Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 231402 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1002 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Jose will meander well south of Cape Cod into the weekend, gradually weakening with time. Meanwhile, a large building ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather across our region through the weekend and into early next week. We`ll see a very nice stretch of dry and unseasonably warm weather with temperatures running well above normal through at least Monday. A front will remain nearly stationary north of our region Wednesday, before sweeping south as a cold front on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1005 AM Update...Little change to the going forecast. A nice summer-like day is in shore with plenty of sun, light winds, and highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s depending on location. 555 AM...Minor ESTF update to reflect the current mesonet in near term grids. Prev disc... At 06z...a 1021 millibar high was centered over northern New England. A 1003 millibar low...the remnants of Jose...was centered southeast of the 40N/70w benchmark. GOES infrared imagery showed the northern periphery of the cloud shield from the offshore low extended into southern New Hampshire and the coastal plain of Maine. Elsewhere...skies were clear and we`ll see some valley fog and stratus form in the predawn hours. For today...the cloud shield will shift offshore this morning with sunshine and well above normal temperatures under a building upper ridge. Highs will be in the lower and mid 80s...but a bit cooler at the coast as light winds turn onshore. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Mostly clear tonight under the surface high with some late night valley stratus and fog developing once again. Lows will be around 60. It`ll be even warmer on Sunday as the ridge remains in place with high temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90. It`ll be slightly cooler near the coast once again as light winds turn onshore by afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A large scale upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather conditions in Northern New England on Sunday. H8 temperatures will reach +18C. With nearly full sun and good mixing, temperatures will soar through the 80s in most areas. Right along the shoreline, temperatures will be slightly cooler due to an onshore afternoon sea breeze. The record high temperature is 90 in Concord which has a chance of being tied. In the Forest City of Portland, the record high temperatures for Sunday is 88 degrees where readings will likely fall short due to the onshore flow. There is a chance that winds may switch with the close proximity of a backdoor cold front on Monday. However, this frontal passage is somewhat uncertain at this time which could lead to an underforecast of the high temperatures. For now, will forecast lower to mid 80s over the interior, with 70s right along the shoreline which is still well above normal for this time of the year. By Tuesday, there may be an outside chance of a shower over far northern areas near the proximity of the stalled out front. Over the coastal waters, some patchy drizzle or a passing shower may occur of the Gulf of Maine with low level easterly surface winds. A strong cold front will approach the region on Wednesday. Latest guidance suggests this front may be a slow mover and not cross the region until Thursday with scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Latest model guidance also pulls Maria closer to the Mid Atlantic and Southeast coast during the mid week period, before shunting the system out to sea. It is unclear as to whether some of this moisture can be entrained into the frontal system. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through Sunday/...VFR conditions except some MVFR cigs over southern and coastal areas of ME/NH through 13z today. Lcl LIFR btw 09z-12z today and again Sunday along the CT River Valley in stratus and fog. Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected Monday through Tuesday, with IFR valley fog likely at night in the interior. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Sunday/...The remnants of Jose will remain nearly stationary well south of Cape Cod through today. This will mean SCA conditions for seas are expected to continue over the outer waters and Casco Bay today. Long Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds. A long period swell from Maria may effect the waters later in the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Long period swells from the remnants of Jose will continue through today. Some minor beach erosion remains possible. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MEZ023>027. NH...High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NHZ014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-152>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...MLE

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