Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS66 KSTO 262130

230 PM PDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mainly warm and dry weather will continue into next week for the
majority of the area. Weak systems may bring a few showers to the
mountains this weekend into early next week.


High pressure will continue to dominate weather through late Friday
as ridge axis begins to shift eastward. Skies will be mostly
clear tonight and Friday with dry weather. Temperatures on Friday
will be similar to today, maybe a degree or two warmer. Several
daily high temperatures records will likely be broken as records
are lower than today`s. March 27th records are 79 at Sac Exec, 82
at Stockton, 83 at Red Bluff and Redding, and 85 at Modesto and
downtown Sac.

As ridge shifts to the east, a shortwave trough will weaken and
move onshore late Friday into Saturday. As has been the cause over
the last month, best dynamics will be removed to the north across
WA and OR with only a small chance of any precip falling across
far northern portions of the area. Have continued with slight
chance POPs mainly across Shasta County for Saturday with only a
few hundredths of precip expected, if any at all. As trough moves
east, low possibility exists for a shower or two across the
central Sierra on Sunday. Models disagree a bit in the details but
hinting at the possibility for weak instability across this area.
Have left out chance for thunder given such small chance of
shower development and will left future shifts refine. Otherwise,
dry weather expected across the rest of the area for the weekend.
Increase in cloud cover with this system will lead to slightly
cooler (a degree or two) temperatures, but still above normal for
this time of year.



.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Generally dry and mild weather is expected next week. The warmest
day is expected to be Monday, with near record temperatures for
Stockton and Modesto as upper level rebounds. Greater cloud cover
to the north may keep temperatures a little lower for locations
such as Redding. A weak disturbance passing to the north will
flatten the ridge and bring a drop of around 4-5 degrees for
Tuesday high temperatures. Additional disturbances passing by to
the north will keep a similar pattern going through the week. The
only potential for precipitation is hinted at by the 12z ECMWF
model. This has a shortwave trough brushing by with the northern
mountains on Thursday and Friday, which could potentially bring
some light mountain showers. The GFS shows something similar, but
drier. Will lean towards this drier solution.

Current forecast projections suggest this could end up being one
of the warmest March`s on record in some Norcal locations. EK



VFR conditions to continue over the next 24 hours with mostly
clear skies and variable winds less than 10 kts for TAF sites.


.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.