Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 051136
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
336 AM PST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
WARMUP THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL WITH FROST DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS OF NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR AREAS. YESTERDAY SEVERAL LOCATIONS PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY
INCREASE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE ALSO
BRINGS SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO POOL IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. THUS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT WITH SOME FROST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT OF FROSTY CONDITIONS IN
INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTY BEFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS TREND UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND 40 THIS WEEKEND.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL BE
TODAY AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. DOWNSLOPING INTO THE HUMBOLDT
BAY AREA MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE
TODAY INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS VERY
LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN BACK OUT OF THE NORTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A RETURN TO HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY
SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOR COASTAL AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY MID
NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO PLOW INTO THE RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A
WEAK...MOISTURE DEPRIVED SYSTEM WITH PRIMARILY SHOWERY CONDITIONS
OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL A GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF AT LEAST SOME RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN KEPT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR NEXT THURSDAY.
/RPA


&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME VERY LOCALIZED EARLY MORNING INTERIOR
VALLEY FOG...ALL AREAS INCLUDING THE COAST SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.


&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH CAUSES THE GRADIENT TO CONTRACT.
ADVISORIES SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY. AS FOR THE SEA STATE, THERE WILL
BE A MIX BAG OF WAVE SYSTEMS. A NORTHERLY CHOP WILL DEVELOP WITH
INCREASING WINDS OTHERWISE TWO SWELL SYSTEMS, ONE FROM THE NW AND
THE OTHER FROM THE S, WILL PROPAGATE THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN ADDITIONAL NW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS NEXT
WEEK. /KML


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ002-076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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