Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

000
FXUS65 KSLC 090926
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
326 AM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring a drying and warming trend
beginning Tuesday and continuing through the remainder of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM THURSDAY)...As the closed low over
Arizona continues to shift eastward, broad ridging will continue
to develop over the western US, with high pressure residing over
the Great Basin for much of the work week. Largely dry, stable
conditions and increasing temperatures are expected as a result.

Early this morning, a strong pressure gradient continues to
produce breezy conditions with gusts as high as 40 mph near
canyons in Washington County. As the pressure gradient relaxes
this morning, this should lead to an overall decreasing trend in
wind speeds by mid day. The forecast area as a whole will
continue to experience light, northerly to northwesterly flow
through the short-term period as anticyclonic flow persists over
the western US.

A weak mid-level wave will graze across southeastern ID and
southwestern WY this afternoon/evening, producing a few light
snow showers over the Bear River Range and Uinta Mountains with
no accumulations expected. Otherwise, expect largely quiescent
weather over the next few days as temperatures return to near
normal by Wednesday.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Thursday)...The beginning of the long term
period will feature a longwave ridge axis overhead, maintaining a
dry and mild airmass across the forecast area. Temperatures Thursday
afternoon will run roughly 10F above climo, with upper 60s to low
70s forecast across most valleys including the Wasatch Front, and
low to mid 80s across the low deserts of southern Utah.

This ridge axis will slide east Friday, allowing southwesterly flow
to overspread the region, resulting in a warming trend of 5-8F
across northern Utah, with KSLC forecast to warm into the upper 70s.
Meanwhile a warming trend of 2-5F is forecast across the south.
Within this flow, the remnants of an old upper low off the Baja
coast is forecast to lift inland, spreading high based moisture
across the eastern Great Basin/Colorado Plateau region, and fueling
a threat for high based convection Friday afternoon/evening (20-30%
probability).

Heading into the weekend, model guidance is in good agreement
digging an upper low south along the California coast, and
maintaining a mild southerly flow downstream across the eastern
Great Basin. Cooling aloft along with an increase in cloud cover
will knock 2-4F off Saturday high temps, which will continue to run
nearly 10F above climo in the north, and roughly 5F above climo in
the south.

As would be expected with any upstream cutoff low, spread in the
model guidance increases significantly with respect to the timing and
evolution of the upstream low as it eventually ejects inland during
the Sunday/Monday timeframe. Confidence is high in a cooling trend
during this timeframe, however confidence in the
placement/timing/magnitude of precipitation during the Sunday/Monday
timeframe is low given the considerable uncertainty in
system evolution.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Light, southeasterly flow will continue until a
transition to northwesterly around 17-18z. VFR conditions will
prevail.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail
with largely diurnally-driven wind shifts. Areas across southern
and eastern Utah will favor a northerly direction, though winds
aren`t expected to exceed 10-15kts even during the afternoon. A
few isolated snow showers may develop across the Bear River Range
and Uinta Mtns during the late afternoon and early evening.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cunningham/Seaman

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