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000
FXUS61 KBUF 231227
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
827 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL START TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HUMID
AIR WILL KEEP THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A BIT BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS ALL BUT FALLEN APART ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AT 12Z.
EXPECTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS
LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE
FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED. INHIBITING
FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL INCLUDE THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA BEFORE PEAK HEATING
OCCURS...0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF GENERALLY AROUND 30KT AND CAPE VALUES
OF ONLY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. THAT SAID...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES AND THE GREATEST OMEGA IS WITHIN THE
LOWER MOIST LAYER...INDICATING EXCLUSIVE WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNPOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE MOVING
RIGHT ALONG...THUS LIMITING THE RISK FOR ANY FLOODING DESPITE THE
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PRESENT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...THEN START
FALLING BACK LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER 60S ALONG
THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE SHARP RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DRY...BUT COOLER WEATHER TO
WRAP-UP THE WORK WEEK. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THURSDAY WITH
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS...BUT A BIT MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...REBOUNDING TO 75 TO 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AN AMPLIFYING EAST
COAST 500MB TROUGH FORECASTED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WILL BRING
BACK A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT FOR SATURDAYS FORECAST WITH MODELS NOT IN
ALIGNMENT ON THE INITIAL UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 12Z GFS IS FASTEST BRINGING IN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS DELAY THIS. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY ACROSS WNY BUT OVER ALL FEEL THE DAY WILL END UP
BEING DRY.

BETTER AGREEMENT DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHERE MODELS SHIFT
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WITH EACH OF THESE
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE FEATURED THE
HIGHEST POPS ON MONDAY WHERE THE BEST MODEL ALIGNMENT IS FOUND IN
THE 500MB PATTERN WITH THE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE OVER NEW YORK WITH A
CHANCE OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID 70S NEXT WEEK WHERE WE
TYPICALLY WOULD EXPECT NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.
THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED CONDITIONS OF LOWER CEILINGS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE MORNING IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR. AFTER THIS...VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NW FLOW. SOME OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS MAY REMAIN HIGH INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...HENCE HAVE
HELD MVFR CEILINGS IN AT KJHW THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR IFR/MVFR
IN PATCHY SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH
MORNING.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKES TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MID MORNING...AND BECOME
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON
LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING IN THIS FLOW. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WAVES 2
TO 3 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BOTH LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL LESSEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WAVES WILL
DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM