Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000 FXUS65 KVEF 211657 AAA AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 958 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. && .UPDATE...LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY LINCOLN...CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. TWEAKED THE WIND/WIND GUSTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 230 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SHORTWAVE CURRENT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELKO`S FORECAST AREA. OUTSIDE OF A BAND OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING THROUGH MOHAVE COUNTY THIS MORNING SKIES ACROSS OUR CWA ARE GENERALLY CLEAR. WE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...BUT THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT BASICALLY WASHES OUT BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEVADA. SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OTHER AREAS WILL MAINLY SEE WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. WE WILL SEE SOME COOLING TODAY WITH READINGS DOWN ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AND ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO WARM AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE IN CONTROL FRIDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH FRIDAY...THEN AREA-WIDE SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST FOLLOWS AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE. SO...A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. FOR THOSE EAGERLY AWAITING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOTHER NATURE HAS GRANTED YOUR WISH. ON AVERAGE...THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...TAKING US CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL ALSO SEE NORTH-NORTHWEST BREEZES SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SOME BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS FOR MUCH OF TODAY THEN DECREASING THIS EVENING. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-18KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20KFT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. && $$ UPDATE...PIERCE SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW LONG TERM...PADDOCK FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

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