Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 281901
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
301 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will linger near the Virginia North Carolina
border tonight. A cold front approaches from the northwest on
Memorial Day and stalls north of the region into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Weak S/W aloft tracking E into ern VA attm continues to bring
SHRAs/ISOLD tstms to E and SE portions of the FA.
Meanwhile...a sfc boundary remains near the VA-NC border...then
is aligned NW through wrn VA into wrn PA. Residual in-situ low
level wedge remains tough to dislodge...and w/ earlier RA
wrn/central portions...and RA now in the E...that wedge will be
tough to dislodge through the evening hours. Despite breaks of
sunshine and dewpoints in the u60s-l70s...stability parameters
and onshore winds show wedge the best...and will likely limit
convective development (w/ possible exception near-S of the VA-
NC border and W of the FA) through this evening...where best
heating/instability will linger and possible additional ISOLD-
SCT tstms may develop. Near term models and HRRR reflectively
suggest limited coverage through this evening over the bulk of
the FA...waning overnight. Otherwise...VRB clouds-mostly cloudy
tonight. Will include patchy FG overnight as well. Lows ranging
through the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will be crossing the mountains Mon morning...then
continue E Mon afternoon. Models continue to show drying over
most of the area...w/ the instability/moisture axis shifting SE
into far SE VA-NE NC...where additional SHRAS/tstms are
possible in the afternoon/evening. Partly sunny on Memorial Day
with highs in the l-m80s N to the m-u80s S (70s along the
Atlantic beaches of the eastern shore).

12Z/28 guidance continues to show that the cold front becomes
aligned parallel to WSW flow aloft...stalling immediately N of
the region to perhaps pushing into the MD Ern Shore. The chc for
aftn/evening SHRAS/tstms will diminish Tue...though will
continue w/ 20-40% PoPs in far srn and SE VA/NE NC. Highs
Tue from the u70s-l80s at the coast to the m80s inland...after
morning lows ranging through the 60s.

Little change in conditions Tue night-Wed. Upper level trough
to sharpen into the ern CONUS...though a strong enough trigger
for widespread convective development (esp Wed) ill-defined.
Maintaining PoPs (15-25%) in far SE VA-NE NC...mainly Wed
afternoon. Lows Tue night in the 60s. Highs Wed in the u70s-
l80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term period beginning Tuesday night features near normal
temperatures and generally low chances for precipitation. Weak and
poorly defined frontal boundaries affect the area and confidence in
the details of the precipitation forecast are rather low.
Thunderstorm chances Wednesday were kept relatively low as weak high
pressure builds in. A frontal boundary moves in for Thursday and
settles just off the coast Friday and Saturday. Highest POPs (30 to
40 percent) are currently set for southern portions on Friday
afternoon and evening.

High temperatures are forecast to range from 80 to 85 Wednesday and
Thursday and the upper 70s to around 80 Friday and Saturday.
Readings will be a bit lower near the coast. Lows are expected to
range from 60 to 65.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 17z...Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms were over
eastern Virginia and the Lower Eastern Shore. Activity was moving to
the northeast. A frontal boundary extended from the Atlantic along
the VA/NC border to the Piedmont then continuing as a warm front
into Ohio and Indiana. A few additional showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible late today into early this evening.
Onshore flow will promote another round of stratus and fog Monday
morning with areas of IFR especially inland areas. Conditions return
to VFR late Monday morning.

OUTLOOK...There will be a chance for thunderstorms southeast
portions Tuesday. Otherwise mainly dry weather is forecast through
Thursday with only a stray shower or thunderstorm possible. The
chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms increase on Friday
mainly in southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Patchy fog
or stratus will be possible each morning within a few hours of
sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest surface analysis places a cold front near the Virginia
and North Carolina border with high pressure centered off the
Northeast coast. The result is onshore flow north of the
boundary and south to southwest flow over the North Carolina
waters. Speeds are generally at or below 10 knots. Waves
generally 1 foot and seas 2 feet. The frontal boundary remains
in the vicinity of the North Carolina and Virginia border today
as a wave of low pressure pushes offshore late today into
tonight. Flow remains onshore at 10-15 knots today, becoming
south to southeast this evening, and then west to southwest late
tonight. Seas build to 2-3 feet, with waves of 1-2 feet. The
front lifts northward Monday as low pressure lifts into eastern
Canada. A trailing cold front stalls near the coast Monday
afternoon. Model differences with waves of low pressure and the
placement of the front/surface trough result in a challenging
wind forecast Monday and Monday night, with flow generally west
to southwest at or below 10 knots. Waves remain 1-2 feet and
seas 2-3 feet. The weak front remains near the coast Tuesday as
a stronger cold front approaches from the west. The next front
pushes across the waters Tuesday night. A lack of cold advection
expected to keep conditions sub-SCA Tuesday night. High
pressure builds into the region Wednesday, centering over the
waters on Thursday. High pressure slides offshore Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/JAO
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM



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