Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 221306
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
506 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A 150 KNOT JET STREAM IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT THE 300 MB LEVEL OVER THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER AREA.
WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND NOW OVER AND SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WE`RE MOSTLY IN THE SHOWERY
PORTION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM. RADAR RETURNS AT ONE POINT
OVERNIGHT WERE MOVING EASTWARD A 72 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONE
HOUR RAIN RATES OF 0.25" TO 0.50" AN INCH. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND ARE ENHANCING AS THE ARE
FORCED UPWARD BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE LAST HOUR WEST OF CAPE BLANCO.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WERE IMPRESSIVE IN SOME
AREAS AND LESSER THAN EXPECTED IN OTHERS, WITH RED MOUND RECEIVING OVER
5 INCHES AND A CITIZEN`S WEATHER STATION IN THE BROOKINGS AREA
REPORTING NEARLY 6.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL. HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND 0.40" IN MEDFORD TO AROUND AN INCH
IN THE EAGLE POINT AND EVANS CREEK AREAS. WINDS WERE STRONG, AS
EXPECTED, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 75 MPH RANGE AT FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

TODAY WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND THE JET STREAM LINGERS, SLOWLY
DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. A WIND ADVISORY STILL REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SUMMER LAKE AREA AND HIGH TERRAIN OF THE EAST
SIDE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW LEVELS ARE A BIT
TRICKY RIGHT NOW, AS THEY HAVE HELD IN THE 6KFT TO 7KFT RANGE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE STORM IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA, BUT APPEAR TO
HAVE RISEN TO 7-8KFT ELSEWHERE. THERE`S CLEARLY COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING FROM THE NORTHWEST, MORE SO ALOFT THAN AT THE SURFACE.
SO, SUSPECT THE PICTURE WILL BE CLEARER AT SUNRISE, WHEN ROAD
CAMERAS WILL TELL US MORE. IT APPEARS WET SNOW IS LIKELY FALLING
IN THE DIAMOND LAKE AREA NOW. WE EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION SLOWLY DIMINISHES. MOST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT AND ABOVE 4KFT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHNACE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF, FOR THE MOST PART. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WE DO EXPECT SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT IT WILL BE LIGHT WHERE
IT DOES OCCUR. WARMING ALOFT IS LIKELY TO TRAP COOLER AIR IN THE
VALLEYS WITH TIME, BUT INCREASING WINDS ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHOULD PREVENT AIR STAGNATION FROM BEING A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THE PATTERN PROGRESSING BACK TO AN ACTIVE
ONE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/06Z TAF CYCLE...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG
THE COAST. WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALOFT, THERE CAN STILL BE
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE CAUSING SOME BUMPY RIDES INTO AND OUT
OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY BEHIND IT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT TERRAIN WILL REMAIN OBSCURED, ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST-FACING SLOPES WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO 4500-5500 FEET. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY, MAINLY
BEYOND 10 NM. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-623-624.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
  FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BTL/CC/SPILDE



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