Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000 FXUS65 KVEF 261006 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 306 AM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Hot weather will continue into early next week under a ridge of high pressure. A trough of low pressure passing by to the south will bring the first influx of monsoon moisture next week, with slight chances for thunderstorms beginning in Mohave County Monday and spreading over much of the region by Wednesday and Thursday. This will also bring slightly cooler and more humid conditions. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night. Not much has changed forecast wise with increasing temperatures expected today and Monday. Not a great deal of warming aloft is forecast through Tuesday with a couple degree rise in the 850-700mb layer. Surface temperatures are expected to warm a couple of degrees today compared to yesterday and maybe another degree or two on Monday with only slightly cooler numbers Tuesday. This will leave us 3-5 degrees shy of records in Las Vegas but some isolated locations could approach records Monday. However, we will still need to watch trends closely as the high member of the ECK MOS continues to forecast 114 degrees on Monday in Las Vegas. This has been the case since it was first noted last Tuesday. My feeling is the pattern does not support such numbers. Conditions today will remain dry area wide with little to no cloud cover expected. Winds will be a little breezy across the far southern and western portions of the CWA with light and variable winds elsewhere. Model forecasted moisture parameters increase south of the area with the one inch precipitable water line tickling the southern CWA border later today as an inverted trough works its way westward across southern Arizona. Looking ahead to Monday, the moisture makes some progress northward as the trough continues westward with the one inch PWAT line reaching near Needles CA. Some better instability is forecast in portions of Mohave and southern San Bernardino counties Monday and with convection inching ever so much closer, will need to watch for outflow and the potential for thunderstorms reaching into these areas. The trough is forecast to lift north through California Tuesday with moisture and instability increasing across the southern areas of the CWA and in the Sierra where a better chance of thunderstorms is forecast. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday Easterly flow between an inverted trough and high pressure slated to usher in first dose of Monsoon moisture by Wednesday. Subtle differences between consecutive model runs will have bearing on the eventual outcome but overall only minor adjustments made to existing package. Primary difference noted between the latest GFS and ECMWF from 24 hours is that the ECMWF lags in the influx of low level moisture, thus greater instability west of the Colorado River until Friday/Saturday. GFS was consistent showing the monsoon moisture generally across eastern San Bernardino, Clark, Lincoln and Mohave Counties Wednesday-Saturday. Latest guidance came in warmer for Wednesday and Thursday with slight drop off by late week. Overall, values will continue running above normal. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...South to southwest to continue overnight. Smoke from fires in nearby states will reduce slant range visibility, but probably not surface visibility. This pattern should continue through Monday, with thunderstorm chances arriving to the local mountains Tuesday. For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast California...Smoke from fires will remain aloft in most areas, reducing slant range visibility but probably not surface visibility except in high terrain. Expect typical diurnal winds in most areas with no significant clouds or weather today. Thunderstorm chances will begin in Mohave County and possibly far southern San Bernardino county Monday and spread to much of the region by Wednesday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather according to standard operating procedures. && $$ Short term/Aviation...Salmen Long term...Pierce For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

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