Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 111126
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
326 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather through early next week except for a slight
chance of light showers across the northern mountains over the
weekend. The next chance of precipitation across the whole north
state expected around the middle of next week. Daytime highs above
normal through early next week dropping to closer to normal by mid
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure ridging over the west coast continues while an
offshore weather system spills high cloudiness across the north
state. Less high cloudiness to the south has allowed light fog to
form again in the northern San Joaquin valley this morning. The
upper ridge axis will slip eastward a bit today allowing for a bit
more cooling but daytime highs are still expected to come in 10 or
more degrees above normal for this time of year. The upper ridge
axis will be displaced even farther to the east on Friday as a
weak system rides over the ridge and into the Pacific northwest.
A slight chance of light precipitation exists across the northern
mountains of Shasta county Friday afternoon and night but any
amounts of would be very light and daytime highs Friday will
remain well above normal. Upper ridging rebuilds Saturday and
Sunday for a small warming trend while another system passes to
the north late Sunday bringing another slight chance of light
showers to the northern mountains. Breezy north winds develop
behind this system on Sunday but are not expected to be critically
strong and generally below about 15 knots.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

The ridge axis shifts over NorCal early next week with a 585-586dm
High center to the SW toward 35N 127W. The NAEFS low level
anomalies are 4+ Mon and Tue just off the SoCal coast, while
NorCal anomalies are less than 2. Interior NorCal shows a heat
return period every 2-5 years Mon and Tue, with hottest day on Mon.
Once again, portions of the forecast area (especially the southern
area) will flirt with near record maxes. Breezy north to northeasterly
winds expected Monday and overnight.

Models are still forecasting a fairly dynamic frontal system to
impact NorCal Wed and/or Thu with snow levels below 5000 ft by
Thu. The trough pattern recognition warranted mention of
thunderstorm activity in the Valley and foothills Wed through Thu,
but the coverage and timeframe may change as the our vision
improves.    JClapp


&&

.AVIATION...

BKN high cloudiness continues over Norcal today and will limit
fog formation. Light winds and decent temperature inversions
still lead to local MVFR vis in BR in the southern Sacramento
Valley TAF sites and local IFR in FG in the northern San Joaquin
Valley this morning. JClapp
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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