Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCT CONVECTION SHUD CONT BUT TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SE COAST THRU
00Z AS MID LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST. SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
TONIGHT PLACING FA IN BTWN TWO FRNTL BNDRYS. EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO DSPT THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING AND MSTR REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
FA WITH THE BNDRY ACROSS NC AND NORTH OF THE FA ALONG THE APPRCHG
CDFRNT. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY AND A BIT WRMR THAN PAST FEW NITES.
LOWS U60S-L70S XCPT M70S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY
ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN
OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS.

ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN
THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK
TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS.

HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT.
BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTY...U60S-L70S SOUTH.

DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO
THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY
INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S.

MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING
N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW...
REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W.
HIGHS M80S-L90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES
OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG
IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OH VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT AND
PUSH INTO THE CWA BY TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND LOWER HUMIDITY. CONDS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU THRU
FRI AS LO PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF
THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END
MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL
BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MAS


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