Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 222130
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
230 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Behind the cold front that passed through the region today snow
showers are expected to redevelop through north central Idaho,
west central Montana, and Lemhi County Idaho this evening. These
showers will keep snow accumulating on Lolo and Lost Trail passes.
These showers will continue into early Sunday with a decrease in
activity during the day before the next weather system arrives.

Another snow producing weather system will pass on Sunday night
that has a high chance to bring light snow accumulations through
much of north central Idaho and western Montana into early Sunday
morning. A rather lengthy winter weather advisory will be
maintained for the Bitterroots and Clearwater Mountains even
though there will likely be a distinct period of lesser impact
midday Sunday.

Drier conditions will return during the day Monday but a
potentially high impact, moist, weather system is becoming likely
for Monday night through Tuesday. This weather system should start
off cool in the valleys and have a very good Pacific moisture tap,
so widespread valley snow with heavy mountain snow is possible.

The weather could get even more interesting around Thanksgiving as
models area showing a moist northwest upper level flow developing
Wednesday over northwest Montana, while cold canadian surface air
slides into the area from the northeast. This could be a very good
snow pattern for northwest Montana Wednesday night and Thursday,
and over the remainder of western Montana and the higher terrain
of north Central Idaho Thursday and Thursday night. Model
consistency with this solution is new and still not ideal, keeping
forecast confidence relatively low. However, this will be looked
at closely over the next couple days.

&&

.AVIATION...Snow showers will develop later this afternoon through
north central Idaho and into west central Montana. Higher
elevations are expected to remain obscured with lowered
visibilities in snow. Lower elevations will only have periods of
lowered visibility overnight under stronger snow showers. High
pressure will briefly pass during the day on Sunday so cloud cover
will decrease somewhat and showers will decrease but this will all
be short-lived with another shortwave expected Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Midnight MST tonight
     Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM MST Monday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM MST Monday Lower Clark Fork
     Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM PST Monday Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Midnight MST tonight Eastern Lemhi
     County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$



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