Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 271502
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
802 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...27/12Z NAM IN.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST. IT WILL BE
DRY WITH VERY WARM INLAND TEMPERATURES. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE COMING WEEK TO THOSE
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST SIDE TUESDAY...AND THAT
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK THERE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS MONDAY...BUT STILL
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...A COMPLEX TWO PART SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
THE WEAKENING LONG WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY. IT WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST SIDE AND POSSIBLY SOME
SHOWERS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STORM TRACK WILL
HAVE MIGRATED TO THE NORTH BY THIS TIME AND IT WILL JUST BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MEDFORD CWA. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND WHAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE MEDFORD CWA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT THE
UMPQUA BASIN AND THE COAST.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY
WEAK EVENT...BUT IT WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INLAND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO FRIDAY. THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SETTLE
INTO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL CLEAR TO
VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT MONDAY 26 APR 2015...A BRIEF AND
WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA TODAY
BUT NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOUTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT.
NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT...INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...AND AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GALES ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF POINT SAINT
GEORGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/15


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