Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 111018
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
UNDER A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VERY WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S WILL BE VERY COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A FEW DAILY
HIGH TEMP RECORDS WILL PROBABLY FALL AGAIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE REGION WEAKENS EVER SO SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES. IT WILL NOT BE AS HOT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE. WE MIGHT EVEN SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SKY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE COLDER AIR THAT TROUGH WILL BRING TO THE GREAT
BASIN WILL REINVIGORATE OUR OFFSHORE FLOW AND SANTA ANA WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WIND GUSTS IN THE FOOTHILLS COULD EXCEED 50 MPH
IN SPOTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPS THOSE DAYS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY
INTO RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME SPOTS HITTING 90
OR HIGHER. WE BEGIN TO TURN THE OTHER WAY ON TUESDAY WHEN A TROUGH
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OUR MIGHTY RIDGE.
THE TROUGH TAPS INTO MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS AND SENDS IT OUR WAY
ON WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS THEN. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT QUITE ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
TROUGH...BUT THEY DEPICT A SIMILAR STRENGTH AND TRACK OF IT. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA THURSDAY BRINGING JUST ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FOR SOME SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME BRISK ONSHORE WINDS WILL COME
WITH IT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE A BIG RAIN MAKER IF IT COMES THROUGH AS
SHOWN TODAY. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO DEPART SWIFTLY EAST WITH FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

110945Z...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

145 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

145 AM...A LONG-PERIOD SWELL FROM 290 DEGREES WILL ARRIVE LATE TODAY
AND SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...PEAKING SATURDAY AT 9
FT/18 SEC. THIS WILL GENERATE SURF OF 3 TO 6 FEET AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCAL HIGHER SETS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF NEWPORT BEACH AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. SWELL AND SURF WILL SUBSIDE
ON MONDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 10 AM FRI
THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WARM AND DRY DAYS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HUMIDITY NEAR THE COAST ON
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SANTA ANA WINDS WILL RETURN. SOME
SPOTS IN THE FOOTHILLS COULD GET WINDS EXCEEDING 50 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL GO UP AND HUMIDITY WILL GO DOWN. THE LOWER
HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE POTENTIAL.

&&

.SKYWARN...

SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE...MM
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS


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