Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 071707
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
907 AM PST Fri Mar 7 2014
Dry and mild conditions continue through Saturday. A disturbance
will likely bring precipitation to the region Sunday and Monday.
Dry and mild conditions return for Tuesday through the end of
Satellite imagery shows a ridge of high pressure moving over the
West Coast. Looking upstream, a large and complex area of low
pressure is circulating along the northern Pacific near 150N.
This will be the next low pressure system, due to arrive late
this weekend. For the time being however, temperatures are
running a fair bit cooler than 24 hours ago (owing to strong
radiational cooling overnight).
Dry and mild weather with variable cloudiness is expected today
and Saturday under the influence of high pressure. Look for
temperatures to warm into the lower 70s across the Central Valley
today, with 50s and 60s over the higher elevations. These
temperatures are up to 8 degrees warmer than normal. High
temperatures will be slightly warmer Saturday vs today.
The next low pressure system will start to bring precipitation to
the far northern portions of the state late Saturday night, then
slowly spread southward through the day Sunday and into Monday.
This system looks somewhat similar to the last one in that snow
levels will start out quite high but drop below Sierra pass
levels behind the front Monday. Additionally, it wouldnt be too
surprising to see some thunderstorms with this system, but it`s
too early to say when and where they may be.
.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
Frontal system forecast to move through NORCAL earlier in the week
will have shifted well east of the forecast area by early Tuesday.
May see a few morning showers lingering over the Sierra early in
the day as the upper trough shifts into the Great Basin. By mid
day Tuesday, upper ridge is forecast to take control with warm and
dry conditions expected through the middle part of next week.
Daytime highs Tuesday through Thursday are forecast to come in
several degrees above normal. Breezy north winds can be expected
Tuesday and Wednesday as surface high pressure makes its way
through the Pacific Northwest.
Extended models having some difficulty towards the end of the
extended period both in model to model and run to run consistency.
Extended models appear to be latching on to some sort of
disturbance moving into the west coast ridge over the Pacific
Northwest around Friday. Position...strength and timing have
changed with each run. With some sort of system looking more
likely...have included slight threat of showers over northern
zones on Friday. Main impact for most areas will be a slight cool
down but daytime highs still likely to remain at least a little
VFR conditions over interior Norcal thru Sat with upper ridge
dominating the wx pattern. BKN CI/CS moving thru ridge at times.
Light Nly surface flow over valley...local NE to Ely wind gusts to
25 kts at times over Siernev with stronger gusts over ridges.