Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000 FXUS65 KVEF 232156 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 256 PM PDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Area of light showers across southeastern Nevada and northwestern Arizona will dissipate this evening as a storm system exits the area to the east. Dry conditions are expected tonight and Friday before the next system approaches the region Friday night into Saturday ushering in the next chances for rain and snow showers and periods of gusty winds. Unsettled weather is expected through the the first half of next week.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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through Saturday night. The area of light showers that is currently affecting Clark, Mohave, and eastern Lincoln counties is expected push southeastward out of the local area this evening as trough progresses towards the Midwest. Isolated thunder will be possible this afternoon across northeast Mohave county where the best available moisture and some limited instability are in place. Ridging will briefly build over the area tonight and Friday ahead of the next approaching Pacific system that is expected to pass through this weekend. Next chance for precipitation will move in ahead of this feature along the Sierra on Friday afternoon before scattered showers begin affecting the southern Great Basin and San Bernardino county overnight Friday into early Saturday. Gusty, southwesterly winds will begin Friday afternoon with widespread gusts of 25-30 mph possible across the lower elevations. Precip chances increase area wide through late Saturday morning as trough passes through the region as an open wave. Highest rainfall totals will be across the southern Great Basin with 0.25 inches or less expected. Snows levels should remain at 8000` or above with no significant accumulations expected through the weekend. Temperatures remain around seasonal norms through early next week. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday. Models are slowly starting to converge toward a common solution, but confidence remains below average until this trend persists for another run or two. Our area will briefly be under dirty shortwave ridging on Sunday before the next storm system reaches the West Coast, spreading precip chances over much of the region (especially north of Las Vegas) on Monday. There is still model spread on how quickly to move the storm away, with the ECMWF still in the faster camp and the GFS still in the slower camp. The ECMWF has begun to trend a bit closer to the GFS in this run, but as noted above, would like to see this trend persist before jumping on it. Precip chances may linger in the eastern zones on Tuesday if the slower camp verifies. Gusty north winds look like a decent bet Monday night and Tuesday, and possibly through Wednesday if the slower camp verifies. Temperatures will stay somewhere near normal for late March, with well below normal temps possible in areas which get rain and/or opaque clouds much of the day Monday and/or Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION...
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For McCarran...Gusty, northwesterly winds are expected to continue through this afternoon before shifting more westerly this evening and coming down around 8 knots or less overnight. Light shower activity will pass to the northeast of the terminal through this evening and should remain isolated enough that the terminal will remain dry. Winds Friday morning remain light and variable before prevailing south southeasterly flow initiates during the afternoon, shifting to the south southwest and becoming gusty Friday night. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Gusty, northwesterly winds will continue through this evening. Scattered, light shower activity will be possible across eastern Lincoln, southern Clark, and Mohave counties through this evening with an isolated thunderstorm possible across northern Mohave county. Winds should diminishing tonight and become light and variable by Friday morning. Winds are expected to shift to the south/southwest and become gusty Friday evening ahead of next approaching system.
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&& .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ Long Term...Morgan Short Term/Aviation...Guillet For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

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