Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000 FXUS65 KVEF 270913 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 213 AM PDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Temperatures over the holiday weekend will edge closer to normal for late May with a threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms primarily over the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert. Elsewhere, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected. Above normal temperatures will develop by the middle of next week with the first bout of widespread triple digit heat across the Mojave Desert.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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Today through Sunday. Weak troughing will be over the area through the holiday weekend with scattered clouds and a slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily over the higher terrain in northern Inyo and south central Nevada. It looks like convection will be limited today with troughing just beginning to form along the coast and model stability progs showing only marginally unstable LIs and low end CAPE values over the Sierra. Better potential exists for the higher terrain of the far western CWA including the Sierra on Saturday with low pressure over central California. The general wind flow will become favorable and combine with daytime heating to provide enough lift to generate a few showers/storms mainly over the Sierra in the afternoon. Low pressure is forecast over the southern CWA Sunday with scattered clouds around much of the area but the better instability is still limited to the Sierra and south central Nevada mountains. However, there may be a few mountain showers/storms over the higher terrain of Clark, San Bernardino and Mohave county as well. Overall, winds will be on the light side through the weekend unless associated with showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will inch up close to seasonal normals over the weekend but the lower heights provided by the trough will keep them from becoming any warmer. The heat will hold off until the upcoming week and is discussed in the long term section. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday. There remains a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms across mainly the higher terrain of northern Inyo, Esmeralda, central Nye, and Lincoln counties to round out the holiday weekend. Then the focus will shift to a pattern change that will swiftly bring dry conditions and much warmer temperatures. Strong high pressure will work into the western CONUS next week. Temperatures are expected to be near normal Monday, but then quickly warm to roughly 5-10 degrees above normal Wednesday through Friday. The heat might even linger.
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&& .AVIATION...
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For McCarran...No significant weather expected with VFR conditions and light winds following typical diurnal trends. A very small chance of showers on the mountains today but will likely stay clear of the terminal. For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast California...No significant weather expected with light winds following typical diurnal trends for most terminals through the period. The exception could be KBIH late this afternoon into the early evening when thunderstorm outflow moves in from the north and could produce a storm near the terminal along with gusty north winds. Otherwise, shower chances will be limited to the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin and Sierra Nevada with perhaps another chance of breezy west winds at KDAG during the afternoon and evening.
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&& .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather according to standard operating procedures. && $$ Short Term/Aviation...Salmen Long Term...Paddock For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

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