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427
FXUS65 KVEF 131127
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
427 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated showers may develop today in the terrain of Clark and
  Mohave counties. If this occurs, sudden gusty winds would be
  possible

* Smoke from nearby fires will result in hazy skies at times through
  at least Sunday, but significant or widespread smoke impacts near
  the surface are not expected.

* Above normal temperatures will continue through the beginning of
  the week and heat headlines have been issued for Monday.

* Monsoon moisture makes a possible return mid to late next week
  along with a drop in temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday.

Moisture has increased slightly since yesterday with PWATs +0.5
inches south of the I-15. In general, this moisture shouldn`t do
much, however latest runs of the HRRR indicates that isolated
showers could develop in the terrain of Clark and Mohave counties
this afternoon. Given the marginal moisture, this is possible, but
could be a struggle as little to no instability will develop at
the surface this afternoon. If showers did occur, minimal rain
would reach the surface given the dry low levels noted on forecast
soundings. However, with increasing DCAPE and evaporative
cooling, sudden gusty winds would be possible.

Hazy skies are expected at times over the next few days as various
fires burn across the region combined with generally light winds
aloft. Most of the smoke over Las Vegas and northern Mohave County
is originating from the Dragon Bravo Fire, a 1500 acre fire near the
north rim of the Grand Canyon, as well as the White Sage Fire, a 20
thousand acre fire southeast of Fredonia, Arizona. According to the
HRRR Smoke model, smoke these fires as well as the Gothic Fire in
central Nye County will overspread much of the region today,
spreading further south and west than previous days. Most of the
smoke should remain aloft though and with minimal reductions in
visibility at the surface.

Above normal temperatures will persist as high pressure continues to
build over the region through Monday. Surface high temperatures will
climb 6-8 degrees above normal Sunday and Monday, the hottest days
of next week. Most areas will be under Moderate (Level 2 of 4)
HeatRisk today with pockets of Major (Level 3 of 4) around the
Mojave Desert. By Monday, the pockets of Level 3 expand in coverage
to include large swaths including the Las Vegas Valley, Amargosa
Valley, Pahrump, Death Valley, and Valley of Fire. This level
affects anyone without effective cooling or adequate hydration and
may impact heat sensitive industries and infrastructure. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect for Esmeralda, Lincoln, and central Nye
counties, and an Extreme Heat Warning for Death Valley and the
remainder of southern Nevada on Monday.

The ridge will slowly retreat and weaken after Monday. Temperatures
will cool off each day in response starting Tuesday as heights aloft
fall. Moisture should also start to increase with this pattern.
While it will not result in any precipitation right away, it will
help cool temperatures and reduce any fire danger. High temperatures
will be close to normal by Wednesday and expected to remain near
normal through the rest of the week. Precipitation chances start to
sneak into northwestern Arizona by Wednesday, increasing in coverage
and spreading west Thursday through Saturday as a shortwave over the
Baja Peninsula interacted with increased moisture that pushes in
after Thursday. With uncertainty in how much moisture moves into
the region the second half of the week, low confidence in possible
impacts and chances for precipitation later this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
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For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...There
are two main concerns for this period. One is southeast wind in the
afternoon, which could spike up around 10 knots on occasion. The
second is the small, but not zero, chance of a microburst. Mid level
clouds based around 12-15K feet were already in the Mormon Mesa
corridor early this morning and moving west. As these clouds
move/expand west and south during the day, there is a chance they
could produce one or more microbursts/"virga bombs." If this occurs,
it is more likely to happen in the Mormon Mesa or Peach Springs
corridor, possibly pushing easterly outflow winds toward the
terminal. It is less likely for one to occur near the terminal, but
if it does, very strong and sudden erratic winds would result.
Wildfire smoke aloft is expected to persist through most or all of
the TAF period. Temperatures to exceed 100F between 18z and 05z,
with a peak around 110F.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...The main
concern for this period is a risk of microbursts/"virga bombs". If
this occurs, it is more likely to happen in Mohave County, although
Clark and eastern San Bernardino have non-zero chances as well. Any
microburst would produce very strong and sudden erratic winds.
Otherwise, wind gusts of 20 knots or less can be expected. Wildfire
smoke aloft is expected to persist through most or all of the TAF
period.
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&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Morgan

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