Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 291925
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
225 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Convection ongoing across the region this aftn as anticipated,
with temps hovering in the upper 80s to low 90s. Upper low just
off the se TX coast will gradually lose influence on our region
through midweek, as the upper ridge builds back in across our nrn
sections, and the upper low drifts swwd along the coast. This
should result in lesser coverage of aftn tstms for Tue/Wed, and
temps may be able to tick upwards into the mid 90s for some
locations. This warming combined with low to mid 70s dew points
may result in a few isold locations reaching heat index values
around 105 degrees. Attm, it appears that a Heat Advisory will not
be needed due to the isold/brief nature of the higher heat index
values.

As we move into Thursday, a shortwave rounding the upper trof over
the nern CONUS will bring a cold front into the region, increasing
our chances for tstms once again. This cold front will also help
to cool our temps/dew points down as well, especially over the ern
half of the region. Latest MOS blends have trended temps/dew
points down quite a bit from previous runs. Min temps in the low
to mid 60s seems a bit aggressive for early September, so have
adjusted temps/dew points up a degree or two and will watch trends
over the next couple of days for more consistency.

The upper ridge builds in over the region once again through the
weekend and into early next work week, which will continue to keep
our chances for rain at 20 percent or less and our temps climbing.
/12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1236 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

AVIATION...
A weak boundary across portions of Deep East Texas to allow for
VCTS conditions across LFK/TYR/GGG terminal sites this afternoon.
Aside for the possibility of MVFR visibilities across select
terminals around daybreak, VFR conditions expected through the
terminal forecast period. Otherwise, light northeast winds tonight
to become variable overnight and again out of the northeast on
Tuesday. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  75  94  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  94  75  95  74 /  20  20  20  10
DEQ  93  74  92  72 /  30  10  20  10
TXK  92  75  92  73 /  30  20  20  10
ELD  93  75  93  73 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  90  74  92  74 /  30  20  20  10
GGG  92  74  92  74 /  30  20  20  10
LFK  90  74  93  74 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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