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000
FXUS66 KMFR 240930
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
230 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS HOVERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON STATE
AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...MILDER TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER. IN FACT THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN OUT PRETTY NICE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH WEAK TROFING OVER THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING SOUTH INTO WESTERN
OREGON SATURDAY MORNING AND WE`LL SEE SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROF
SWINGS SOUTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE EASTSIDE WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW LIFT NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ANY DRY BREAKS WILL BE
BRIEF. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONGER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAIN TO THE COAST
MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREADING INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON
SO IT SHOULD NOT BE A TOTAL WASH OUT -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...

BASED ON THE 24/06Z TAF CYCLE.

DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE NORTH COAST INTO THE
NORTH CASCADES AROUND CRATER LAKE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF RAIN
WITH MVFR CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS,
BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF US. THE EAST
SIDE AND NORCAL WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUD OVER
ERN OREGON AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN NORCAL. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ370-376.

$$