Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 251634
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1134 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST. DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH
ON TUESDAY COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SNOW BUT THAT IS
FAR AWAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS E MA AT 16Z WITH A FEW ELEMENTS
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT THIS
TO PUSH OFFSHORE BY 18Z. DRY SLOT AND BAND OF CLEARING SKIES
ALREADY WORKING INTO THE CT VALLEY AS SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

W-SW WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT ON LATEST OBS FROM CENTRAL
MA WESTWARD AS WELL AS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH THE BRIEF MIXING
THANKS TO SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT. WILL START TO SEE SOME CLOUDS
REDEVELOP MAINLY INLAND WITH LEFTOVER INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS H5
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATE IN THE DAY.

FORECAST ON TRACK BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT PT-MOSUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
ADVECTION DRIES OUT THE COLUMN...WITH MOST CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE
INTERIOR WHERE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT BKN
STRATO-CU. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS AS STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOWING MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
30-35 KT...WITH LOW PROB FOR NEAR WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 35-40
KT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA.

MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR AROUND 12Z...WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE
50S...THEN FALLING INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING NORTH INTO SNE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND W MA. GUSTY W WINDS DURING THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BUT REMAINING GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLC COAST WITH MILD WESTERLY FLOW
INTO NEW ENG. EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WITH HIGH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S AND NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* REMAINING DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
* TURNING COLDER FOR NEXT WEEK. STILL A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
  AROUND TUESDAY BUT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRI NIGHT AND
SETTLES OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SAT. SOME DISCREPANCY
IN MODEL FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR SAT AFTERNOON WITH ECMWF
COOLER THAN GFS...WITH 3C VS. 6C AT 925 MB. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SW FLOW ALOFT...AM OPTING FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HAVE GONE 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING 50 TO 55 SAT AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC AND FAR NORTHERN
MAINE. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND
THERE IS ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT
     MAINLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY AGAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY...FROM NW TO SE.
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION BUT MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURE.

WHAT WE ARE CONFIDENT OF IS THAT COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION. AFTER ALL...IT WILL BE THE END OF DECEMBER. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S...COULD EVEN SEE SOME UPPER
TEENS IN NORTHWEST MA LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN BY TUESDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE
PARTLY CLOUDY BUT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING BY NIGHTFALL. FOR SEVERAL
RUNS NOW...THE ECMWF HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS RUNS WHICH SUPPRESS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND
LEAVE US DRY. THE CANADIAN MODEL ALSO AGREES THAT THE LOW WILL BE
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT HAS A MUCH BROADER AREA OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE NORTH...SUCH THAT WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN
FRINGES. CLOSER INSPECTION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES LEADS ONE NOT TO
DISMISS THIS SYSTEM QUITE YET. A FEW OF THE GEFS MEMBERS HAVE LOW
PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH...OFF THE NJ COAST OR SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS. YET OTHER MEMBERS HAVE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN AND NO LOW AT ALL. HENCE...A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT SKIES COULD BECOME CLOUDY WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS A RESULT OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT COMING
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES OF SNOW FOR OUR REGION TO ACKNOWLEDGE
THE POSSIBILITY BUT LEAN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
FROM 30 TO 35.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OTHER THAN LEFTOVER MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THAT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY
18Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. W-SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOW PROB OF 40
KT GUSTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF N AND W MA.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
EARLY...HIGHEST ALONG COAST...THEN DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF WARM
FRONT MAY BE TOO FAST BY A FEW HOURS BUT WE DO EXPECT WIND SHIFT
TO S BEFORE DAYBREAK.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
MVFR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...PREFRONTAL SW WINDS ARE BELOW GALE...BUT AFTER WIND SHIFT
TO WEST...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS TO
INCREASE TO 35 KT ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.

TONIGHT...NEAR GALES OVER THE OUTER WATERS IN THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE SCA WIND GUSTS WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...DIMINISHING WIND BELOW SCA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SEAS MAY STILL BE NEAR 5 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY
SAT. SW TO W WINDS COULD STILL GUST TO 15-20 KT AT TIMES.

SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD
CAUSE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT NW TO N WINDS EXPECTED. SEAS BELOW 3 FT.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT WINDS COULD BECOME NE LATE AT
NIGHT IF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COME FARTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH MILD AIR WORKING UP THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
ONE OF OUR FOUR LONG TERM CLIMATE SITES DID SET RECORD HIGHS FOR
BOTH CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING.

THE HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...
BOS...46 AT 1101 PM
BDL...43 AT 1159 PM
ORH...53 AT 1159 PM
PVD...64 AT 1118 PM...SETS RECORD FOR DATE /PREV 60 SET IN 1990/

HIGH TEMPS SO FAR TODAY ALONG WITH THE RECORDS...
BOS...59 AT 444 AM /RECORD 65 IN 1889/
BDL...56 AT 641 AM /RECORD 64 IN 1964/
ORH...59 AT 547 AM /RECORD 60 IN 1964/
PVD...63 AT 1215 AM...TIES RECORD FOR DATE WITH 1964

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/GAF
NEAR TERM...EVT/GAF
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...KJC/GAF
MARINE...KJC/EVT/GAF
CLIMATE...EVT



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