Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 222359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
659 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

On Thursday, stratus will be widespread across much of the area in
the morning, then clearing out from west to east in the afternoon.
The NAM and GFS continue to differ on location of the surface
low. The main surface low will deepen southeastward from extreme
sern Wy and northeast Colorado in the morning, to along eastern
Colorado by late afternoon. The location of the inverted surface
trough in western Nebraska is forecast further west by the NAM.
Prefer a compromise between the NAM and GFS. The upper trough will
advance across Wyoming and Colorado, as a closed low begins to
develop in southwest Colorado by late afternoon. High temperatures
will rise to near 80 in portions of southwest Nebraska, to the
upper 60s northeast, where stratus will persist. Height falls from
the approaching upper level system will begin to cause increasing
lapse rates. Isolated thunder storms are possible by late
afternoon in eastern areas, especially along the existing dryline
or differential heating boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

The going forecast remains on track for the system moving into the
region on Thursday evening. The best chance for precipitation will
be after 6pm. This system not only has the potential to bring heavier
rain to the region Thursday night and Friday, but also the risk
for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday night. Isolated Severe
potential is favorable. Nearly 1500 J/kg of CAPE and 60-70 knots
of deep layer shear will be present south of a line from Oshkosh
to Mullen to Thedford and Broken Bow. The greatest threat with
thunderstorms on Thursday night will be large hail along with
isolated severe downburst winds. After midnight, severe weather
potential diminishes and the developing deformation zone will
become the focus for a heavy rain event Friday into Friday night.
A half inch to and inch and a quarter are possible across much of
the forecast area, with locally higher amounts where thunderstorms
develop. Rain pushes east of the region by Saturday morning.
Cooler temperatures are in store for Friday and into the weekend.
Friday highs only near 50 degrees, whereas Saturday and Sunday
range in the 50s.

A chance for rain showers Sunday afternoon and evening across the
western Sandhills as a weaker upper trough cross the region.
Otherwise, the next chance of precipitation arrives late Monday
through Wednesday. Timing difference amongst the models is
resulting in the chances spanning the periods. Temperatures rise
into the low 60s on Monday before returning to the mid and upper
50s for Tuesday and Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

For the KLBF terminal: Clouds will be on the increase overnight as
low clouds will move into the forecast area toward 10z Thursday
and are expected to persist through late morning. Ceilings will
fall off to around 1000 FT AGL before increasing to 4000 FT AGL
Thursday afternoon. Expect clearing toward late afternoon with
scattered CIGS around 15000 FT AGL. For the KVTN terminal: Expect
Broken CIGS around 20000 FT AGL overnight with ceilings falling
off to around 1500 FT AGL Thursday morning. Ceilings will increase
to 5000 to 10000 FT AGL Thursday afternoon.


Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Temperatures across southwest Nebraska will approach 80 degrees.
This will bring minimum relative humidity from 18 to 25 percent.
South winds across this area will be 10 to 20 mph, with a few
gusts to 25 mph possible. This will cause elevated fire weather
conditions, with critical conditions not expected at this time.




LONG TERM...Roberg
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