Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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FXUS66 KMFR 250541
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1041 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Updated AVIATION Section

.DISCUSSION...An updated was made to the aviation section.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track and the previous discussion
from this afternoon/evening follows below. -Spilde

&&

.AVIATION...For the 25/06Z TAF cycle...Offshore flow should take
hold overnight to minimize the amount of low cloud/fog that develops
along the coast. As a result, have removed IFR from the North Bend
TAF, but could see patchy low clouds in some of the coastal river
valleys like the Coquille. There is a better chance of IFR/MVFR
ceilings along the coast north of Cape Blanco Saturday night. The
rest of the area will be VFR for the next 24 hours. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 PM PDT fri 24 June 2016...A thermal trough
will strengthen this afternoon and evening...bringing a return of
strong north winds and very steep wind driven seas to the coastal
waters. North winds are expected to strengthen further Saturday
afternoon and evening with an area of Gales developing beyond 10 nm
from shore from Gold Beach southward. North winds will weaken only
slightly on Sunday. Winds and seas will peak in the afternoons and
evenings, with the most hazardous conditions expected from Cape
Blanco south. This pattern will continue through much of next week.
-CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 805 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...The only update this evening was to the aviation
section. Otherwise, the forecast is on track and the previous
discussion from this afternoon follows below. -Spilde

AVIATION...For the 25/00Z TAF cycle...Areas of IFR cigs are
expected along the coast north of Cape Blanco tonight and early
Saturday morning.  Drier air and increasing offshore flow will
result in continued VFR conditions everywhere else through Saturday.
-CC

MARINE...Updated 300 PM PDT fri 24 June 2016...A thermal trough
will strengthen this afternoon and evening...bringing a return of
strong north winds and very steep wind driven seas to the coastal
waters. North winds are expected to strengthen further Saturday
afternoon and evening with an area of Gales developing beyond 10 nm
from shore from Gold Beach southward. North winds will weaken only
slightly on Sunday. Winds and seas will peak in the afternoons and
evenings, with the most hazardous conditions expected from Cape
Blanco south. This pattern will continue through much of next week.
-CC

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 300 PM PDT Fri 24 June 2016...Hot
temperatures and low humidity are expected Saturday through the next
week as a thermal trough pattern develops. This particular episode
will be more noteworthy for its length than its strength. Record
highs are not expected but high temperatures will be about 10
degrees warmer on Saturday and persist at 5 to 15 degrees above
normal through the week. The pattern will produce east winds that
will be weak to moderate...strongest over ridges from the Cascades
westward to the coastal range. This will mean moderate to locally
poor mid slope and ridge top humidity recoveries with the worst
recoveries at the southern Oregon coastal range and the Klamath and
Siskiyou Mountains. Recoveries look to be worst on Saturday night
but will not be that much better in subsequent nights.

Weak instability looks to develop on Monday afternoon and produce a
few cumulus buildups. A capping inversion and meager amount of
moisture aloft will hinder thunderstorm development but this very
weak instability does look to be present during the afternoon and
evening hours from Monday through Thursday. -DW

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 231 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...As an upper trough axis moves east of us tonight,
an upper ridge will begin building over our area, and a thermal
trough develops along the coast. This will result in a rapid
return to warm summertime conditions tomorrow with even hotter
conditions on Sunday. It will be dry all areas through tomorrow
night, but by Sunday evening, some guidance shows a minimal
potential for convection over the Cascades north of Crater Lake.
It wasn`t enough to put any showers or thunderstorms in, yet.
Monday, however, we did add some thunderstorms to that area as
models show a slight increase in instability and moisture and a
weak shortwave in the flow.

We will remain under warm southwest flow aloft through the rest of
next week. We will see occasional disturbances in the flow that
may touch off thunderstorms over the mountains at times, but no
particular day stands out as more likely than others at this
point. We`ll have to wait and see about the potential for storms,
but it is expected to be warm to hot through next week. -Wright

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for
     PZZ350-370.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ376.

$$

MAS/TRW/CC/DW


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