Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 292158
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
258 PM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm weather expected this week as high pressure strengthens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly sunny across interior NorCal this afternoon with less deep
convection over the northern Sierra compared to 24 hours ago.
Temperatures are running a little warmer across most of the region
compared to 24 hours ago, but a Delta trickle is resulting in
slightly cooler readings at Fairfield and Vacaville.

The main weather story for the region the next several days will
be hot weather as the ridge over the eastern Pacific shifts over
NorCal. Warmest temperatures Memorial Day through Wednesday will
be around the century mark in the Central Valley as 850 mb temps
climb into the lower to mid 20s C and subsidence increases. Little
if any late day shower and thunderstorm activity is expected over
the northern Sierra south of Tahoe.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY)...
Models continue to show strong high pressure over the western
U.S. bringing above normal temperatures through the extended
period. Daytime highs will climb slowly to more than 15 degrees
above normal by Saturday. Models fairly consistent in positioning
an upper low off the Socal coast Friday and tracking northeast
onto central CA coast by Sunday. This will result in southeast
flow aloft with GFS and ECMWF painting some convective
precipitation over the Sierra Friday through Sunday afternoons. As
the negative tilt trough approaches the coast,
showers/thunderstorms could develop in the southern Sac and
northern San Joaquin Valley Sunday. JClapp

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions next 24 hours TAF sites. Isolated thunderstorms
possible afternoon and evening hours over the northern Sierra
crest with fairly light steering flow winds. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$


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