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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KVEF 171625 AAB
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
925 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BREEZY
CONDITIONS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPPER LOW APPROXIMATELY 500 MILES WSW OF SAN DIEGO THIS
MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP TO 4 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS PARTS OF LAS
VEGAS SO LOW 90S WELL WITHIN REACH ESPECIALLY ONCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
MIX OUT. FORECAST IS FINE.

.PREV UPDATE...
551 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO THE MORNING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

PREV DISCUSSION...
325 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACHING THE COAST JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS CLEARLY SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH MOVING INTO THE WA/OR REGION AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TODAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH BETTER MIXING EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO JUMP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PUT THEM SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.
EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW AND THEN MOVE DIRECTLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM INYO COUNTY THROUGH ESMERALDA
INTO LINCOLN COUNTIES. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH BASED AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BE AN ISSUE NEAR STORMS AND
ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL AGAIN
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF REGION ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AROUND 5-8
DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS CLOSE
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH RIDGING BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...QUIET, PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EASTER SUNDAY
AS THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM BECOMES A MEMORY AND IS REPLACED BY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER ON
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WITH MODELS GENERALLY FORECASTING WIND
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH BECOMING PRETTY COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED TREMENDOUSLY FROM A MERE 24 HOURS AGO
REGARDING AN INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON
DEVELOPING A STRONG COLD LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NOW
AGREES WITH THE ECMWF/GEM IN BRINGING A VIGOROUS LEADING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN MOVING IT ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AREA WIDE
TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS GUSTS. WIND HAZARD
PRODUCTS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT DAY ONCE WE
GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND PROVIDED MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. THIS COULD BRING MORE
STRONG WINDS TO THE MOJAVE DESERT WEDNESDAY. ALSO QUITE NOTABLE WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF COOLING EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A OVERALL DROP
IN TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES SEEMS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD DROP US BACK BELOW NORMAL. REGARDING SHOWER ACTIVITY,
MODELS ALL FORECAST LIMITED MOISTURE REACHING THIS FAR SOUTH AND
ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER AREAS NORTH OF
LAS VEGAS. THE MAIN BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE PROSPECT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS GREATER THERE.
&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AFTER 22Z AND TURNING
SOUTH WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND
8-10 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN TURNING
SOUTH AROUND 10-20 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MOST AREAS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND
10 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

GORELOW/SALMEN

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