Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000 FXUS65 KVEF 300300 AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. && .UPDATE...
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UPDATED THE SKY COVER TONIGHT TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR EXPANDING CIRRUS DECK EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 15. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED. -OUTLER-
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&& .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SUFFICIENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WAS STILL HOLDING AHEAD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOWED CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...BUT A MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE ENERGY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND ANOTHER DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT DEEPENING THE TROUGH AND SPREADING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL KILL THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION FOR MOST OF MOHAVE COUNTY EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NORTHEAST CORNER NEAR COLORADO CITY AND PIPE SPRING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL USHER IN 3-5 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WHILE A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO BE PULLED INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA LATE NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO A WEAK CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS A BROAD OPEN TROUGH WITH DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...JUST A COUPLE SHOWERS EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EVIDENT YET. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS EAST OF A LINE FROM KELY TO KNXP AND 5-10KTS STRONGER TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE. STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA COULD CREATE AREAS IF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE EAST OF THE CREST. WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY. CHANCES FOR TS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...ADAIR AVIATION...WOLCOTT FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

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