Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 242230
AFDEKA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Eureka CA
330 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Building high pressure will maintain warm and dry weather this
weekend through early next week. Inland temperatures will reach
the 80s and 90s while coastal temperatures will be in the 60s
and 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Low level subsidence cleared out pretty much all of northern
California this afternoon making for quite a pleasant day with
breezy winds on the coast. Clouds may develop along parts of the
coast this evening with mostly clear conditions expected inland.
Saturday and Sunday should be similar to today with inland
temperatures increasing a few degrees each day.

The warming trend will continue through early next week as 500mb
heights rise behind the exiting upper level trough. Models
suggest that some weak waves embedded in the upper level flow will
overtop the ridge on Sunday and Monday afternoons but they should
have minimal impacts on northwestern California as 500mb heights
remain near 580dam. At most, these waves could squeeze some drizzle
out of coastal clouds or spin up some weak showers over the
mountains but confidence it so low I left it out of the forecast.
Expect interior temperatures to be in the 80s and 90s over the
next several days while coastal and near-coastal regions will
reach the 60s and 70s. Inland temperatures will even approach the
triple digits by early next week. On the whole, expect warm and
dry weather to persist through the forecast period with some
coastal cloudiness possible in the mornings and sunny skies in the
afternoons.

Long range models are showing an upper trough moving the region
late next week which could bring some wet conditions and cooling
temperatures but it is too early to pin point details at this
time. /KML

&&

.AVIATION...

Northwest winds gusting near 25 knots have already developed at KCEC
over the last few hours, and we expect similar winds to develop at
KACV, with gusts to near 20 knots possible.  These winds will
diminish after sunset. The challenge tonight lies with the numerical
model guidance, which continues to strongly suggest IFR ceilings and
visibilities at these terminals overnight. However, from a pattern
recognition standpoint, we have doubts if this will happen.

For now, MVFR visibilities were inserted into the forecast for these
terminals, with a scattered cloud group around 600 feet. We`ll
continue to monitor numerical/observations trends for a possible
degrade in category with the later TAF packages.

Further south, winds will be much lighter at KUKI, with VFR
conditions prevailing. /PD

&&

.MARINE...

The models remain in good agreement and observations are lining up
well with what he have in the forecast. Currently, a shortwave
trough is crossing Montana. As the trough continues to depart the
region, high pressure will strengthen and expand eastward. Northerly
winds will strengthen on its east flank, similar to what we`ve
talked about the past few days. Additionally, the afternoon thermal
trough will continue its diurnal strengthening. These features will
allow the pressure gradient to tighten, with sustained winds of 10
to 20 knots for the inner waters, with waves remaining under 10
feet, and periods of 8 to 10 seconds. For our outer waters, winds of
20 to 30 knots are expected, with waves generally in the 10 to 12
feet range.

With no significant troughs forecast to dive south (which would
weaken or displace the ridge), the synoptic pattern will remain
unchanged through next week. A ridge of high pressure aloft,
currently centered across Louisiana, will retrograde west to near the
Four Corners region as it strengthens. As it does so, riding aloft
will increase across our Northwest California, with any disturbances
in the jet stream deflected north of the area.

What this means for our waters is northerly winds will gradually
increase through the week, with waves remaining close to their
forecast heights/periods. Small Craft Advisories are currently in
place through Monday morning, and these will likely be extended over
the next few days. /PD

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday FOR PZZ450-455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday FOR PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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