Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

000
FXUS66 KSGX 011109
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
409 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS MORNING TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATER TODAY TO SCATTERED RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT
TIMES. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SAN DIEGO REGION.
IT WILL THEN GRADUALLY BECOME DRIER AND WARMER NEXT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS PUSHING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA
ATTM. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN BUT IT IS SHORT
LIVED. RAIN BUCKETS HAVE MEASURED GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE TENTH TO
ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN BUT A FEW REPORTS OF MUCH HIGHER
AMOUNTS SUCH AS LYTLE CREEK IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS WHERE
1.52 INCHES FELL IN 6 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED RAIN HAS A
SHARP BACK EDGE AND WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE SAN DIEGO METRO
AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. THE COLD POOL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE
STILL QUITE A WAYS AWAY AND STILL OFFSHORE FROM POINT CONCEPTION
BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
AREA AFTER DAYBREAK AND BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SILVERADO BURN SCAR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 11 AM AS ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF RAIN
FROM THE CONVECTIVE COLD POOL COULD STILL IMPACT THAT AREA.

SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 7000-8000 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT SOME COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING
AND BRING THE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FEET. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 2 PM ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE RATHER MEAGER...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS WHICH COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES.

A SECONDARY TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT OUR AREA TO THE
MEXICAN BORDER AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS WE`VE SEEN THIS MORNING. SAN DIEGO COUNTY
IS LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHEST ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY...AROUND ONE-TENTH TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN DIEGO
AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

THE SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING
WITH NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW
WEEK...A VERY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BRINGING PERSISTENT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND ESSENTIALLY BE LOCKED IN THROUGH THURSDAY.
GRADIENTS WILL BE MODERATE BUT DUE TO THE LONGER DURATION OF THE
EVENT...VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
INLAND VALLEYS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST LATE NEXT WEEK BUT UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL...WITH
LIKELY PERSISTENT WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...
010945Z...MULTIPLE SCT-OVC CLOUD LAYERS BETWEEN 1000-6000 FT MSL AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
12-14Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BECOMING LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SHOWERS 14-18Z. LOCAL CIGS DOWN TO 1000 FT MSL AND 3-5 SM
VIS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. AFTER 18Z...SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS
MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FT MSL AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY SUN MORNING.

DESERTS...LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH DESERT
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE LOW
DESERTS. OTHERWISE...SW TO W WINDS 20-30 KT GUSTING TO 40-50 KT OVER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND ALONG DESERT SLOPES/ADJACENT DESERT FOOTHILLS
WILL CREATE MOD-STG UDDFS...LLWS AND ROTORS E AND NE OF THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY. VIS LOCALLY REDUCED TO 5 SM OR LESS AT TIMES IN
BLDU/HZ. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM...A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BRING
SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO
30 KT AND STEEP WAVES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE APPLE AND
     LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 6500
     FEET FOR THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR THE SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     AND OUT 30 NM...WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
     BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE
     ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.