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000
FXUS64 KSHV 011159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
559 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS IN THE FOUR STATE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
SHIFT MORE TOWARDS AREAS NW OF A KJSO-KMLU LINE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY PREVAILED RAIN OR VCSH FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE AFTER 01/18Z
ESPECIALLY WHEN RAIN IS FALLING. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WET PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. TODAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR NATCHITOCHES TO MONROE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RIDING OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF
THE FRONT TO ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
AVECT MUCH WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SHOULD BE INTERESTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE
UPPER 20S BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECTING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITH A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING UPPER-
TROUGH FROM TEXAS. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  48  43  50  49  71 /  80  70  70  40  50
MLU  54  43  49  48  73 /  80  70  70  40  50
DEQ  45  38  44  40  62 /  40  60  50  50  70
TXK  45  39  44  43  66 /  70  70  60  50  70
ELD  45  39  45  43  69 /  80  70  70  40  50
TYR  45  42  50  48  69 /  50  70  60  40  60
GGG  47  43  50  49  70 /  60  70  70  40  50
LFK  56  49  57  56  74 /  70  60  70  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09