Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 221144
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER
WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING DISPLAY THE AREA LARGELY
RAINFREE...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
NYS. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST FOG IS FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. THIS FOG WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM...THOUGH
THE MUGGY FEEL TO THE AIR WILL REMAIN.

AFTER THE MORNING FOG DISSIPATES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL NOW BE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...BUT SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL AND WEAKER RIPPLES OF ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY COULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
WILL AGAIN FOCUS THE HIGHEST OF THE CHANCE POPS TOWARDS THE EAST
WHERE GREATER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG A VERY WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE STATE LINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE
SUN...AND THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW DRIFTING TOWARDS NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. WITH NO STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE TO
THE AIRMASS EXPECT AGAIN PATCHES OF FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SW NYS AND TO AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AIR TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN SIMILAR
TO THE PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE
ON OUR WEATHER MAP SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE
LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/RGEM/GFS/SREF HAVE THIS FEATURE ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 18Z SATURDAY...AND NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER BY 00Z.
THIS SUBTLE FEATURES SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THESE
GENERALLY AHEAD (OR SOUTH OF) THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN ENE FLOW
WILL PROBABLY HELP SHADOW LAKE ONTARIO AND THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE.

AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
SURFACE PRESSURE TO ASSERT ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND ON
SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN FOR THE MOST PART DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT WARMER
WITH ITS TEMPERATURES WHICH BRINGS IT INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
GFS. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WARM STRETCH
OF WEATHER FOR WESTERN NEW YORK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 12Z LIFR TO MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z...THOUGH SOME LOW CIGS MAY
LAG FOR AN HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PASSING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER COULD
BRING BRIEF IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN A DOWNPOUR. FOR THESE
SHOWERS WILL INCLUDE A VCSH IN THE KART TAF SITE DUE TO THE
SCATTEREDNESS OF THE ACTIVITY BUT NOT TRY TO TIME ANY REDUCED VSBYS
WITHIN ANY DOWNPOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AND ISOLATED IFR ELSEWHERE IN PATCHES OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DISSIPATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NEW YORK STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ON THE LAKES TODAY. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND EVENING. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE LAKES SATURDAY
WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR/APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.