Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000 FXUS65 KVEF 102241 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV Issued by National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 241 PM PST Sat Dec 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild weather is expected over most of the area through the middle of next week with considerable high cloudiness at times. Showers will develop over the Sierra and far northern Lincoln County today and tonight with mainly light snow accumulations expected. Cooler and unsettled weather will be possible late next week. && .SHORT TERM...Through Monday Night...For today, a moist Pacific flow extending the length of California will primarily impact the coast, coastal mountains and points east to the western Sierra slopes as the deeper PWAT airmass moves north to south through California. A few showers have developed over the Sierra crest with some spill over onto the higher elevations of the eastern side. Snow levels will remain above 9000 feet today lowering to around 8000 feet Sunday morning. 4-7 inches of snow are possible along the crest through tonight with 2-4 inches possible around the Aspendell and South Lake area. The increased moisture across the Sierra should limit any downslope potential and keep the stronger winds near ridgetop. Windy conditions have developed across the western Mojave Desert this afternoon and will continue through tonight but continues to look marginal for wind advisory level winds. Gusts should generally be 30-40 mph with localized gusts over 40 mph already this afternoon in the Daggett area. Northwest to west flow aloft is forecast over the area Sunday and Monday for dry conditions, lighter winds and periods of mid and high clouds. Temperatures through Monday will be unseasonably warm running about 8-10 degrees above normal. .LONG TERM...The medium range models are indicating the potential for a significant change in the weather pattern Thursday through Saturday, confidence is low in the details due to model differences, though it has increased a bit today. A zonal flow with a weak mean ridge is forecast to be over our region Tuesday and Wednesday which will keep us largely dry with continued relatively mild temperatures. Substantial subtropical moisture is forecast to stream into northern California and northern Nevada and there is a chance precipitation could make over to the east slopes of the southern Sierra but it would be intercepted mostly by the western slopes. The main change begins Thursday as a trough slides down over over California and Nevada and pushes the moisture plume to the southeast across our region. Models are more bullish now on precipitation chances... especially Thursday night and precip chances were raised with the afternoon package. This is followed by a much colder trough dropping down from Canada over the Great Basin late Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...Varying amounts of high clouds are expected through Sunday. Light and variable winds will continue through the day possibly favoring and easterly direction this afternoon before transitioning to southwest up to 10 kts this evening. For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast California...West winds 20-30 kts are possible across western San Bernardino County with generally 10-20 kts elsewhere. Some enhanced downslope winds will also be possible through tonight across the eastern Sierra slopes where gusts to 50 mph will be possible. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JJ / Salmen LONG TERM...JJ / Adair For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

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