Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 231914
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
314 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017
High pressure stretching from New York south across Pennsylvania
and into the Carolinas will move off the East Coast tonight.
This will allow a warm front to lift north of the area early
Friday. An upper level low will drift across the Central Lakes
over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As expected clouds have really struggled to make it over the
area this afternoon. Mid level clouds approaching the I-75
corridor continue to fall apart. However...the clouds should
start to make some progress tonight as the surface high moves
off the east coast. By daybreak skies should be mostly cloudy
all areas. The models continue to have differing ideas about how
much if any precip occurs overnight. The last SREF and NAM
remain the driest and confine precip chances to mainly NW PA
toward 09z. The other guidance including the GFS and ECMWF
continue to show more precip with much higher chances overnight.
Given how dry it as the surface will trend toward the drier
solutions. Surface dewpoints remain in the single digits some
areas so this seems reasonable. This thinking also matches up
with earlier forecasts. Will have chance pops about as far south
as the U.S. 30 corridor but really think only the northern tier
of OH counties plus NW PA have a realistic shot for measurable
Temps are also a challenge tonight. Readings currently vary
considerably with a lake breeze already thru BKL and heading
toward CLE. We already know temps are going to warm overnight
but the challenge is figuring out how much of a drop off there
will be after sunset. For now will allow a 5 to 10 degree drop
before the warm front arrives and readings start to rebound.
This would put most areas on the high side of guidance.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Spring like weather will return to the area. The next 36 hours
or so should be dry as the surface baroclinic zones moves off
well to the north. Will begin to bring in precip chances on
Saturday but even then the southeast end of the area could
remain dry well into Saturday night. Will eventually need high
precip chances late Saturday night through Sunday. By that time
surface dewpoints will be well into the 50s. There could be some
thunder on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Already
had a mention in the forecast and that seems reasonable. It
should start to dry out from southwest to northeast on Sunday
night but the evening hours should be wet...especially in the
Temps will be tricky during the period and depend quite a bit on
how much precip develops on Saturday. Readings could make a run
toward the upper 60s in the east...especially if there are a few
peaks on sunshine.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Active weather pattern with a period of above normal temperatures
expected in the long term period. Low pressure is expected to be
centered over the eastern Great Lakes by Monday morning, exiting the
region. A few lingering showers are possible, especially across the
eastern part of the forecast area, with slight chance/chance pops
reflected in the forecast. Another phasing low will track into the
Great Lakes/Ohio valley region Monday night through Tuesday with
another shot of rain by Monday night, reflected in the grids with
high chance/likely pops. High pressure will settle southeast across
the Great Lakes by Tuesday night, with generally dry conditions
expected as the associated cold front from the Mon. night/Tue. low
get shunted south along the Ohio River. This is expected to bring
dry conditions to the region from Wednesday through Thursday. Precip
chances will increase again just beyond the forecast period as low
pressure moves out of the Plains into the region by next
Friday/Saturday. Above normal temps in the upper 50s/low 60s
expected Monday and Tuesday, with a slight cool down to near
normal temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s for Wednesday and
.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
High pressure centered east of the area will continue to push
eastward away from the region over the first several hours of
the TAF period. Low pressure will approach the region from the
west, with a warm front lifting northward into the region late
tonight. Showers are possible from west to east across the area
after 06Z, but hi-res guidance continues to indicate fairly
scattered/isolated activity that should move through
quickly, within a 1 to 3 hour period at any given site. Some
MVFR is possible with the showers, but given low
coverage/potential, will go with VFR ceilings with the precip.
Some MVFR ceilings possible after 12Z Friday as moisture rich
airmass lifts through the region. Winds will veer to the
southwest by tomorrow morning with some gusts 20-25 mph possible
towards the end of the period.
OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR Saturday lingering into Sunday.
Lake is expected to be relatively quiet through Thursday night and
then begin to increase in intensity from the south to southwest
through Friday. Flow suggests winds will keep highest waves away
from the nearshore waters to avoid small craft advisories at this
time. Winds diminish to light southerly over the weekend but begin
to increase slightly again Saturday night as a backdoor cold front
begins to push south across the lake. Cold front will stall over the
lake and lift north as a warm front Sunday but winds remain light