Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 291122
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
720 AM UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AND
ISLANDS WILL BE EXITING DURING THE NEXT HOUR. CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB WILL RESULT IN MOCLDY SKIES IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PTSUNNY SKIES IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MOISTURE IS NOT AS ROBUST. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWER 60S CT VALLEY. LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RADIATING OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COASTS.  SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN INTO MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE AND POSSIBLY WED ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE THU

OVERVIEW...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND W CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOL AND WET CONDITIONS SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. A BRIEF DRYING TREND AND MILDER TEMPS
WILL FOLLOW TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...THEN
MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE LAKES WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
COOLER AND WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY THU.

SAT NIGHT...
HIGH PRES ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. GFS IS FASTEST MOVING RAIN INTO SNE
LATER SAT NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF/NAM/GGEM/UKMET KEEP RAIN TO THE WEST.
FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF LIGHT
RAIN REACHING W NEW ENG LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN INTO MON...
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LIKELY TO BE COOL AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUN FROM WEST TO EASY AS OVERRUNNING
OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEADS TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON
ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW
ENG...ALTHOUGH GFS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY MON WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE INTO WED...
WEAK HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUE WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AS MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS STILL BACK ACROSS GT LAKES.

THU...
LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID
LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL
WAVE TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

PATCHY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING IN THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTS TODAY AND
SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH
W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A FEW BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING MON AS LOW PRES
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING MON AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SCA SEAS LIKELY
FOR EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



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