Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 232304 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 604 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather can then be expected until the approach of the next front on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Some mid and upper level clouds continue to push through the area early this evening, especially along and north of I-80, as an upper level weave traverses the eastern Great Lakes region. Model soundings indicate a dearth of moisture below the mid- levels, so precipitation is not expected from this wave as it passes...just a few clouds. During the overnight hours, clearing skies in the wake of the wave and rapid boundary layer decoupling/radiational cooling will result in yet another cold night. Fries Warm air advection begins in earnest Friday morning, which should bring a quick warmup once mixing commences after daybreak. Highs should recover to near normal or even slightly above average readings. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Clouds will increase Friday night ahead of the next cold front. While models have maintained the broader details of the frontal passage, some of the finer details have been modified over the last 24 hours. Higher rain chances along and ahead of the cold front will still be largely confined to the northern 1/3 of the forecast area, but will move in during early morning hours. Current thinking is that southerly flow and increased cloud cover will keep Friday night lows a few degrees warmer than previous forecast. Cold air aloft won`t move in until Saturday afternoon in the wake of the cold front. This should help blossom shower activity in the afternoon/evening, but relatively warm surface temperatures should keep these showers in the liquid form. By the time the column cools enough to support snow, late Saturday evening, mid-level moisture will be non-existent and low-level moisture will be on the decline. Snow showers will certainly be possible north of I-80 and in the Ridges, but the window of solid cold air advection in northwest flow Sunday morning is shorter than previously indicated. Snow showers will be be limited outside of the previously mentioned areas. Still looking for little to no accumulation. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will be the dominant feature Sunday and through the first part of next week...resulting in dry conditions and a warming trend in temperatures. The next system is progged to impact the region in the middle of next week. SuperBlend was utilized heavily in the construction of the extended period. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will dominate through the TAF period. Wind will back slightly towards the southwest with time, and remain generally light. .Outlook... Restriction potential returns with a Sat cold front, and subsequent cold NW flow and upper troughing through early Sun. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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