Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 310910
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN ND.
COLDER AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SCALE TROF OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES REGION...AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. MOIST...UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS IS BRINGING A LARGE BAND OF STRATUS INTO THE AREA...WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS ARE
MOSTLY IN THE 30S OVER CLOUD COVERED AREAS...WITH SOME 20S WHERE
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.

THE GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER OF LATE WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NOVEMBER AS RIDGING PATTERN MOSTLY STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
AFTER A GLOOMY START THIS MORNING IN MANY AREAS...WITH SOME AREAS OF
FOG...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS
AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...FAR EASTERN MT...AND
NORTHEASTERN WY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MOST OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 45 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD
SUNSET...BUT REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN MANY AREAS. FOR
HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE 40S...WITH 30S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD.
SOME WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S.

UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS FOR
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TOWARD CENTRAL SD
TO THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
SD PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD...WITH GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WY SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THE
MAIN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND WILL
HEAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN AS A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
SWINGS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE THE SECONDARY LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DUE
TO THE SPLIT FLOW...THE MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE EXPECTED
PATH OF THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE LOCATED
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA....SO HAVE REMOVED THE LOW POPS
THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE FRONTAL ZONE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF SWRN AND SCNTRL SD ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10







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