Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 121223
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
423 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY AND
SUNDAY IN AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. CHANCES FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND A RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE COAST
THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BRING SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TO
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A TENTH OF INCH IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY TO A TRACE IN SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. ELSEWHERE AROUND
THE AREA WILL SEE CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS AS A SHORT PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATE IN
THE DAY CLOUDS WILL START MOVING INTO THE NORTH AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AND
RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN DEL NORTE...HUMBOLDT
AND TRINITY COUNTIES. ONCE AGAIN SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AGAIN WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS.

MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE COAST
CLEAR AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY KEEPING THE
AREA DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...BUT AS WE CONTINUE TO BE A MAINLY DRY
PATTERN THIS BECOMES LESS LIKELY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT
SYSTEM STARTING TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIER RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY BOTH SHOW SOME SHOWERS
LINGERING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL
ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE NOW
CUTTING OFF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST AND MOVING IT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE SPEED OF
THESE UPPER LEVEL LOWS...SO HAVE NOT RAISED POPS ALL THAT MUCH.
MKK

&&

.AVIATION....VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV TODAY. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WESTERLY SWELL PROPAGATES THROUGH THE
WATERS. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE
ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

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