Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 221730
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TUESDAY RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT WINDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS SLOPES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE LOCAL WRF HAS SURFACE WINDS IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
PEAKING AT AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN IN THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. BUFKIT
SHOWS THE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AS WELL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON
TUESDAY...THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING COOLING TO NEAR AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A QUICK LOOK AT ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS THE
TROUGH MOVING IN AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS
OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE VERY LONG TERM
SHOWS A BAGGY TROUGH OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SEEM TO
SHOW A LOT OF DIVERGENCE OUT THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
221600Z...PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCAL VIS 3-6SM
IN BR/HZ WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME P6SM BY 20Z. LOCAL SFC NE
TO E WIND GUSTS 35-55 KT...AREAS OF LLWS...AND MOD-STG UDDFS
POSSIBLE OVER AND SW/W OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...INCLUDING VCNTY OF KONT AND KSNA...WITH LIGHTER WINDS
REACHING KCRQ. OTHERWISE A FEW CLOUDS AOA 20 KFT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TUE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 AM...A DECREASING W-NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED SURF
TODAY...WITH SETS TO 7 FT MAINLY IN SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. A
REINFORCING LONG-PERIOD W-NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...LIKELY CONTINUING ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS INTO
THURSDAY. MORNING HIGH TIDES AROUND 7 FT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW THROUGH TUE. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS...LAXCFWSGX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS LATE TODAY...PEAK LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO COOL
WEDNESDAY. LOWEST INLAND HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN RECOVER THURSDAY. INCREASED FUEL
MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE
DANGER.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT












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