Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 311821
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 60W THIS AFTERNOON...WILL REACH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER YESTERDAY TROPICAL WAVE...A RELATIVELY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST.
THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST SURFACE AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS...DEPICTED A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 60 WEST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THAT WAVE...A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION AGAIN FROM THE EAST PROMOTING ONLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON UNTIL AT
LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TJMZ BETWEEN 18Z-22Z IN
SHRA/-TSRA...WITH MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCD OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS. SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER
ANTILLES ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IMPACTING MAINLY THE
LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  79  91 /  50  50  40  40
STT  80  90  79  88 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

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