Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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114
FXUS63 KUNR 110406
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
906 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

Main short wave tracking along US-Canadian border over eastern
MT with a small vorticity max crossing northwestern SD, which is
more potent than previous model runs. Band of snow associated with
vort east of the Black Hills is shifting slightly southward
toward I-90, with a slight upslope signature overn the northern
Black Hills. Even though the system is moving quickly, expect a
couple of inches of snow overnight. Surface low still over eastern
WY with cold air remaining over the western SD plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 217 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

Chances for snow will continue tonight as the wave pushes into
the Dakotas...especially in the evening hours. Snow accumulation
will be generally light...an inch or less...but wouldn`t be
surprised if a few locations over northwest SD received up to two
inches within a localized band. Temps will be not drop much more
than todays highs...or even slowly rise overnight as warmer air to
the south continues to work its way into the area. Drier weather
is expected Sunday on the backside of the departing wave as high
pressure builds in. Temps will be warmer tomorrow but still below
seasonal averages. Highs will be in the teens and 20s. Lows Sunday
night will drop back into the single digits to teens.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

Arctic front will move through the area Monday. Models have been
trending faster, with GFS now bringing front through Monday
morning. Falling temperatures and gusty winds expected behind the
front. May be some light snow/flurries across the northern
portions of the forecast area Monday morning. Temperatures will be
well below average expected through the middle of the week, with
small chances for light snow over southern portions of forecast
area. Still on track for stronger Pacific trof to affect the area
for the end of the week, bringing widespread snow on Friday. This
will be followed by a reinforcing shot of arctic air for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Evening
Issued At 848 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs will continue over wrn and cntrl SD
through the night, and cigs will lower over nern WY as winds
switch to the NW. Light snow will move across the area this
evening with some lower vsbys. Cigs wl improve Sunday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...55
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...55



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