Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000 FXUS65 KVEF 171625 AAB AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 925 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .UPDATE...
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UPPER LOW APPROXIMATELY 500 MILES WSW OF SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP TO 4 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS PARTS OF LAS VEGAS SO LOW 90S WELL WITHIN REACH ESPECIALLY ONCE SOUTHERLY WINDS MIX OUT. FORECAST IS FINE. .PREV UPDATE... 551 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014 .UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO THE MORNING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
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&& PREV DISCUSSION... 325 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING THE COAST JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS CLEARLY SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH MOVING INTO THE WA/OR REGION AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH BETTER MIXING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO JUMP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PUT THEM SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW AND THEN MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM INYO COUNTY THROUGH ESMERALDA INTO LINCOLN COUNTIES. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR STORMS AND ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL AGAIN OCCUR OVER MUCH OF REGION ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AROUND 5-8 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS CLOSE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIDGING BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...QUIET, PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EASTER SUNDAY AS THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM BECOMES A MEMORY AND IS REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER ON MONDAY. MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WITH MODELS GENERALLY FORECASTING WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH BECOMING PRETTY COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED TREMENDOUSLY FROM A MERE 24 HOURS AGO REGARDING AN INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPING A STRONG COLD LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NOW AGREES WITH THE ECMWF/GEM IN BRINGING A VIGOROUS LEADING SHORTWAVE THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN MOVING IT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AREA WIDE TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS GUSTS. WIND HAZARD PRODUCTS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT DAY ONCE WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND PROVIDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. THIS COULD BRING MORE STRONG WINDS TO THE MOJAVE DESERT WEDNESDAY. ALSO QUITE NOTABLE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A OVERALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES SEEMS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD DROP US BACK BELOW NORMAL. REGARDING SHOWER ACTIVITY, MODELS ALL FORECAST LIMITED MOISTURE REACHING THIS FAR SOUTH AND ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER AREAS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. THE MAIN BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE PROSPECT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS GREATER THERE. && .AVIATION...
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FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AFTER 22Z AND TURNING SOUTH WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 8-10 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN TURNING SOUTH AROUND 10-20 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MOST AREAS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
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&& .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...NONE. AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ GORELOW/SALMEN FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

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