Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 160512 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1212 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. A light snow will occur early this evening across portions of the mid Hudson Valley into northwestern Connecticut. While moderate accumulations of lake effect snow are expected across portions of the Western Adirondacks into Saturday. Otherwise fair weather is expected through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1210 AM EST...Regional radar shows that light snow has ended over southeastern parts of the CWA, as the back edge on the backside of the storm is moving across south-central New England. Meanwhile, a band of lake effect snow is starting to organize over Lake Ontario. This band will initially impact areas northwest of the western Adirondacks. However, this band will start to shift southward towards our area and start impacting northern Herkimer County by 2 AM or so. The band will gradually shift southward through the late night hours. Although the band won`t last too long at any location, it will briefly fall heavily and will accumulate up to 6 inches (especially for areas along/near Route 28). A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect. For the remainder of the area, it will be partly to mostly cloudy and continued chilly. Still, its not nearly as cold as last night but still below normal with lows mainly in the teens. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... The lake effect snows will shift southward Saturday morning as a cold front moves and will diminish late in the morning into the early afternoon as ridging builds in and disrupts the favorable low level flow. Additional accumulations will be light. Fair weather is then expected through Sunday the ridge shifts eastward across the region as the upper flow become flat nearly zonal across the eastern United States. Temperatures will remain below normal with another cold night Saturday in the wake of the cold front. Lows Saturday night will generally in the single digits into the teens with some below zero readings across a portion of the western Adirondacks. Temperatures will moderate back to seasonable levels Sunday night into Monday as warm front approaches. With this comes chances for overrunning warm air advection precipitation. A light snowfall is possible with it expected to become warm enough Monday for some rain especially in the mid Hudson Valley where it could reach 40 degrees. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level flow will be fairly zonal across the region to start the extended period, although a strong (yet fast moving) upper level shortwave will be approaching for the middle of the week. Ahead of this approaching feature, some light precipitation will be moving across the region for Monday night into Tuesday, although coverage will be fairly spotty due to the surface features being weak. With a warming boundary layer, valley areas may generally see rainfall (especially by Tuesday afternoon), with light snowfall for the higher terrain and far northern areas. Any snowfall amounts will generally be an inch or less, as total QPF is very light. Lows on Monday night will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s with temps rising late in the overnight. Highs on Tuesday will reach into the 40s in many spots. As the fast moving trough slides across the Northeast, a quick shot of cold air looks to move across the area for Wednesday. Temps will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s with breezy northwest winds. Some lake- effect snow will develop off Lake Ontario and produce some accumulation for the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley for late Tuesday night through Wed early. Lows on Wed night will be much colder in the teens and 20s. High pressure should allow for dry weather for much of Wednesday night into Thursday with seasonable temperatures. The next storm system looks to approach for some point late in the week and into the weekend, as the models don`t agree on the exact timing. This storm looks to pass to our west, so a warmup with a changeover to rain looks to occur for most of the area as precip moves through the region. While precip could start as some snowfall, most areas should see a majority of the precip as rainfall, as temps warm into the 40s by Friday. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Flying conditions are currently IFR at KPOU due to light snow thanks to a passing coastal wave. Snow should end their within the next hour or two, allowing for VFR conditions to return. Cannot totally rule out some brief MVFR snow from reaching KPSF over the next hour, otherwise, the remaining sites will stay VFR with just bkn-ovc mid level clouds. As the storm system departs, it will be VFR for the rest of the night with light s-sw winds around 5 kts and just some sct-bkn lingering clouds. During the day on Saturday, cannot rule out a flurry at KPSF/KALB due to lake-effect bands, but no accumulation is expected and visibility shouldn`t be impacted. Otherwise, it will stay VFR on Saturday with west winds increasing to around 10 kts with some higher gusts. Ceilings will be bkn around 3500-5000 ft, but may start to sct out towards evening. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are expected into early next weekend. Ice will continue to form on areas lakes and streams. Any snowfall will be light with the exception of moderate accumulations of lake effect snow across portions of the western Adirondacks into Saturday morning. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ032-033. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis/11 SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis HYDROLOGY...IAA

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