Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 251420 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1020 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the region through the next several days, providing dry conditions and continued above normal temperatures. High temperatures could approach or even break record levels through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1015 AM EDT, A beautiful start to this Monday as fog has lifted leaving behind a sunny yet mild start. 12Z sounding suggests some instability when sfc parcels are modified with expected high temperatures close to 90F in the valley locations and mainly 80s elsewhere. Hires runs of the NAM3km-HRRR continue to suggest the instability mentioned above could touch off a shower or two across the southern Greens, Berks and NW hills of CT. This is likely due to a light easterly gradient flow off the Atlantic and dewpoints close to 70F with elevated heat source aiding in terrain based convective potential and perhaps parcels sneaking just past the cap seen just above H600. Otherwise, seems like another potential record breaking day in the temperatures this afternoon...see climate section below. Prev Disc... With an increase in low level moisture and dew points in the 50s/60s area-wide, some patchy fog has developed early this morning. The denser fog is evident in the GOES-16 fog channel across the Finger Lakes and the Lake George-Saratoga regions of New York. The fog should dissipate within an hour of sunrise later this morning. Thanks to high pressure overhead, today will be another hot and humid day with temperatures possibly reaching or exceeding the values hit yesterday afternoon. As we saw yesterday, temperatures struggled to get higher than 90 degrees due to limited mixing and shorter amount of daylight. Therefore, have decided to forecast temps only a degree or two higher than yesterday, mainly due to the milder overnight lows this morning. An isolated shower may be possible across the Berkshires and Southern Vermont this afternoon. However, despite some low level moisture, the mid and upper levels are very dry so any cu that does form should be capped. Elsewhere, it will be sunny and dry. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure both at the surface and aloft will remain situated over the region through Tuesday evening, allowing for hot and humid conditions to continue. A dry wind shift boundary will sag south through the region late Monday into Monday night. This will allow for mid level moisture to increase from the south-southeast on Tuesday, leading to an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures are expected to once again reach the mid and upper 80s on Tuesday, but the cloud cover will determine if any locations see the 90 degree mark for potentially the third day in a row. Wednesday, the upper ridge finally starts to break down as an upper trough approaches from the west. There is some indication that scattered showers and storms develop in a pre frontal trough Wednesday afternoon. But these showers/storms should remain isolated at best. The cold front then slides through Wednesday night but is fairly moisture-starved. Have therefore reduced pops from the ER Superblend. Wednesday should be a few degrees cooler than previous days due to increased cloud cover and potential shower activity. Temperatures are expected to reach the low 80s by the afternoon, with humid conditions continuing. A relief to the heat and humidity will be upon us behind the frontal passage Wednesday night as the winds turn out of the north and drier air filters into the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The extended forecast will feature more seasonable temperatures with limited rain chances late Friday into the first half of the weekend with a cold front and a trough of low pressure. Thu-Thu night...A sfc cold front will be southeast of the region early Thu. The front will interact with Maria and direct her well east to northeast into the Atlantic. Strong low to mid level tropospheric cold advection will occur with 850 HPa temps falling to +4C to +9C from northwest to southeast across the region. Brisk and cool conditions are expected with a few lake enhanced showers over the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens. Highs will be a shade above normal with upper 60s to mid 70s mainly in the valleys and the hilltowns with upper 50s to mid 60s over mountains with breezy conditions. Mostly clear and seasonably cool conditions Thu night with a weak sfc high building in. Lows will be mainly in the 40s with a few lower 50s in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT, and a few upper 30s in the southern Adirondacks. Fri-Sat...A short-wave trough embedded in the progressive mid and upper level long wave trough approaches Fri afternoon. The cyclonic vorticity advection ahead of the short-wave will focus some isolated to scattered showers late in the day and into the overnight period. The better lift and moisture convergence on the GFS/ECMWF with the short-wave and cold front will be from the Capital Region north and west. The QPF with the system looks fairly light with around a tenth of an inch or less. The forecast area needs the rainfall, as it has been very dry the past few weeks. The front shifts east of the region by daybreak Saturday and some isolated showers persist on Saturday with the upper trough axis passage. Highs on Fri will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s in the valley areas, and mid 50s to lower 60s over the mtns. Lows Fri night fall in the upper 30s to lower 40s over the mtns, and mid and upper 40s in most of the lower elevations. Slightly below normal temps are possible on Saturday with the upper trough passage, as highs will be in the 50s over the higher terrain, and lower to mid 60s in the valleys. Sat night into Sunday... A sfc anticyclone ridges in from the Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada with seasonably cool and fair weather. Some patchy frost may be possible over the southern Adirondacks, southern Greens and eastern Catskills with lows in the mid and upper 30s. Elsewhere, lows will be in the 40s. The sfc high settles over NY and New England with sunny and fair weather with temps near normal for the first day of October. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in place over the region today into tonight. Th radiational mist/fog at KGFL/KPSF in the IFR/LIFR range will burn off quickly by 13Z. Some patchy mist near KALB will also dissipate prior to 13Z. VFR conditions should prevail from the late morning through the afternoon with few-sct cirrus and few-sct cumulus around. A VCSH group was used at KPSF, as a pop-up shower may develop over the western New England higher terrain. Tonight, another round of radiational mist/fog is likely with greatest confidence for IFR/LIFR conditions at KGFL/KPSF once again especially shortly before or just after 06Z. KALB/KPOU less confident for IFR or lower conditions and we have placed some shallow fog/MIFG or vsbys close to 5SM. Winds will be calm this mid morning, and become variable in direction during the late morning into the afternoon 5 KT or less. Expect calm winds to return tonight. Outlook... Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the region through the next several days, providing dry conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Temperatures could reach record high levels today through Tuesday. RH values will be in the 80 to 100 percent range Monday night and Tuesday night. RH values will drop to 40 to 60 percent this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Light and variable north to northeast winds this morning will trend east and southeast this afternoon into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next week. An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is forecast well into this coming work week as high pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall will be on Wednesday and Thursday with less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall expected. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures will be possible today through Tuesday. Here is a list of the current Record highs for September 25-26: Albany NY: September 25th/Monday: 89 degrees 1970 September 26th/Tuesday: 89 degrees 2007 Daily records date back to 1874 Glens Falls NY: September 25th/Monday: 84 degrees 2007 September 26th/Tuesday: 87 degrees 2007 Records date back to 1949 Poughkeepsie NY: September 25th/Monday: 89 degrees 1970 September 26th/Tuesday: 90 degrees 2007 Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from January 1993 through July 2000. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS/JVM NEAR TERM...BGM/JVM SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...NAS/JVM HYDROLOGY...NAS/JVM CLIMATE...

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