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000
FXUS61 KCLE 110552
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
152 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT AND DRAG
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR 930 UPDATE

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PC OVERNIGHT.
WENT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO CONTINUITY WHICH IS NEAR TO A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR TUESDAY
EXPECT CLOUDS TO MOVE IN QUICKLY. MOISTURE STREAMING IN ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL
EVENTUALLY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE THIS IN THE GRAPHICS
BUT WILL NOT BE IN THE TEXT FORECAST. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
CLOSE BUT THE ECMWF IS COLDEST TRANSITIONING THE RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW PRECIP BEGINNING AS ALL RAIN TUESDAY
EVENING CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. GOOD
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF ZR BEFORE THE CHANGE. TRANSITION WILL TAKE
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING HOWEVER AS MODELS REALLY JUST SHOW NWRN AND
POSSIBLY THE NRN FRINGE OF COUNTIES CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE LOW COLD AIR WILL COME IN QUICKLY
CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...WILL MAINTAIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF ZR IN THE GRAPHICS AND TEXT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HANG
ONTO LIKELY POPS SNOW BELT WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT WILL DROP AS
MOISTURE EXITS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DRY
BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH A SHORT LIVED ARCTIC INTRUSION ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD RECOVER ON FRIDAY AS A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. NORMALLY IN THIS PATTERN IN MID MARCH I
WOULD FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 50S BUT WE WILL
HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND TO MELT SO WILL FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 WITH A VARYING AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...
PROBABLY AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ACTUALLY IT
MAY JUST BE A TROUGH...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...V
EVENTUALLY GETTING COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR ALL SNOW SHOWERS LATER.

ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO MINIMIZE THE
THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THOUGH AS ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE
FRONT. NOT SURE IF THE SYSTEM WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA RELATIVELY
QUICKLY OR TURN INTO A SNOW STORM. UNFORTUNATELY IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
WE WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM REGARDLESS SO EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL BE A COLD SAINT PATRICKS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 12Z...POSSIBLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN NW OHIO. AS THIS OCCURS...VISIBILITIES
COULD DROP IN BR TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY AT TOL/FDY WHERE SNOWMELT
IS CONTRIBUTING MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. NOT EXPECTING FOG
BUT CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE IT OUT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE NAM. EVENTUALLY WILL SEE RAIN
BEGIN AT ALL SITES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AVIATION CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING AS WE TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR BECOMING WIDESPREAD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT. NON
VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL GRADUALLY RELAX AS THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG
ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY...PROBABLY IN THE MORNING. THE WIND WILL
VEER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. A PANHANDLE HOOK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND TRACK ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE WIND ON LAKE ERIE ALWAYS GETS STRONGER
THAN THE GUIDANCE WITH THESE LOWS AND WE SHOULD APPROACH GALE FORCE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS
FAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN BY THURSDAY... IT WILL RETREAT ON FRIDAY
AS A WARM FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR OHZ010>014-089.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR OHZ003-006>009-017>019.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ020>023-029>031.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OHZ027-028-036-037.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KOSARIK