Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 310011
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
711 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST WIND WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY
THIS WIND WILL ALSO CREATE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONTINUED COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT MULTIBANDED SNOW
SHOWERS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT...THOUGH SOME UPSTREAM
CONNECTION OF MOISTURE TO GEORGIAN BAY MAY ENHANCE THE INTENSITY OF
A STREAMER OR TWO. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO NEAR
THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH AN
INCH OR LESS EAST OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE SNOW BELTS.

FOR TONIGHT COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. AIR TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 925 HPA WILL BOTTOM
OUT AT -20C SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND -24C EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH
EASTWARD...ERODING MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY ACROSS WNY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS NORTHWEST WIND WILL ALSO CREATE
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL PLUMMET TO
AROUND MINUS 10 DEGREES AND LOWER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS ACROSS INLAND SW NYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR SUCH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING A FAIR
WEATHER DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE
CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM AND 12KM NAM BOTH LINGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE LOWER GENESEE VALLEY ON A NORTHWEST WIND. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FLYING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE GENESEE VALLEY WARMING ALOFT AND SHIFTING WINDS LATER IN THE DAY
CARRYING ANY ACTIVITY NORTHWARD OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

LATER SATURDAY A SURFACE TROUGH WILL NEAR THE REGION FROM THE UPPER
LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY CREATE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE ERIE TO GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES NEAR THE LAKE
BEFORE THE DAY ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL EASE ITS
WAY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY USHERING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
ROUND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH MAY BE BRIEFLY MORE
NUMEROUS/ENHANCED EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE LAKES...WITH THIS PARTICULARLY SO DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHICH HAS MORE OPEN WATER. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH PERHAPS
AN INCH OR TWO FALLING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS...THE FRONT MAY ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS BUFKIT
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
LOW-LEVEL IN MOISTURE...WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN THESE MARGINAL FOR
THE FORMATION OF ICE CRYSTALS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY FLAGS JUST YET...THE POSSIBILITY
DOES APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO BE WORTH MENTIONING A CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS/ZFP/HWO.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME LEFTOVER SCATTERED LINGER SNOW SHOWERS
AND/OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...BEFORE GIVING
WAY TO A GRADUALLY ADVANCING SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOW ATTENDANT TO A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN OVER CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SOMEWHERE AROUND
MIDDAY...BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITHIN THIS REGION...AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY SUNSET...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE WILL EXHIBIT A MARKED NON-DIURNAL
TREND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH READINGS RISING INTO THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...
BEFORE DROPPING OFF AGAIN FOLLOWING THE FROPA AS THE FRESH ARCTIC
AIRMASS ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THAT READINGS WILL HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET CONSIDERABLY MORE INTERESTING FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OHIO VALLEY LOW STRENGTHENS
AND SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THIS SYSTEM
ALL ALONG...THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFICULTIES IN PINNING DOWN ITS EXACT TRACK...THOUGH THIS SAID THE
12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS CONTINUED THE GENERAL NORTHWARD SHIFT SEEN IN
TODAY/S EARLIER 00Z AND 06Z RUNS. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GENERALLY
RANGES FROM A TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TO ONE ACROSS THE
VIRGINIAS...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING THE FORMER AND THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF
INDICATING THE LATTER. WITH THE NAM APPEARING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
NORTHERN OUTLIER AT THIS JUNCTURE...FEEL THAT A CONSENSUS OF THE
GLOBAL /AND USUALLY MORE RELIABLE/ MODELS IS THE SAFER BET TO FOLLOW
AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST TRACK.

USING THE ABOVE AND WPC AS A GENERAL GUIDE...HAVE BROUGHT THE
STEADIER SYNOPTIC SNOWS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...WITH THESE NOW REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO AND OSWEGO COUNTY. CORRESPONDINGLY...HAVE
ALSO BUMPED UP ACCUMULATIONS A BIT...WITH THE BULK OF THESE FOCUSING
ON SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS PARTICULAR TIME FRAME...3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH AMOUNTS
THEN LOWERING TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS...AND THEN TO AROUND AN INCH OR SO ALONG
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND OSWEGO COUNTY. AFTER THAT...AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO MAY THEN FALL MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY.

PUTTING ALL THIS TOGETHER IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUNDAY`S EXPECTED
SNOWFALL TOTALS...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY
GENERATE A PROLONGED ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS FALLING
OVER A 24 TO 30 HOUR PERIOD. THIS STATED...ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS FURTHER
NORTHWARD WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WARNING-CRITERIA
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A SOUTHWARD SHIFT
WOULD LIKELY SUPRESS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE AND LINGERING UNCERTAINTY/LACK OF CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WHICH WILL PULL MORE ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH MORE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
MONDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN
READINGS MAY WELL DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED...WEAK LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD LIFT
NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY FALL APART ALTOGETHER ON TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE
OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE LATTER THEN BRINGING A BRIEF PUSH OF
"MILDER" AIR AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM...RENEWED ARCTIC COLD AND AT LEAST SOME LAKE ONTARIO
LAKE SNOWS SHOULD RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING MULTI
BANDED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LAKE ERIE. A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ADVANCING
FROM THE WEST WILL REDUCE THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THIS DRY AIR PASSES EXPECT MUCH OF THE TAF
REGION TO RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCSH IN THE KROC
TAF SITE...THOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE VFR TOMORROW MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS NEAR LAKE ERIE BY THE CLOSE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY....AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. LIKELY SNOW TOWARDS THE NY/PA STATE LINE.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST
OF THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TOMORROW...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS
ON THE LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A FRESHEN WESTERLY WIND BEHIND THIS FEATURE TO
AGAIN PRODUCE SCA ON LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006>008-012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...THOMAS/WCH
MARINE...THOMAS






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