Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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120 FXUS63 KABR 121126 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 626 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northerly winds could bring elevated smoke from wildfires in Canada across the area today. - Precipitation chances return to the area Tuesday through Wednesday evening (30-70% chance). && .UPDATE... Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 See updated aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 A cold front will slide across the region today, bringing northerly winds and slightly cooler, but still above average temperatures. High temperatures today should warm into the mid 70s, to the lower 80s. However, elevated smoke from wildfires in northwest Canada may limit heating some today. The HRRR vertically integrated smoke shows smoke crossing southward across the CWA today. The frontal boundary may become the focal point for isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and south of I-90. A shortwave embedded within northwest flow aloft may push into the western Dakotas later this afternoon, bringing a low, 20 pop or less, chance of showers. Some CAMS have trended drier with this feature and suggests no pcpn for this CWA. A backdoor cold front will move into the northeast corner of the CWA later tonight and into the morning hours on Monday. The area as a whole will see cooler temperatures on Monday, with highs in the mid 60s, to the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Weak upper level ridging will be over the area Monday night and Tuesday. By the end of the day Tuesday, an elongated trough will extend from south central Canada to southern California. Will see a leading shortwave track across South Dakota Tuesday night, before the main trough slides across the area Wednesday night and Thursday. A slight northwest flow sets up Thursday night and Friday, then a more zonal flow develops on Saturday ahead of another approaching shortwave trough. At the surface, high pressure will be the dominant feature Monday night, then a low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will slowly track across the CWA Tuesday afternoon through the day Wednesday. The front looks to be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development. The best potential for some stronger thunderstorms looks to be across central South Dakota Tuesday afternoon when 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE and 40 to 50 knots of bulk shear develop. Weak high pressure settles in behind the exiting front Wednesday night. Another low pressure system then approaches, with its associated frontal boundary tracking across the CWA during the day Friday. There will be some shear along the front, but instability looks pretty minimal, so severe weather chances appear low. High pressure moves in Friday night and remains over the area through the day Saturday. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday, in the mid 60s to lower 70s Wednesday, in the lower to mid 70s Thursday, in the mid to upper 70s Friday, and in the upper 60s to lower 70s Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to the lower 50s through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight. Elevated smoke from wildfires in Canada may drift over the area today. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...Parkin AVIATION...Parkin