Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 191602
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1202 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical cyclone Jose slowly moves south and east of the area
today through Wednesday night remaining in the well offshore
Western Atlantic. Weak high pressure builds over the area
Thursday through early next week as Jose weakens and slowly
tracks to the southeast. Please refer to National Hurricane
Center products for more details on Jose.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As the pressure gradient increases between Jose and a departing high,
winds will increase today, highest across eastern Long Island
and the ocean waters. Rain will continue to overspread the area
into this afternoon, with the stronger onshore flow across
eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. Rainfall will
be light to moderate. Most rainfall will be east of NYC while
near NYC and to the NW there will be more breaks of rainfall,
resulting in higher max temperatures here, upper 70s, versus
farther east across Southern CT and Long Island, low to mid
70s.

With long period swells allowing surf to build, dangerous beach
conditions will continue this evening. A high risk of rip
currents and high surf advisory remain in effect for Atlantic
beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Northeasterly winds continue to increase this evening, with the
highest winds and strongest gusts expected across eastern Long
Island and southeastern Connecticut tonight into Wednesday
morning. Any rain will continue through tonight before tapering
off Wednesday afternoon with dry conditions thereafter. In
addition to the winds and rain, dangerous conditions will
persist along the coast, where minor to moderate coastal
flooding will be possible. High surf and high risk of rip
currents will be seen along the Atlantic Ocean beaches. See the
hydrology and coastal flooding sections below for more
information.

Temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 60s, with highs
on Wednesday in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds across the area on Thursday. Winds will be
on a downward trend as the pressure gradient weakens Thursday
and then remains nearly the same going through the weekend. A
persistent northerly flow is expected. Highs are forecast be
mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows low to mid 60s are
forecast most nights with lows a little lower Thursday night
and Friday night with a range more in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Rough surf with locally higher waves will be likely at the beaches
during Wednesday night through Friday evening, when the ocean seas
are forecast to range 7-10 ft. This will be mainly east of Fire
Island Inlet due to continuous long period swell.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast of Jose late this week
into this weekend. Subsequent forecast could very well have changes.
Stay tuned for official track and intensity forecasts regarding Jose
from the National Hurricane Center.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure moves to the north of the terminals as Jose
approaches the New England coast today.

Showers will continue throughout the day, primarily from the
city on east. Ceilings are mainly MVFR to start, with a few VFR
breaks in and around the city terminals. In general, other than
at KISP and KGON, which should remain MVFR through the TAF
period, ceilings should continue to gradually, becoming VFR by
mid to late afternoon. Ceilings may lower again tonight to MVFR
across the rest of the area, but it is possible that VFR will
prevail outside of the eastern terminals.

Gusty NE flow will continue into Wednesday morning, with the
strongest wind gusts likely confined east of the city late this
afternoon through tonight.


     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Ceilings may end up improving a few hours
quicker than forecast. Gusts will steadily increase through the
day and could be a few kt higher than forecast.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is RED, which
implies slant range visibility less than 4SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Ceilings may end up improving a few hours
quicker than forecast. Gusts will steadily increase through the
day and could be a few kt higher than forecast.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is RED, which implies
slant range visibility less than 4SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Improvement to VFR this afternoon could
happen a few hours earlier than forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which
implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Improvement to VFR this afternoon could
happen a few hours earlier than forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: Ceilings may be higher than forecast and
could end up VFR sooner than forecast.

KISP TAF Comments: Low chance ceilings improve to VFR this
afternoon. Gusts could be a few kt higher than forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Wednesday...Lingering MVFR improves to VFR. Northerly wind
gusts gradually weaken through the day.
.Thursday-Friday...VFR. Gusty N winds around 20 kt east of city
terminals.
.Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As Jose lifts north through the Western Atlantic today, seas on
the ocean waters will continue to increase, building to 10 to
15 ft by this afternoon, and 12 to 18 ft by tonight. Seas near
the entrance to the LI Sound from the ocean will also become
rough and could approach the 7 to 10 ft range by tonight.

In terms of winds, highest winds will be on the ocean, farther
offshore where the tighter pressure gradient will be and here
is where some tropical storm force winds are expected. Hence,
the tropical storm warning is now in effect for the ocean. The
South Shore Bays and Peconic and Gardiners Bays remain in a
tropical storm watch.

For the Long Island Sound and NY Harbor, winds will not reach
as high, with sustained winds of near 20 to 30 kt with
occasional gusts to 35 kt. Therefore, those waters have a small
craft advisory that is in effect through Wednesday.

Higher ocean seas at least of 5 ft are forecast Wednesday night
through Saturday. Highest waves are forecast Wednesday night through
Friday with 7-10 ft on the ocean. Wind gusts exceed SCA criteria
with values near 25kt mainly on the ocean waters from Moriches to
Montauk out 20nm while late Thursday night into Friday could have
25kt gusts spread farther west into ocean waters south of Fire
Island Inlet and Eastern Long Island Sound and Eastern Long Island
Bays.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall amounts from Jose are expected to range
from less than 0.25 in and around NYC to near 1 inch across far
eastern Long Island. Locally higher rainfall amounts will be
possible, which could result in minor urban and poor drainage
flooding, especially in any heavier rain bands. Rainfall amounts
will decrease significantly north and west of New York City.
Please continue to monitor NHC and WPC forecasts for official
information about Jose via:
http:/hurricanes.gov and http:/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

No hydrologic problems are anticipated through the weekend with the
current rainfall forecast.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rising water levels combined with incoming energetic swells
from Jose, will bring increasingly dangerous surf of
potentially 10-15 ft into Wed. This will cause widespread dune
erosion (waves hitting base of dunes), and localized washovers
(wave overtopping dunes) into middle of next week.

With increasing confidence in track of Jose to the SE of Long
Island, have leaned towards a blend of the higher end and mean
of Stevens and P-ETSS guidance envelope for surge forecasts.
This points to potential for 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 ft of surge during
today`s evening into Wed high tide cycles, which would result
in widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding.

These surge values could result in 2 to locally 3 ft inundation
in our most vulnerable locations along the southern bays of
LI/NYC and Peconic/Gardiners Bay, with generally 1 to locally 2
ft across other vulnerable coastal areas. Wave action on top of
elevated waters levels will exacerbate impacts along the
beachfront.

As confidence increases in storm details over the next 24
hours, we will be able to refine these surge value and and
potential coastal flood hazards/impacts further.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for CTZ009.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Wednesday for CTZ009-010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Wednesday for NYZ074.
     Tropical Storm Watch for NYZ078>081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ071-075-
     177>179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Wednesday for NYZ071-177.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
     Wednesday for NYZ079>081.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Wednesday for NYZ075-178-179.
     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Wednesday for NYZ078.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Wednesday for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ330-335-
     338.
     Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ350-353-355.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fig
NEAR TERM...Fig/JM/PW
SHORT TERM...Fig
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...FEB/DS
MARINE...Fig/JM
HYDROLOGY...Fig
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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