Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000 FXUS65 KVEF 030247 AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 747 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY EDGE BACK INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOHAVE COUNTY. && .UPDATE...QUIET WEATHER THIS EVENING ASIDE FROM LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 255 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TAPPING A BIT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PULLING IT UP INTO WESTERN ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW THEY ARE LIMITING THIS MOISTURE AND ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY TO EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY. I INCREASED POPS THERE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. SOME AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING. GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE IS STILL AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER OVER THE PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LEADS TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. I DID END UP EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FURTHER WEST FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GIVEN THE ECMWF`S PERSISTENCE...BUT MAINLY LIMITED THE MENTIONABLE POPS TO MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTIES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT ANY DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST AS DRIER FLOW TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION. LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE. .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING TO ABOUT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER 03Z. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER 10 KTS...THEN SOUTH 10-15 KTS AFTER 20Z WEDNESDAY. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. LIGHTER DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && $$ UPDATE...MORGAN SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON LONG TERM...WOLCOTT FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

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