Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 211036
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
236 AM PST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
System will bring snow to the mountains later today into early
Friday, which could impact travelers. Below normal temperatures
will continue. Additional systems possible next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Warmer temperatures across much of the area this morning compared
to Tuesday morning. Northern Sacramento Valley right around the
freezing mark but clouds from incoming system have moved in and
will limit further temperature drops. Further south across the San
Joaquin Valley, temperatures still running in the mid to upper
30s. Therefore have cancelled remaining hard freeze warning though
frost still a possibility.

A few showers possible over the coastal range today as weak system
departs but not expecting much in the way in accumulation. Have
cut back on precipitation chances during the day today, especially
over the Sierra. Focus then shifts to a cold insider slider
system that will drop through the area this evening into early
Friday morning. This will bring another round of snow to the
mountains. With cold air still entrenched over the area, snow
levels will be around 1500-2000 feet with a dusting down to around
1000 feet. Pass levels will likely see 5-8 inches of snow,
heaviest overnight into the early Thursday morning commute with
another burst of snow likely around the Thursday afternoon
commute. Chain controls possible with some travel delays. Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect above 2000 feet. Still some
model discrepancies so cannot rule out a few light showers in the
valley, though pinpointing exactly where is a bit uncertain.
Friday night should be another cold one as system exits and skies
clear out with morning lows on Saturday near the freezing mark
once again.

Next shortwave will drop south in the flow on Saturday. Models in
decent agreement with majority of moisture remaining across the
Pacific Northwest. Therefore have confined shower chances to
northern mountains. Below normal temperatures continue.

CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)
Amplified upper air pattern forecast to continue next week with
the cold upper trough over the West forecast to slowly retrograde
as successive short-waves dropping down from the north carve it
further back to the west. The early-week systems will have QPF
mainly confined to the mountains, but more widespread
precipitation will be possible later in the week. Temperatures
will remain at or below average for late-February.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions next 24 hours except local MVFR vicinity isolated
-SHSN along the northern Sierra Nevada crest.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM PST
Friday for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Motherlode-
Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-West Slope Northern Sierra
Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

&&

$$


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