Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000 FXUS65 KVEF 250939 AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 239 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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TODAY WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH WINDS INCREASING AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT 300 MILES OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, IT IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP, WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THROUGH WASHINGTON, OREGON, THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA AND WELL OUT INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BUT SADLY, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCE CLOUD COVER. ALSO THERE IS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST THIS MORNING MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AND IT HAS BEEN GENERATING SOME THIN CLOUD COVER THAT COULD BRING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TO PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY. WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON. AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST TODAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING AND BASED ON 00Z HIRES MODEL DATA, THERE IS NO NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO OTHER AREAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS PUSHING DOWN THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OWENS VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT AND DROP SATURDAYS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES SUNDAY AND THEN TO NORMAL OR BELOW ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED FLOW IN NORTH WIND PRONE AREAS LIKE THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS SHOW NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. STILL SEEING MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGINNING THURSDAY WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA LONGER. HOWEVER...NOT REALLY MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER EITHER WAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS VERIFIES WINDS ON FRIDAY COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES A TOUCH COOLER THAN FORECAST.
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&& .AVIATION...
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FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 8 KTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...STIFF WINDS UP TO 15 KTS CONTINUE IN THE OWENS VALLEY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 25-30 KTS ELSEWHERE. MECHANICAL TURBULENCE MAY DEVELOP NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
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&& .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
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SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED BUT STRONG WIND AND DAMAGE REPORTS WILL BE NEEDED FROM SPOTTERS TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& $$ SALMEN/HARRISON FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

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