Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 231034
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
434 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
BROUGHT STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...AS
WELL AS VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION. ONE
LAST VORTICITY LOBE IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN UT AT
THIS TIME. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN UT AND SOUTHWEST WY. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE
MORNING HOURS CONTINUE ON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC.

MEANWHILE THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE CONTINUES
TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UT...AND WILL EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THE UPPER FORCING BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THIS BOUNDARY...THE SURFACE GRADIENT
AND FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AND AS SUCH POST-FRONTAL
WINDS CONTINUE TO WANE IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY. DROPPED THE
GOING WIND ADVISORY FOR CASTLE COUNTRY AND THE WESTERN UINTA BASIN
EARLIER...AS POST FRONTAL DOWNSLOPE WINDS REMAINED RELATIVELY
BENIGN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND. ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPS MAY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK NEAR THE ID BORDER...A
COMBINATION OF WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
SHOULD KEEP A HARD FREEZE FROM OCCURRING.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT SWINGING A
ROBUST TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS THIS TROUGH REACHES THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALBEIT NOT
QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS PAST EVENT. INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHERN UT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT AS WELL AS ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...BRINGING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN UT...THEN INTO
SATURDAY AREAWIDE. RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AND ALSO INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...WEEKEND TROUGH SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY
EXITED THE STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES
TO INDICATE ONE LAST WAVE LINGERING OVER PRIMARILY EASTERN UTAH
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH
THROUGH MONDAY.

BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...RESULTING
IN A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. LATEST GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN THURSDAY AS A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IN THE ECMWF THE RIDGE HOLD STRONG WELL PAST DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 6000 FT AGL BETWEEN 12Z AND
14Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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