Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 020518
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1010 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FAIR AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. STORMS SCATTERED ABOUT THE FORECAST AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS MOVING THROUGH. SEVERAL STORMS HAVE BEEN
STRONG WITH HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE LATE
TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY. LOTS OF INSTABILITY BASED ON
MODEL FORECASTS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN. COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS.
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 90S TOMORROW. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. SCT-BKN 100-150 WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KT
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS. FOR SATURDAY EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL THE TAF SITES MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCT-BKN 100-150 WITH BRIEF CEILINGS 050-100 IN PRECIPITATION. WINDS
5-15KT.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 500 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES IMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE DISTURBANCE WILL PULL
PIECES OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF NEVADA WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA LATE
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SHEAR AND ENERGY MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR STRAY STRONG STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME DRYING FROM THE WEST MAY
BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, BUT THE BETTER DRYING
LOOKS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY. WILL INDICATE A DRY SLOT AROUND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE SATURDAY EVENING, WHILE LIMITING SHOWERS/STORMS
ON SUNDAY TO CENTRAL OREGON EAST TO GRANT COUNTY AND NORTHEAST TO
THE BLUES AND WALLOWAS. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTH END OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA LOOKS TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN
IDAHO ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH SOME EXTRA MOISTURE INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. MEANWHILE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
LOOKS TO INCREASE ACROSS WASHINGTON AND NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. THUS
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO BE IN
ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATIONS AS ON SUNDAY, THOUGH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD BE RATHER WET. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN EASTERN
OREGON AND WESTERN IDAHO WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON MONDAY EVENING. THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE OREGON
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY THUS KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON. THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE ELKHORN AND
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BY VIRTUE OF THE LOW STILL IN
FAR EASTERN OREGON. THEN FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. POLAN

FIRE WX...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON AS WELL AS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON ZONES.
THESE LOCATIONS ARE UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN
LATER THIS EVENING AND ON SATURDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE A
MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY WITH PRECIPITATION RANGING FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. DMH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  69  98  65  98 /  20  20  20  10
ALW  73  99  70  99 /  20  20  20  10
PSC  68 101  65 101 /  20  20  20  10
YKM  68  97  64  96 /  20  20  20  10
HRI  68 100  64 100 /  20  20  20  10
ELN  64  98  60  99 /  20  20  20  10
RDM  59  93  51  94 /  30  30  30  20
LGD  64  93  59  93 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  65  96  59  96 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  70  96  64  96 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ041-049-050-502-503-505>507-509>511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/





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