Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 020945
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW/TUTT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER PR BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN
DUSTS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WETTER
TRADES WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE HAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PR EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW/TUTT...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED THE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...REACHING
A MAXIMUM OF 1.8 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 03/06Z. HOWEVER...
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WAVE.
AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL ADVECT OVER THE
PR/USVI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN...DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MAS WILL REDUCE
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FROM
MONDAY EVENING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WETTER TRADE WINDS WILL
BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THE
SECOND PART OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRF MVFR XPCTD IN SOME SHRA THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL
VFR CONT. SCT SHRA/TSRA CNTRL/WEST PR SUN AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS.
VFR WITH ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLW FL100 E 15-25 KT TODAY...
INCR LATE SUN NITE AND MON TO 20-40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 20KT. ALTHOUGH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  90  79  90 /  40  40  30  30
STT  80  89  79  90 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11



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