Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 020235 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
935 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE RFW A LITTLE EARLY AS RH HAS RECOVERED TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AND WINDS IN AREAS WITH THE LOWEST RH HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY AS NO SITES ARE CURRENTLY REACHING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS CHIEF CONCERN. SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING AT
TIME...THANKFULLY WE ARE AT PEAK PRESSURE RISES/PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SO ANTICIPATE WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH SETTING SUN.
THE GRADIENT WONT GET MUCH STRONGER FOR THURSDAY...HOWEVER
WESTERLY FLOW...WEAK COLD ADVECTION...AND SUN WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT MIXING...POTENTIALLY UP TO 700MB. MIXED DOWN WINDS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW END OF 30G40KTS...SO THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE. FRIDAY AM WILL BE THE COOLEST
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES -5 TO -9C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AS THE REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE
LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE
EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP JUST LOW ENOUGH BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW FOR
A TIME...BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST THEN AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE
THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ267>273.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE






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