Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 271013

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
313 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Well above normal temperatures for the next several days. A
slight chance of afternoon or evening thunderstorms over the
Sierra crest Friday through next week.


Weak upper trough over norcal now shifting into the Great Basin
leaving fair skies across the CWA this morning. Upper ridge over
southwest U.S. will bring well above normal temperatures over the
next several days. Most locations will see only minor changes in
daytime temperatures today through Saturday. Small scale shortwave
troughs passing to the north into the Pacific Northwest will have
minimal impact on Norcal weather. Main noticeable impact will be
minor fluctuations in the delta breeze. While a slightly
increased delta breeze brings a little cooling in delta influenced
areas Friday and Saturday...areas outside this influence will
likely see very little change in daytime highs or possibly a
slight warming. Southwest flow aloft will keep any Sierra crest
thunderstorms east of the the crest today. A more southerly flow
aloft Friday and Saturday will bring enough moisture and
instability northward up the Sierra for a threat of afternoon or
evening crest thunderstorms. Upper ridge pushes back west on
Sunday bringing overall warmer temperatures. A reduced delta
breeze will allow for warmer temperatures in the Sacramento and
delta regions as well. Highs Sunday are currently forecast at
around 10 degrees above normal for late July. Models generally
agree on a southeast flow aloft by Sunday afternoon so Sierra
thunderstorms likely to make a push farther northward.


Strong upper high pressure forecast over the region next week with
triple digit heat continuing in the Central Valley. Highs forecast
to be around 10 degrees above average, but below record values.
Enough of a Delta trickle expected to keep more moderate
temperatures across the Sacramento region. Some moisture may be
drawn northward over the higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada
leading to isolated afternoon thunderstorms near the crest.


VFR conditions next 24 hours. Local southwesterly wind 10-20 kts
vicinity Delta.


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