visibility
restrictions in br/mist. surface winds will be light and variable.
/06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 421 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A couple of strong to occasionally severe clusters of
thunderstorms persist over Central Texas along I-20 approaching
the DFW Metroplex and another along the I-10 corridor and the San
Antonio area. Latest mesoanalysis indicates quite a bit of CAPE
exists over Central Texas, but the instability decreases
significantly over East Texas. Convection should gradually weaken
as it progresses eastward and encounters the lower instability.
There is a chance some of this activity could persist into the
northwest half of the CWA today or that there could be some
redevelopment along remnant outflow boundaries. Therefore, slight
chance PoPs were maintained west of a Lufkin to Prescott line.

The weather pattern will remain very unsettled through the
upcoming work week. A series of weak upper impulses will cross
the Southern Plains over the northern fringe of a weak upper ridge
over Mexico. These impulses will aid in the development of
convective complexes each afternoon across the Plains ahead of a
cold front and dryline. These complexes will then move east or
southeast towards our area, and if they can hold together,
reaching the CWA during the early morning hours of the following
day. Considerable uncertainty always exists regarding the duration
and just how far these complexes will move.

As the week progresses, the upper ridge will weaken and an upper
trough currently off the California coast will slowly move
eastward as it remains removed from the stronger westerlies. As
vertical ascent from the approaching trough moves over the area,
rain chances will increase Tuesday and especially for the latter
half of the week as the trough moves overhead and helps to push a
cold front across the area. Medium range models are in fairly
good agreement with the upper trough remaining relatively cut off
from the main westerlies and lingering over the Northwest Gulf
Coast through next weekend. This will likely keep showers and
thunderstorms across the area, especially south of I-20.

Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions will persist. Daytime high
temperatures should be above 80 degrees F areawide today through
Tuesday. Locations along and south of I-20 will likely approach 90
degrees F, especially across much of Louisiana. Lower temperatures
can be expected for the latter half of the week due to the
widespread precip.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  71  88  69 /  20  10  20  20
MLU  89  70  90  70 /  10  10  30  20
DEQ  86  67  85  66 /  20  20  30  20
TXK  86  69  86  68 /  20  20  30  20
ELD  88  68  88  67 /  20  20  30  20
TYR  85  70  86  68 /  20  20  40  20
GGG  87  69  85  68 /  20  20  30  20
LFK  88  69  87  68 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/09


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