Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000 FXUS65 KVEF 311645 AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 945 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE WARM DAY TODAY BEFORE A COLD PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THIS EVENING AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .UPDATE...
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HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS GOOD SO NO UPDATES THIS MORNING.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/ISSUED 222 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014/ .SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...JUST A FEW REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. TODAY MAY BE THE LAST 80+ DEGREE DAY WE SEE FOR A WHILE IN LAS VEGAS AS A COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WILL BRING INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP FROM OVER 9000 FEET TO BETWEEN 6500 AND 7000 FEET BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SATURDAY IN THE SIERRA OF INYO COUNTY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH PRODUCES A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED DYNAMICS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE STILL LOOKS GOOD. AS THIS SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST IT WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS LAS VEGAS [MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING]. A WEAK PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE DRAWN UP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF MOHAVE... LINCOLN AND NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT IN THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WHICH HAS SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS PRODUCED BY THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL APPEAR TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND PRODUCTS FOR THE MOMENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUNDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY ISOLATED. IN THE MOUNTAINS THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSTABLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS...AND A LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WHERE GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE LIMITED TO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT BY MID WEEK RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
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&& .AVIATION...
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FOR MCCARRAN... FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...FOR MCCARRAN...AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FAVORING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATED A BRIEF [APPROXIMATELY 1 HOUR] PERIOD OF ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEFORE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUNSET. SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY AOA 15K FEET THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUD BASES MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10K FEET. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SHRA WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF EVEN LOWER CIGS...MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUD BASES .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION: WOLCOTT LONG TERM: CZYZYK UPDATE: BERC FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

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