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000
FXUS66 KPDT 102257 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
357 PM PDT MON MAR 10 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE
DEPARTING THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
MOVING EASTWARD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WILL BE FLATTENED SOMEWHAT
BY A SYSTEM RIDING OVER THE TOP WEDNESDAY BUT NONETHELESS REMAIN IN
PLACE. THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THIS COULD BE A FEW CLOUDS CLIPPING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM DURING THE SHORT TERM AS PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER
RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THOUGH A COUPLE
OF SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE. THE FIRST WILL CROSS THE
CASCADE CREST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FEET SO MOST AREAS WILL SEE JUST SOME LIGHT
RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BREAK
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH FAIR AND SUNNY WEATHER. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER AS TO
THE TIMING. THE ECMWF BRINGS RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY MORNING THAT FIZZLES OUT AND DOES NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH. SINCE THE LATEST ECMWF RUN IS A LARGE DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN DROP TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ON MONDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA TO THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS, THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE OREGON COLUMBIA BASIN. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DIMINISHING.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED CB IN THE TAFS DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS AND THE LOW PROBABILITY OF A CELL CROSSING OVER A TAF SITE.
CEILINGS ARE SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT 3-7K FEET AGL CURRENTLY AND WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR BY 10Z-12Z. SKIES
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME MOUNTAIN CUMULUS ABOVE
5K FEET AGL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DROP BELOW 12 KTS BY 03Z-06Z
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERRY

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE UMATILLA, GRANDE
RONDE AND JOHN DAY RIVERS.  THE UPPER PARTS OF THE RIVERS HAVE SEEN
CRESTS AND ARE SLOWLY DECREASING WITH THE LOWER PORTIONS EXPECTED TO
SEE THE CREST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE JOHN DAY
RIVER AT SERVICE CREEK.  IT SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY. MOST SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS OVER NORTHEAST OREGON
HAVE CRESTED AND ARE RECEDING AS WELL. ML


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  34  52  32  59 /  30   0   0   0
ALW  35  54  35  61 /  30   0   0   0
PSC  34  58  34  62 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  30  56  31  59 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  34  57  33  63 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  30  54  32  57 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  26  51  25  58 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  29  49  30  52 /  40   0   0   0
GCD  30  50  31  53 /  40   0   0   0
DLS  34  57  34  61 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83/93