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990
FXUS64 KSHV 251622 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1122 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Convection is still well to the west of the area and will most
likely hold off until the mid afternoon. Therefore, PoPs were
trimmed back through 18z. Temperatures are warming quickly in the
eastern half of the CWA where there is more sunshine. Some
locations are already near 90 degrees F. However, increasing
clouds from the west should slow the rate of warming. Some minor
changes were made to the hourly temp and dewpoint grids based on
latest obs and trends, but the high temp forecast for today was
left intact.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 646 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

AVIATION...
Looking for the possibility of patchy fog developing over the next
couple hours or so at the TXK/ELD/MLU/LFK terminals given low
temp/dewpt spreads in a fairly warm and moist low level airmass.
Further west near the TYR/GGG/LFK terminals...cannot rule out the
possibility of LIFR/IFR ceilings as this is where the highest low
level moisture exists near or below 1kft. Regional radar mosaics
showing prefrontal activity remains well west of our terminal
locations and that is likely where it will remain...at least until
daytime heating commences when we should see cu development and
isolated to widely scattered convection developing. Feel like the
best areas to see this will be near or NW of the I-30 corridor and
for this reason...have introduced VCTS for the TYR/GGG
terminals...running it through the afternoon into the early
evening. Cannot rule very isolated showers or convection further
east but chances do not warrant a terminal mention attm.

The much talked about cold front will be moving into our NW
terminal locations this evening...working its way quickly south
and west through the overnight hours. Could be patchy fog
developing once again overnight ahead and behind this boundary not
to mention the possibility of lowering ceilings in the wake of the
boundary as well.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 442 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery reveals the changing upper level pattern now
underway across our region. The upper ridge which has dominated
for days now is finally shifting east across the TN/OH valleys.
However, its presence will still be felt today as temperatures
climb back into the lower to mid 90s despite increasing clouds
from the west. This is occurring along and out ahead of a cold
front which has made it into the DFW metroplex this morning where
a deep moisture axis has set up just west of the I-35 corridor.
Southwest flow aloft is being energized due to a developing closed
low in what was the base of the deep long wave trough now ejecting
northeast across the upper Plains.

The closed upper low is progged to retrograde over northern Mexico
and effectively keep this deep layer moisture bottled up over west
Texas. The result for us will be limited available moisture ahead
of the cold front advancing our way later today on through Monday.
Thus, the outlook for appreciable rain continues to diminish over
the next few days. In fact, it`s continuing to look more likely
that most areas will miss out on rainfall altogether and have
indicated this by lowering pops into the low chance category for
tonight through Monday as the cold front shifts across the region.

Despite the lack of rainfall expected, the good news is the cold
front will usher in some much welcome cooler air more reminiscent
of early fall. Expect highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s through
much of the upcoming week in the wake of the front. The bad news
for those areas missing out on rainfall today and Monday is that
upper ridging will quickly build back over the region by mid week,
all but assuring a warm and dry forecast well into the foreseeable
future. In the end, this September will likely end up being one
of the driest we`ve experienced after what was a very wet August.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  73  86  64 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  95  72  87  63 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  91  68  78  55 /  20  30  30  10
TXK  92  71  81  59 /  20  30  30  10
ELD  93  71  82  59 /  20  20  30  10
TYR  90  71  83  63 /  30  30  30  20
GGG  91  72  86  63 /  30  30  30  20
LFK  91  72  88  67 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09