Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 230944

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
344 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...High pressure and dry conditions will persist
today and Monday...not completely unlike the past few days for
western Montana and north central Idaho. There is a weak backdoor
front that will slide along the Glacier Park region of the Divide,
bringing about a breezy north-northeast wind and maybe some
clouds Monday. Otherwise, not much change expected today and
Monday for the region.

There are, however, major changes to the forecast Monday through
Wednesday. The change comes as rather bad news for most: the wet
and active period previously forecast has been steadily drying.
This means that afternoon and evening thunderstorm potential for
Monday and Tuesday has pretty much evaportated, making both of
these days predominantly warm and dry.

Wednesday has also seen a dramatic change: where there was once a
somewhat organized weather system, now shows a much lesser chance
for scattered thunderstorms across southwest Montana and parts of
central Idaho. The amount of moisture available in the atmosphere
for thunderstorms, should they develop, is also much less than
shown in previous forecast runs. This does not bode well for the
continuously dry conditions we are experiencing across the
Northern Rockies, nor does it provide much relief for ongoing
wildfires. We will continue to monitor any future changes to the
forecast, in hopes that the moisture comes back into the picture
at some point.

The pattern looks to stay warm and dry Thursday through next


.AVIATION...High pressure will continue to build over the region
for the rest of today and tomorrow. Valley inversions will likely
return overnight and tomorrow night, trapping smoke from area
wildfires in the valleys. KMSO, KBTM, and KSMN are the more
likely locations to see impacts from smoke.



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