Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 031028
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
328 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
AND SPREAD INLAND AS A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

EARLY THIS MORNING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF STRATUS OFF
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST WITH PATCHY STRATUS EXTENDING INLAND
INTO AREAS NEAR THE ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST. NOT MUCH
INLAND SPREAD OF THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
EASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE STRATUS.

FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. COOLING WILL SPREAD
INLAND TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS WEDNESDAY. GREATER STRATUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRATUS EXTENDING INTO THE
WESTERN VALLEYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MORE SIGNIFICANT
DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED WITH STRATUS PUSHING
ONTO THE LOWER COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENS.

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE CENTER
OF A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THURSDAY...THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...TO NEAR LAS VEGAS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN WEAKENING AND MOVING
EAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
COLDEST AIR AT 500 MB BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY.

DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...BUT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH NEAR THE COAST TO ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN BANDS OF SHOWERS AND IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 6500 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT AND
6000 TO 6500 FEET FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8
INCHES IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ABOVE 6500 TO 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE
MORE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY WITH
GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH MAINLY SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
MOVES EAST. DRY AND WARMER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
030900Z...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY NEAR
THE COAST WITH BASES 1000-1500 FEET MSL AND TOPS TO 2200 FEET. LOCAL
VIS AOB 5SM ALONG INLAND EXTENT AND ON HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN.
SCATTER OUT BY 15-17Z. LOW CLOUDS WITH SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AGAIN OVERNIGHT AFTER 04Z.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXCEPT A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM


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