Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

000
FXUS66 KEKA 302213
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
313 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS
INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT POTENT COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE COAST. A
FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION TOTALS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WITH THE
FRONT WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING.

THE COLD UPPER LEVEL CORE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 4500 FEET WHICH WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS TO RECEIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...THE STRONGER SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING WHICH COULD IMPACT ANY LOCATION IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

THE GFS MODEL REMAINS INCONSISTENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AFTER
HAVING DRIVEN A COLD FRONT INTO NW CALIFORNIA NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY
WITH YESTERDAY`S 12Z RUN...THE MODEL HAS NOW SHIFTED BACK NORTH
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THUS WILL KEEP WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AFTER THE SYSTEM MONDAY/TUESDAY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
KCEC AND KACV TO IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED AT KUKI EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT UKI.


&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SEAS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THESE TWO SYSTEMS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TUESDAY DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN THE SEAS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM PDT FRIDAY TO 2 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.