Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 292007
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
407 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...AND WILL SETTLE OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLOWLY PULLING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TO SUPPORT ISO-SCT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT AND ISO
CONVECTION FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE MD/DE PORTION OF THE ERN
SHORE. CONDITIONS FARTHER SE HAVE STABILIZED EVIDENCED BY A MORE
SPARS CU FIELD. MLCAPE VALUES OVER THE PIEDMONT ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 1000-1500 J/KG...WITH MINIMAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HENCE STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE. A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED WITH MINIMAL SHEAR AND
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT THAT HAVE RECEIVED
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON COULD POTENTIALLY HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PRIMARY TREND AMONGST 12Z/29 NUMERICAL MODELS IS AN OVERALL
SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH RESPECT TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW OUR PERIOD OF SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
CONTINUITY WILL BE MAINTAINED SATURDAY WITH POPS AOB 10% AS THERE
IS LITTLE FORCING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DRIFT INTO
N/NW PORTIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A
30-50% POP IS FORECAST FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS. HIGHS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
INLAND...TO THE 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.

A BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ARRIVES FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A NRN STREAM TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
GFS/ECMWF EACH INDICATE A PRE-FRONTAL LEE-SIDE TROUGH...AND THE
GFS ADDITIONALLY DEPICTING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN WHAT IS
FORECAST TO BE A WARM/HUMID UNSTABLE AIRMASS. FORECAST POPS RANGE
FROM 20-30% OVER FAR SE PORTIONS...TO 40-50% OVER THE NW HALF OF
THE AREA. SKY CONDITION SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S N/NW...TO THE LOW/MID 80S SE...AND
LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...THEN
BECOMES SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER BY WED MORNING. EXPECT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(ALTHOUGH MON APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WED
AFTN THROUGH THU AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY THU
NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST...ANY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ANYWHERE FROM
THE SE COAST TO MOVING THE CAPE HATTERAS COASTLINE FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES AND HAVE
PREFERRED TO LEAN THE FAR EXTENDED PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST MORE TWD CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE FAR SWRN AREA OF THE FA.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S DURING THE MORE RAINY
PERIODS TUE/WED WITH A WARM-UP INTO THE LOW 80S FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK (ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES). LOWS MON NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S (ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES
WARMER AT THE BEACHES OVERNIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CU FIELD DEVELOPED QUICKLY THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CU FIELD IS BEGINNING TO THIN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. SCATTERED CONVECTION
AS FORMED IN THE VA PIEDMONT AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING SE FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AWAY FROM TERMINAL LOCATIONS. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVE IN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AND WILL NOT BE A PROMINENT TOMORROW WITH THE DRIER AIR
AROUND.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A DIURNAL INCREASE IN ONSHORE ELY WINDS HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS
AFTN WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT OVER
THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE ERN VA RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE WIND
DIRECTION BECOMES MORE SSE. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WINDS REMAIN SSE WITH AFTN/EARLY EVENING SURGES IN SPEEDS BUT WILL
THEY WILL STAY WITHIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS (I.E. GENERALLY AOB
15KT/SEAS 2-3FT/WAVES 1-2FT BUT UP TO 2-3FT DURING SURGES). SEAS
WILL REACH UP TO 4FT OUT NEAR 20NM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE OVERALL FLOW WEAKENS MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING NE FLOW BY
MID WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...BMD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.