Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 260843
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
443 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Maria will track northward off the North Carolina coast while
gradually weakening today through Wednesday. Maria will then
push east northeast and out to sea Wednesday night and Thursday.
High pressure will build into the region later Thursday through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early this morning, Hurricane Maria was located about 225 miles
SE of HAT moving north at 7 mph. Latest radar showed a few bands
of light showers well ahead of Maria, rotating onshore acrs
portions of SE VA and NE NC. Otherwise, NE winds were spreading
low level moisture and stratus (3-10 kft) into much of the CWA.

Maria will continue to push N during today, and perhaps
slightly W of due N, as an upper low drops sewd acrs FL.
Increasing moisture and some outer banded features will result
in 20-40% PoPs along and E of I-95. QPF will be minimal for
most areas, with highest amts over extrm SE VA and NE NC where
highest PoPs are fcst. Highs today in the upper 70s to lower
80s under a mostly cloudy sky. Becoming breezy along the coast
with a NE wind increasing to 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 30-35
mph possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Maria reaches about 160mi ESE of Cape Hatteras by 00z Wed,
around 150 miles E of Cape Hatteras by 12z Wed, and then
140-180 miles ENE of Cape Hatteras by 00z Thu, as some spread
remains in the guidance. NHC has Maria weakening to a tropical
storm during this time-frame. The offshore track will result in
minimal rainfall acrs SE VA/NE NC (and coastal MD to a lesser
degree), generally 0.50" or less, with the highest amts over
extrm SE VA and NE NC. There is now a good possibility for
strong wind gusts south of Cape Charles on the coastal waters,
and along the immediate coast from ORF/VA Beach to the Currituck
County beaches (including the Currituck Sound). Therefore, we
have upgraded Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning
for Cape Charles Light to the VA/NC border (656). High seas and
minor or localized moderate coastal flooding will also occur
along the coast. Will maintain PoPs of 20-40% east of I-95 Wed
(40-50% coastal NE NC Tue night/Wed), with slight chc PoPs into
the Piedmont. Wind gusts could reach 30-45 mph from around
Norfolk/VA Beach southward into coastal NE NC. The biggest
impacts will likely be from tidal flooding and beach erosion
along/near the coast. Highs on Wed will range fm the upper 70s
to lower 80s along the coast, to the mid 80s inland, after
morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

By 12z Thu, Maria is shown to move NE to around 200-260 miles
ENE of Cape Hatteras, then pushing well out to sea by late in
the day. Will carry lingering slight chc PoPs (~20%) along the
coast for primarily the morning hours. Otherwise, decreasing
clouds through the day. Highs on Thu will range fm the upper 70s
to lower 80s along the coast, to the lower to mid 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Very quiet weather expected in the extended as a positively tilted
upper trough swings across the Great Lakes and Northeastern US
Friday and Saturday.  This trough will serve to escort Maria away
from the coast and at the same time push a weak cold front through
the region on Thursday night.  This will allow drier and cooler air
to move back into the region.  Expect overnight lows in the mid to
upper 50s Thurs and Friday night with highs Friday in the mid 70s. A
secondary area of low pressure and a reinforcing cold front will
slide through the area on Saturday as the upper trough pivots off
the coast on Saturday.  But moisture will be limited with the front
and the best chance for any showers will be over the Delmarva. By
Sunday, a strong area of high pressure is building across New
England and down the Eastern Seaboard on Sunday and Monday. This
will provide dry and seasonable temperatures with highs in the
low. to mid 70s and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect MVFR/IFR cigs for mainly SBY, ORF, PHF, and ECG today
into tonight, due to increasing NE winds and low level moisture
in advance of Maria. Expect MVFR/IFR cigs at RIC mainly into
this aftn. Best chc for showers will be over ECG and ORF.

Outlook: Increasing moisture from Maria will result in a
continued 20-40% chc for showers tonight thru Wed. Locally
stronger wind speeds/gusts are expected at ORF/ECG tonight and
Wed. A cold front approaches fm the NW Thu, and pushes Maria
farther out to sea Thu night into Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
Given the track of Maria and the broadening wind field...have
expected tropical storm warning to Cape Charles VA. Given that
the track stays far enough offshore...it still does not look
like sustained TS winds will be in the bay...but there could be
a few gusts to near 35 kt for a period tonight into Wed. As
such...will maintain the SCA for this area, as well as areas
north of Cape Charles. Winds/seas will start to improve
Wednesday Night as Maria rapidly moves east. Added SCAs for
rivers and northern 2 zones over the bay.

Please monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast
track of Hurricane Maria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal departures currently 0.5 to 1 ft today as northeast to
east winds begin to increase. Expect the departure to slowly
steadily increase as Maria moves N through Wed. Expect
departures of 2 to 2.5 ft by Wednesday across the southern Bay
and areas south of Cape Henry along the ocean...w/ 1-1.5 ft
departures northern bay into the northern coastal waters. These
values are similar to what we saw last week in Jose. However...
the astronomical tide is about 0.6 ft less this week than last
week in Jose. This may keep any coastal flooding confined to
minor during the time of high tide (through Wed).

As with Jose...the main concern may end up being high surf and
potential coastal erosion. Will issue a High Surf Advisory for
the entire coastal waters starting tomorrow as the swell
associated with Maria moves into the region. Am still thinking
that nearshore waves of 8-11 ft are possible starting Tuesday
and continuing into Wednesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ025.
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ017-102.
VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ098>100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-
     634>638-650-652-654.
     Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ633-656-658.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM/JEF
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...ALB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ALB



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