Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 031008
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. A LOW IS MOVING
SOUTH AND DEEPENING THE TROUGH OVER OUR AREA, A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE AT THIS TIME OVER UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTY AND EXPECT THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE LEAVING TO THE
EAST. OTHERWISE MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA AND EXPECT FAIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER TODAY.  AN
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE CREST ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG.
TONIGHT THE LOW WILL BE ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST BUT MODELS SHOW A
RELATIVELY DRY FLOW OVER THE AREA SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE ANY
PRECIPITATION EXCEPT ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES IN THE EVENING.
ON FRIDAY THE LOW SETTLES OVER WESTERN OREGON AND BEGINS TO SEND
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BE THE
BEGINNING OF A MODERATE RAIN EVENT. CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-
JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING.
IN THE AFTERNOON IT WILL EXPAND TO A CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
ALONG WITH THE CASCADES.  THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL REMAIN DRY. ONE TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. FRIDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AS
YOU GO NORTH. SATURDAY THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
IDAHO AND THE RAIN WILL BEGIN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THOUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
BASIN THROUGH THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE ANOTHER QUARTER OF AN
INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY. ON
SATURDAY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH WEAKENS THERE WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES. PERRY


.LONG TERM...SATURDA Y NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODELS INDICATE A
SMALL TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW LATE MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WALLOWA COUNTY. THE GFS MODEL IS MUCH
STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH AND THEN SHOWS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY...BUT COMES BACK INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER LONG TERM
MODELS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL. 93


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  PATCHY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SCT CLOUDS 5-8KFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WIND AT KDLS WILL INCREASE TO 15-
20 KTS AFTER 18Z WITH 10-15 KTS ELSEWHERE.  WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  69  44  70  48 /   0   0  10  30
ALW  71  50  72  53 /   0  10  10  30
PSC  75  46  75  54 /   0   0  10  20
YKM  67  44  69  46 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  73  47  73  53 /   0   0  10  20
ELN  69  45  72  48 /  20  20  10  10
RDM  65  35  62  37 /  10  10  30  60
LGD  66  37  68  44 /  10  10  20  40
GCD  69  37  67  43 /  10  10  40  60
DLS  74  51  74  53 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/93/93


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