Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 261429
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
929 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
FAIR...DRY...AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL CROSS WELL TO OUR NORTH WHILE SWINGING A
COLD FRONT AND SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A
RETURN TO MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING KBUF SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERSION AROUND 870MB OR AROUND
4000FT...WITH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING CLOUDS TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING SOME
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE IN THE CLEAR WHILE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ARE STUCK
UNDER SOME UPSLOPE AND SLOWLY ERODING CLOUD COVER. A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH INTO LAKE ONTARIO AND POINTS NORTH...HIGHER CLOUD
COVER CAN BE FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BUT THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY TO THE
NORTH.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF DECREASING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN NY...WITH PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS FURTHER EAST TOWARD
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST WARM
ADVECTION...CLEARING SKIES...AND SUBSEQUENT INSOLATION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS AROUND THE 40 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE
CLOUDY TUG HILL PLATEAU.

TONIGHT...THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND FINGER LAKES...HOWEVER CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES AS SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL CROSS OUR REGION. THE FRONT WILL BRING
ABOUT A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF FORCING CENTERED AROUND MIDNIGHT THAT WILL
SHIFT A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT IN
TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO BUMP POPS
TO THE LIKELY RANGE. QPF IS ONE TO TWO TENTHS WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL COOL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FALLING DOWN
TO AROUND -5C BY SUNDAY EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY
MORNING MAY END WITH A MIX OF SOME WET SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRIER AIR BRINGING SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE DAY AS
COLD AIR DEEPENS ALOFT THEN DOWN INTO THE 20S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK LEADING INTO THE NEW YEAR WILL BE
TOWARD BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME
WITH DRY AIR AS AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS.

ON MONDAY COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THIS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A DRY
AIRMASS...SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF SHEAR WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT ANY LAKE RESPONSE OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS. ON TUESDAY A WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FOLLOWING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGING.
THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A MINOR
LAKE RESPONSE EAST OF THE LAKES AS 850MB TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE
NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC WITH A GENERAL COLD WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME LAKE RESPONSE EAST OF THE LAKES
DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2500-3500FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. EXPECT AN IMPROVING
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MVFR CIGS
WILL HOLD ON FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC
UPLIFT ON WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE LAST VESTIGES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS ON THE
LAKES TODAY...HOWEVER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN FRESH ENOUGH
THIS MORNING TO WARRANT LEAVING CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
PLACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND LOWER NIAGARA
RIVERS...WHICH HAVE BEEN DROPPED AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
SUFFICIENTLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES SATURDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN SATURDAY EVENING AS A RELATIVELY WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM GEORGIAN BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE WEST SUNDAY...LEADING TO BUILDING WAVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE LAKE. SHORTER FETCH SHOULD KEEP LAKE ERIE
ZONES OUT OF ADVISORIES THIS WEEKEND. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS HIGH WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT WARMING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED RAIN AND SNOW MELT ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION AND THIS
COUPLED WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
PUSHED THE BLACK RIVER ABOVE ACTION STAGE AT BOONVILLE. THE RIVER
CRESTED OVERNIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP BELOW ACTION
STAGE TONIGHT. THE CREST WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN TO WATERTOWN BY
SATURDAY MORNING...WHERE THE RIVER SHOULD CREST JUST ABOVE ACTION
STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD/ZAFF
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...JJR/WOOD







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.