Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 301124
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
420 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
FAIR AND SEASONAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
HOTTER AND DRIER DAYS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. SLOW
COOLING MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE BEACHES ON SUNDAY...THEN SPREAD INLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CALIFORNIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OFF THE CALIFORNIA MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARDS THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PATCHY STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE POSSIBLE FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP A WEAK COASTAL EDDY. LOW CLOUDS MAY RETURN FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TOWARD SUNRISE OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN
INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
STRENGTHENS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ARIZONA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING IN ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTS
TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS
AND NEAR COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. WINDS COULD LOCALLY BE NEAR THE
LOWER END OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SLOW INLAND WARMING. GREATER WARMING IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR WESTERN VALLEYS AND
INLAND COASTAL AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS COMBINED
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR MANY AREAS. SLOW
COOLING MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY...THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SLOWLY
WEAKENS AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR THE LOWER END OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR THE VALLEYS...INLAND COASTAL AREAS...AND LOWER COASTAL MOUNTAIN
SLOPES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
300930Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. IF ANY COASTAL CLOUDS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE ISOLATED
BETWEEN 12-15Z THIS MORNING WITH BASES AROUND 1200 FEET MSL. GREATER
CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 04Z
THIS EVENING WITH BASES 800-1200 FEET MSL...BUT NOT EXTENDING VERY
FAR INLAND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW
WEAKENING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SLOW COOLING MAY BEGIN NEAR THE
BEACHES ON SUNDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL THURSDAY...WITH LOWEST
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY RECOVER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS. WHILE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET DURING
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL STILL BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES
FOR THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM








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