Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 211952
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
352 PM AST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...LOCALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SURGE IN MOISTURE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AS IT PASSES BY OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. EVEN SO...MAY SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS...HOWEVER...WEATHER ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY DIURNAL DRIVEN
IN NATURE. WHILE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NEXT WEEK...EXPECT SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND EACH DAY...AS
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. NO LARGE SCALE
WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ THROUGH 21/22Z...WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED
AT THE REST OF LOCAL TAF SITES. THEREAFTER...PREVAILING VFR FORECAST
FOR THE ENTIRE FLYING AREA OVERNIGHT AT LEAST THROUGH 22/04Z...
FOLLOWED BY PROB30 OF PASSING SHRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ... TISX...
TIST...TNCM...AND TKPK FM 22/04Z-22/06Z. ELSEWHERE...VA EMISSIONS
CONTINUE FM TRPG...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST DURG THE NEXT 24 HRS. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...
FAINT ASH AN GAS EMISSIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR WATER
JUST EAST NORTHEAST OF THE TIST AIRDROME BTW TIST AND TUPJ.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 91 DEGREES AT THE LUIS
MUNOZ INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN TODAY. THIS BROKE THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER 21ST...WHICH REACH 90
DEGREES BACK IN 2006.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  87  76  87 /  40  40  40  40
STT  78  87  77  87 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.

&&

$$

09/04





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