Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000 FXUS65 KVEF 221606 AAA AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 905 AM PDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the region today and remain in place through much of the upcoming week. Temperatures will climb well above normal by Monday and Tuesday and remain warm and dry through the end of next week. && .UPDATE...
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Quiet weather area wide with just a few breezes down the Colorado River this morning near Laughlin/Bullhead City. With high pressure building aloft look for warming temperatures and dry conditions to continue. No updates planned.
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&& PREV DISCUSSION 215 AM PDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .Short Term...through Wednesday Night. Mostly clear skies with seasonable temperatures are expected today with breezy north winds (though lighter than yesterday) expected once again down the Colorado River. Starting Monday, strong high pressure will build over California and Nevada resulting in warming temperatures and a strengthening pressure gradient over the region. This will lead to another round of gusty north winds down the Colorado River, and allow for regional temps to climb well above normal Monday and Tuesday. Boosted temperatures upward a few degrees, but remained a bit conservative compared to the very warm GFS based guidance which suggests mid 90s (near record highs) in Las Vegas and triple digits down the Colorado River. High pressure begins to weaken slightly Wednesday, which should result in some modest cooling, but temperatures will remain well above normal. .Long Term...Thursday through Saturday. One final bump in the road Thursday and Friday before high amplitude ridging takes hold over the weekend. The "bump" refers to a system diving south through the southern Great Basin or Intermountain Region...depending on the model chosen. The ECMWF remains the sharpest, most westward solution of the trough and associated cold front while the GFS is weaker and the CMC is well east of the area. While all solutions would likely be dry for us, the ECMWF would feature windier and much cooler conditions. Forecast temperatures are more reflective of the GFS and it`s associated MOS guidance numbers for the long term period which maintains above normal temperatures. Adjustments can be made if future model runs warrant changes. Regarding winds, upper level support and deep layer unidirectional northerly flow point to stronger winds aloft mixing to the surface Thursday afternoon and lingering into Friday before support collapses as the system moves east by Saturday. Model spread remains sufficiently large overall with trough sharpness and strength of northern push to continue using caution in determining wind speeds, the possible issuance of any wind hazard products and discussing impacts. For what its worth, the GFS and CMC are very similar to the previous 00Z model runs while the ECMWF has trended towards the GFS somewhat. && .FIRE WEATHER...Generally light winds are expected today as high pressure builds over the region. Gusty north winds will return Monday and Tuesday through and conditions will remain dry with minimum humidity values dropping into the single digits and teens. Fire danger will remain elevated through midweek, possibly approaching localized Red Flag Conditions in the Colorado River Valley at times. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...Light winds favoring diurnal trends expected today, with speeds below 9 knots expected. Winds may be light and variable at times. A push of north winds is expected Monday with speeds in the 9-12 range, and some gusts up to 20 knots. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Light winds expected across the region favoring diurnal trends. Gusty north winds expected near KIFP and KEED, with occasional gusts to 25 knots possible. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ Update...Gorelow Short Term/Fire Weather/Aviation...Outler Long Term...Salmen For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

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