Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000 FXUS65 KVEF 012218 AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 318 PM PDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN COOLER CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS NOW THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY OVER NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE UNSETTLED SPRING WEATHER SLATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON HAS SEEN A LULL IN THE WINDS BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS NOW APPROACHING THE REGION AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE...FIRST ACROSS THE SIERRA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THEN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING UPDATE THE WIND ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED TO COVER MOST OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AS WELL AS CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY OF INYO COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BLOWING DUST IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS AND WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN BY THURSDAY MORNING AND SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. WINDS THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15-30 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TOMORROW. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70`S FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. BY FRIDAY ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A BIT WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SHIFT IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING UP SEVERAL DEGREES WHICH WILL PUT HIGH TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PICK UP BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FAVORED SPOTS GUSTING TO OVER 25 MPH. A LARGER SCALE PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO HOP ON IN FOR EASTER AND LAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE DOMINANT RIDGE PATTERN FLIPS TO ONE FAVORING TROUGHS MOVING BACK ON TROUGH. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HEADS TOWARD THE COAST ON EASTER AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND DEPART ON TUESDAY. THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND THUS DIGGING NATURE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS ONLY SHOWS AN 80 KT+ JET AT 250 MB, A FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF THE WINDFIELDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. 700 MB WINDS OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH AROUND 30-40 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT, SO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF CLARK COUNTY AND THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY DESERT. IN ADDITION, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WHICH COULD ALSO IMPACT THE OWENS VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ELSEWHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. MODELS SHOW A SPREAD IN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND FOR NOW I WENT BETWEEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND COOLER GFS. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE JET STREAK SHIFTS EAST. TEMPS SHOULD LOWER A FEW MORE DEGREES ON MONDAY AND REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO TUESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. RIDGING SHOULD START TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A SMALL BUMP UP IN TEMPS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH POTENTIALLY CROSSING THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE TO BRING RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA INTO THE OWENS VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MID AND UPPER SLOPES ABOVE 5000 FEET. GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE OWENS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY AND GUSTY WEATHER LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME GUSTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MECHANICAL TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTERN LAS VEGAS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN SWITCH WINDS TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-18 KTS THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 20`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