Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000 FXUS65 KVEF 250343 AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 845 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY AND BECOME QUITE STRONG ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. && .UPDATE...
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MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND THE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY AND NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY. WINDS THIS EVENING HAVE COME DOWN SOMEWHAT NEAR DAGGETT AND BICYCLE LAKE WHERE GUSTS IN THE PAST HOUR HAVE BEEN BELOW 40 MPH FOR BOTH LOCATIONS WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITIES. I EXPECT THIS LULL TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY BEFORE REALLY PICKING UP AGAIN BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THIS AREA LOOKS GOOD. FURTHER WEST...NICE ARCING CLOUD BAND EXTENDS FROM LINCOLN COUNTY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WITH OGRANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EVIDENT ON RADAR FROM SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY. I DO BELIEVE THIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS BUT YOU WONT HAVE TO GO FAR TO OBSERVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH REASONABLY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS FROM MOAPA AND MESQUITE NORTHWARDS INTO LINCOLN COUNTY. IVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED RAINFALL TRENDS AND ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. -OUTLER- .SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND EASTERN CLARK COUNTIES. DRIER AND A BIT MORE STABLE AIR WAS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN. ALONG WITH THIS DRIER AIR ARE STRONG WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN BLOWING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PLACES THAT HAVE GUSTED OVER 50 MPH WITH BICYCLE LAKE JUST REACHING 58 MPH WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LULL A BIT OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY. CURRENTLY WE HAVE WIND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OVERNIGHT AS WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 60 MPH SATURDAY. WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT TRACKS SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOHAVE CLARK COUNTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...SOUTHERN CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT FAIRLY QUICKLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY SUNDAY MORNING LEAVING GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER AND ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH READINGS DOWN ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...MONDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT NORTHERLY WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL PERSIST FOR ONE MORE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS THE LOW 80S IN LAS VEGAS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD BOTH DAYS...CLIMBING ON AVERAGE 10 DEGREES BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TIMING...BUT THE GFS...GEFS AND ECMWF HAVE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE WITH THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE WINDS WITH MOISTURE BEING LIMITED AND WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA.
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&& .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 10-15 KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEY BETWEEN 22Z-04Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 8K FEET BUT MAY LOWER TO AROUND 6K FEET NEAR ANY SHOWERS. .FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE GUST TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CIGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 5-6K FEET AT TIMES NEAR ANY RAINFALL. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW LONG TERM...CZYZYK FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

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