Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 280851
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
251 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES LOW OVER ALBERTA..WITH WARM FRONT
THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHARP UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH STRONG PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE
ABOUT TO CRASH THROUGH THE RIDGE.

WILL BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE. 925-850MB TEMPERATURES. SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80 ON THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL- RISE COUPLET.
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH 8-12MB/3H PRESSURE RISES...900-800MB
WINDS OF 50-60KTS...AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALL POINT TO
HIGH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TSRA
WILL ALSO ENHANCE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WILL
UPGRADE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING.

WINDS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY ON THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. GFS BRINGS SOME WEAK ENERGY
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN DRIES IT OUT. EC AND GEM HAVE A
STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. WILL GO WITH A FAIRLY
DRY SOLUTION FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE DAY 6
AND 7 PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A
VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS
AND NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE NEAR
15 PERCENT WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ260>264.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ013-014-026-030>032-042>044-072>074.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ027-041.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MDT SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ001-002-012-025.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ259-297>299.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT FOR WYZ054>056-058.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MDT SUNDAY
     FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...7





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