Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 180817
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
317 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A weak surface boundary across the region to serve as the catalyst
for widely scattered convection this afternoon. With zonal flow
aloft, low-level mixing and instability to be sufficient to keep
temperatures in the lower to middle 90s across most areas.
Lufkin and surrounding areas, however, could possibly climb to
around 96 degrees this afternoon. This, combined with dewpoint
values in the mid 70s early in the day before mixing out could
lead to heat index values knocking on heat advisory criteria near
105 degrees by late morning. However, any momentary spikes in
heat index values above 105 degrees will be isolated. Therefore,
will hold off on a heat advisory at this time.

Northwest flow aloft to return on Friday night. Impulses within
the mean flow to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to
interstate 30 overnight. On Saturday, residual outflow boundaries
to maintain scattered convection across southern Arkansas and
northeast Louisiana throughout the day. High temperatures on
Saturday to climb into the mid 90s with heat index values
averaging around 105 to 108 degrees.

Upper-level ridge struggles to establish a hold across the region
on Sunday as a low in the central Gulf of Mexico moves westward
toward south Texas. Instability associated with the low will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday
afternoons across the ArkLaTex. Due to increased cloud cover,
high temperatures are forecast to climb into the low 90s areawide
each day.

As southerly flow increases on the east side of upper-low that is
forecast to move into south Texas on Tuesday, an enhanced
seabreeze across south Louisiana and southeast Texas will shift
north bringing scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
south of interstate 20.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continues into Wednesday and
Thursday in conjunction with a frontal boundary that will approach
the region from the north. Otherwise, much cooler temperatures
expected behind the front late next week. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1209 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 18/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail for much of
the TAF cycle with multiple cloud layers throughout the period.
Patchy fog is possible closer to daybreak at sites where rainfall
has occurred in the past 24 hours, especially with lgt/vrbl to
near calm winds. Model guidance suggests a 4-5Kft cloud deck also
expanding areawide early Friday morning with mid and high clouds
lingering throughout the period as well. Winds will increase from
the SW between 5-10 kts after 18/15Z with cu field scattering out
during the afternoon hours. Convection will be very scarce and
not worthy of mention in this TAF cycle. Winds will drop off back
to near 5 kts or less by 19/00Z.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  77  96  77 /  20  10  30  20
MLU  94  76  95  76 /  30  10  30  20
DEQ  92  74  94  74 /  20  30  20  20
TXK  93  76  95  75 /  20  20  20  20
ELD  93  76  95  75 /  20  10  30  20
TYR  94  77  95  77 /  20  10  20  20
GGG  94  77  95  77 /  20  10  20  20
LFK  97  76  97  76 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/19



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