Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 141800
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
100 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Clipper storm system will be east of the area early this
morning. This will allow a weak area of high pressure to move
across the region this afternoon. THe next clipper will cross
the region Friday into Friday night then lake effect snow
lingering across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large cluster of lake effect snow showers from Lorain County
east to Ashtabula county continue to shift east with time as
mean flow across Lake Erie shifts. Eventually, flow will push
activity up the lake by this evening. Made minor changes to
account for precipitation and to hourly temperatures.

Previous Discussion...
Just waiting on the last of the snow to decrease and move
eastward through 12Z. The expectation is that we will be able to
cancel most of the warning and advisory by 12Z. Will monitor
the band off the lake as it drifts eastward in the wake of the
clipper. At most another inch or 2 of snow at a few locations.

We then get a weak area of high pressure into the area this
afternoon with any remaining lake snow shifting back into
western NY by midnight. Currently it does not look like it will
become all that organized so significant accumulations look
unlikely. However as always the case with west to southwest flow
we will need to monitor locations in the vicinity of Northeast,
PA.

The next clipper will move toward the area on Friday with snow
chances increasing Friday afternoon into the evening. This low
will track further to the north across Ontario so lighter
accumulations are anticipated. Worst case scenario brings the
snowbelt an advisory.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages today into
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The latest arctic surge behind the latest clipper will produce lake
enhanced that will taper down by Sat. However, a band of warm
advection snow is expected to develop over the snowbelt for Sat then
should dissipate into Sat night as drier air pushes in from the
southwest. Accumulation looks to range from 2 to 5 inches in Erie co
PA Fri night tapering down to little or none southwest of a LPR to
CAK line. On Sat, the accumulation in the snowbelt will range from
little to around an inch in NW PA.

Below normal temps Fri night into Sat will start to moderate some by
Sat night as the warm advection starts to occur at the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models briefly show the upper trough that has dominated the area
becoming more zonal and progressive for the period but also have
differences. Thus, not confident in how things will play out as
weaker s/w troughs move across the region affecting the timing of
precip. Temps Sun and Mon are borderline for either rain or snow. So
due to the marginally cold enough temps and weak system, don`t see
much accumulation if mostly snow occurs. Model consensus shows
enough colder air moving in Tue into Tue night to change all precip
to snow for mainly just lake effect snow showers Tue night and
Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Lake effect snow showers continue to move across Cleveland,
Akron-Canton, and Youngstown at this time. Mean wind flow
continues to shift toward a westerly and then southwesterly
direction and this will push the scattered snow shower activity
up the lake to the northeast. As the snow showers end from west
to east, ceilings will improve as well. This will be short lived
as a low pressure system moves east into the central Great Lakes
forcing a cold front east across the area on Friday. The low and
front will bring a swath of light snow to the area at the very
end of the forecast period. Expecting MVFR conditions with the
snow tomorrow afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR possible Friday night across the area and again
Sunday night into Monday. MVFR also possible in northeast Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure will continue to build over the lower lakes
today. Wind observations from the area late this morning showed
sustained speeds of 15 knots or less, which should support waves
under 4 feet. Winds will lessen through the afternoon. The next
clipper will move across the lakes Fri into Fri night with SW
winds becoming WNW while increasing to 20 to 30 knots. Winds
will diminish Sat but wind direction a little uncertain as a
front sets up near the lake by Sat evening and hangs there thru
Sun. Will stay with superblend guidance which show mostly a
south wind Sat night and Sun turning SW then West Sun night thru
Mon as a weak cold front is expected to push east thru the
lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Adams/Jamison


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.