Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 280121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
921 PM AST FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...Minor changes were introduced to short term grids,
forecast on track. Ridge aloft will continue to slowly erode
during the next few days, as a broad mid to upper level trough
across the western Atlantic and central Caribbean sinks southeast
into forecast area. Under this pattern, the potential for shower
and thunderstorm development will continue to increase each day.


.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected overnight across
the local flying area with vicinity shra across TIST...TISX...TJSJ
and TJPS 28/14Z. Cloudiness over the area will cause CIGS at around
FL080 tonight and tomorrow. After 28/18Z SHRA and ISOLD TSRA are
possible across NW PR...which could affect TJBQ and possible TJMZ.
Winds from the ESE at around 10KT overnight increasing after 28/13Z
to 10 to 15 knots.


.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions will continue across the
local waters with seas generally 3 to 5 feet. Winds are expected
to slightly increase late tonight into Saturday up to 20 knots.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM AST FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...Passing showers continued to affect mostly the
eastern portions of Puerto Rico from mid morning to early
afternoon. Most of these showers have generated nay significant
rainfall accumulations. Another area of light to moderate showers
developed over the central interior of Puerto Rico Mainly affecting
the municipalities of Jayuya and Utuado.

A low pressure system located over the Bahamas will increase moisture
across the Central and Eastern Caribbean. A broad area of high
pressure across the Central Atlantic continues to weaken. A weak
tropical wave located south of Puerto Rico will continue to move
west and away from the region through Saturday.

Models guidance continue to suggests that the weekend could be
more active as moisture is forecast to increase across the local
region. This moisture increase may be heavily influenced by the
development of the disturbance to the north of the Bahamas,
therefore we will continue to monitor the development of this
disturbance and make changes to the forecast package as needed.

AVIATION...VFR conds expected through the forecast period with VCSH
for most of the terminals. Cloudiness over the area will cause CIGS
at around FL080 today and tonight. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA possible
across NNW PR...which could affect areas near TJBQ after 27/18Z.
Winds from the ESE at around 10KT...decreasing winds after 27/23Z.
Winds to increase to 10-15kt again after 28/13Z from the ESE with
sea breeze variations.

MARINE...Seas generally 3 to 5 feet and up to around 15 knots.
Winds to increase late tonight into Saturday to 15 to 20 knots.


SJU  77  88  78  88 /  30  50  40  50
STT  79  87  78  86 /  50  40  40  40


.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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