Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 230408

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1008 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Somewhat drier air will remain over the area through
Sunday. Deeper moisture will return to Utah Monday through


.DISCUSSION...The mean ridge remains centered roughly over w
central UT and e central NV this eve. Convection was fairly active
over wrn UT under the ridge as far north as central Tooele county
with storms also extending from the Wasatch Plateau southward
down thru swrn UT. Activity persists this eve over swrn UT nwwd
into central and nern NV and expect a few cells to linger
overnight in these areas.

Models weaken the high over the next 24 hours and shift the center
over srn CO by tomorrow eve. The deep moisture will stay pinned
to the UT/AZ border thru the day but does start to spread north
aft 00z Mon. There appears to be a weak wave that is setting off
the NV convection and this tracks across nrn UT during the day
tomorrow possibly generating a few cells in spite of the drier
airmass in place. Elsewhere expect isolated terrain based
convection over central and srn UT with not too much of a chance
of heavy rain.

Models place an easterly wave over nwrn Mexico this eve. This wave
is forecast by the GFS to track up the west side of the ridge
across AZ on Mon and UT Mon night into Tue. This timing is
favorable for enhanced convection in deep moisture over swrn UT
Mon aftn/eve but not so much for the north. However, the EC is
about 12 hours slower which would be less favorable for the south
Mon aftn but more so for the north on Tue aftn. Both models turn
the flow more swly on Wed but keep plenty of moisture in place
and expect another active day.

For now, updated earlier to lower pops over nern UT for the rest
of the night but kept a mention of isolated convection across most
of the south and up the west side of the state overnight. No
additional updates planned.


.AVIATION...Winds at the SLC terminal will prevail out of the
southeast through Sunday morning.





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