Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000 FXUS65 KVEF 141756 AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 956 AM PST SUN FEB 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. && .UPDATE... WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF A 150+ KT 250-MB ANTICYCLONIC JET. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE JET IS GENERATING ENOUGH ASCENT TO PRODUCE SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN MUCH OF CENTRAL NV AND ADJACENT UT THIS MORNING. THESE WILL BE MIGRATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, PARTICULARLY IN NV AND AZ. BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS A TAD THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ACCOMMODATE FOR THIS. AT THIS POINT, DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW YESTERDAY`S VALUES, SO DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST. NORTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WITH BULLHEAD CITY ALREADY GUSTING TO 25 MPH FOR THE PAST HOUR AND COTTONWOOD COVE REPORTING WINDS TO 20 MPH. UPDATED WIND GRIDS BASED ON MOST RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE, WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT OBS. STILL EXPECTING STRONGEST WINDS ON MONDAY, SO DID NOT CHANGE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 200 AM PST SUN FEB 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH REGARDS TO WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10-15 MPH. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH GUST TO AROUND 30-35 MPH. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE AND BRING AN INCREASE TO WINDS DOWN THE RIVER. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO 40 MPH. ALTHOUGH ITS MARGINAL FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED ONE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED BOATING ACTIVITY FOR THE HOLIDAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL RUN FROM 4AM MONDAY THROUGH 6PM MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO LIGHTER WINDS ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODELS ARE STILL WAFFLING A LITTLE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND AND HOW MUCH OF A MOISTURE TAP WILL FEED INTO IT. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL BE A QUICK HITTER...WITH PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. EITHER WAY...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON DRY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS LIKELY TO RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN SOME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE ONGOING STREAK OF 70 DEGREE HIGHS AT KLAS MAY STAY INTACT. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING THEN AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS AFTER 19Z. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 7-10KTS THROUGH 21Z...BUT INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AROUND 7-9KTS OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OTHER AREAS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15KTS. HIGHER WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && $$ UPDATE...SHAFER SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW LONG TERM...MORGAN FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

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