Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 291854
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP POLAR TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT
BUILDS SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&


.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED OVER
2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE COAST OF HUMACAO EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WERE JUST OVER HALF
AN INCH OF RAIN REPORTED NEAR RIO GUAYANES IN YABUCOA...BUT HEAVY
SHOWERS WERE FORMING OVER ANASCO AND WESTERN PR BY 2 PM AST. NAM
FORECASTS SHOWERS MOVING ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST CHANCES OFF SHORE WITH THE
SHEAR-LINE CLOSE BY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES OF 50
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL AND NEAR SHORE AREAS WEST OF
SAN JUAN WHERE THE SHEAR-LINE IS LIKELY TO BE.

&&


.AVIATION...SHEAR LINE NW OF PR BUT ONLY BRIEF MVFR IS EXPECTED DUE
TO SHRA AND WILL PUT MORE CREDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION THAT KEEPS
THE SHEAR LINE OFFSHORE UNTIL AT LEAST 30/14Z. SHRA REACH TNCM AFT
30/08Z BUT DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER TKPK. ISOLD TSRA VCNTY SHEAR LINE.
WINDS ALOFT HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT LEAST UP THROUGH 14
KFT...BUT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT DOWNWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS REACHING 11 KFT BY 31/00Z. WIND SPEEDS BELOW 15 KFT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 15 KT EXCEPT GUSTY VICINITY SHRA.

&&


.MARINE...THE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL ARE ALMOST 6 FEET AT RINCON.
SINCE SEAS ARE STILL NEAR 9 FEET AT BUOY 41046...WILL CONSIDER NOT
DROPPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR OUR ATLANTIC WATERS.
NEW NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  83  73  83 /  50  50  30  30
STT  77  84  76  84 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

12/13





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