Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 020028
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
528 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Expect a very hot weekend with afternoon temperatures in the mid
90s to near 105. The ongoing drought combined with high heat and
low humidity will raise concerns for wildfires the next several
days. A cold front will bring temperatures back closer to average
on Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will likely be
at or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: No changes to the fcst outside of increasing
the areal coverage of smoke near the Cascades. Visibilities will
likely remain obscured to less than one mile for certainly the
immediate Lake Chelan area from the Wolverine fire. Low temps were
warmed a bit also in these smoke-filled valleys based on low temps
this morning.bz

Sunday night through Wednesday: Models are back in pretty good
agreement of the large scale synoptic pattern through the first
part of the work week. They are showing a wave move up from the
south Sunday night through Monday. With this wave will be an
increase in moisture and some very weak instability. Have added
some sprinkles and thunderstorms to the forecast. Expect the area
of sprinkles and thunderstorms to move up into the central
Cascades early Monday morning and then spread north and east
through the day and out of the area by Tuesday morning. With the
additional cloud cover Sunday night and Monday night have
increased temperatures several degrees to about 6-10 degrees above
average for this time of the year. Tuesday and Wednesday we
transition into a more west or northwesterly flow as an upper
level low pressure system moves into central British Columbia. The
track of this low is indicative of breezy winds in the Cascades,
Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and Spokane/CDA areas (about
10-20 mph). The best chance of showers or thunderstorms will
reside across the mountains. Daytime Temperatures will finally
drop to around average for Tuesday and maybe even below average
for Wednesday. /Nisbet

Wednesday night through Saturday: Expect relatively cool
temperatures and a few opportunities for showers mainly around
the mountains. Model agreement regarding the precise evolution of
the pattern degrades with a lack of solid consistency. Loose
agreement suggests an upper trough will continue to migrate across
the Pacific NW early this period. This is followed by brief
shortwave ridging before another trough approaches. Additionally
the low spinning off the CA coast moves inland and potentially by
southeast WA and southern ID late next week. In short,
shower/t-storm chances will linger around the Cascades and
northern mountains Thursday and return here and toward the Blues
through central Panhandle Saturday with approach of the next
trough from the west and possible wave approaching from the south.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal early this
period, warming back closer to an above normal by late in the
period. /J. Cote`


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A large plume of elevated smoke will continue to track
towards Grand Coulee, Spokane, and Coeur D`Alene areas tonight
but prevailing surface visibilities should remain VFR...although a
fire near Sprague could track smoke up towards KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. As
the inversions sets in...lower level smoke will increase around
Chelan, with the BlueSky model keeping this smoke east of KEAT
again...but impacting KMWH overnight into Sunday morning.
Confidence is not high concerning timing of MVFR visibility as
KMWH...so went with a compromise between timing of BlueSky model
and persistance. Some improvement is expected Sunday afternoon at
KMWH as surface winds switch from N-NW to SW. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  97  70  94  67  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  58  96  63  94  64  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pullman        56  97  62  92  60  87 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       66 103  72  98  69  95 /   0   0  10  10  20  10
Colville       56  99  62  95  62  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      50  95  58  91  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Kellogg        58  95  58  94  61  85 /   0   0   0  10  20  20
Moses Lake     59  99  69  97  64  93 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      68  98  76  96  70  91 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Omak           60 100  70  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties.

&&

$$



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