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000
FXUS64 KSHV 251924
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
224 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
2 PM AND STILL AWAITING SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST AND IS
BEGINNING TO BECOME ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL
EVENTUALLY HEAD OUR WAY BUT WILL QUICKLY LOSE ITS INTENSITY AS IT
DOES. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN HALF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS CONVECTION REACHED
ITS MAXIMUM YESTERDAY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM. WENT CLOSER TO NAM POP
OUTPUT AS THE GFS IS OBVIOUSLY EXHIBITING SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES.
PWATS ARE HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH TO WARRANT LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION BUT
AGAIN...THIS IS CLOSER TO THE NAM POP OUTPUT AND NOT THE INFLATED
GFS.

BEYOND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. COUPLE THIS WITH MUCH LOWER PWATS AND THE LACK OF ANY
SURFACE FOCUS AND THE RESULT WILL BE NO RAIN CHANCES. INSTEAD...A
DEEP TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE CARVES ITS WAY OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AT THE
SFC UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER AT LEAST OUR
WESTERN ZONES FOR MEMORIAL DAY. IN FACT...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO
REMAIN PRETTY STAGNANT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONSECUTIVE BREEZY DAYS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THE INTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORTENED WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK IS A RESULT OF INCREASED
PWAT AND THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST THAT WE
COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEABREEZE ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO MEX TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF MAY.

PRELIM TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION A BIT SLOW TO GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
EXPECTING SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE LATER AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS ACROSS TX. BASED ON THE CURRENT CU FIELD...THE GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS E TX. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SELY WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS...WITH PATCHY MVFR STRATUS
POSSIBLE 26/09Z-16Z. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  87  66  88  68 /  20  30  20  10  10
MLU  64  84  64  86  65 /  20  30  20  10  10
DEQ  66  83  62  87  65 /  30  30  20  10  10
TXK  67  84  63  87  66 /  20  30  20  10  10
ELD  64  84  62  87  65 /  20  30  20  10  10
TYR  70  86  67  88  68 /  30  30  20  10  10
GGG  69  86  65  88  68 /  30  30  20  10  10
LFK  71  90  66  91  69 /  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12