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000
FXUS63 KFSD 032348
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
548 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL BE LETTING THE ADVISORY GO AT 3 PM FOR THE SOUTH DAKOTA SIDE AS
VISIBILITIES ARE UP AND WINDS WILL ONLY GET LIGHTER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WILL LET SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA CONTINUE THROUGH 0Z AS
VISIBILITIES ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT 1 TO 3 MILES AROUND THE BUFFALO
RIDGE.

A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING A LITTLE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED BUT WILL
STILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES TO SOME DEGREE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN DROP TO OR A
LITTLE BELOW 10 MPH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES JUST LOW ENOUGH DOWN
HIGHWAY 14 TO NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. EXPECTING LOWS FROM AROUND
5 BELOW IN THE NORTH TO 5 ABOVE IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW FELL.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT A MORE
GENERAL 10 TO 20 MPH OR SO IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL KEEP THE DAY
PRETTY DARN COLD THOUGH SO WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS WIND CHILLS LIKELY AT OR A LITTLE BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE
DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HIGHS WERE
RAISED A BIT DUE TO LITTLE OR NO SNOW. LOOKING AT HIGHS NEAR 20 FROM
YANKTON TO SIOUX CITY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLD START TO THE EXTENDED WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE
AREA LEADING TO A COLD NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.  WITH THE
GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST...FRESH SNOWCOVER...AND
925 HPA TEMPS AROUND -20C  HAVE DROPPED FORECAST LOWS IN THE EAST.
WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STEADY OUT IF NOT EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY.  THEREFORE...TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STRONG CHINOOK PATTERN SETS UP THEREAFTER WITH NICE WARMING
EXPECTED.  WITH THE HUDSON BAY LOW WEAKENING....AREA REMAINS UNDER
WARM WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.  HAVE NUDGE FORECAST HIGHS UPWARDS ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WAS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH REMAINING
SNOW COVER.  WAVE EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH ON NORTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  WHILE MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
SUNDAY MORNING.  ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR 6-8 HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WITH GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS...STILL ERRED TOWARDS
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

BOLSTERED HIGHS MORE ON THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME
WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. 850 HPA TEMPS FORECASTED BY THE ECMWF
ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS...AND WITH
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW AM NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT STRATUS
POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE VALUES ARE TOO COOL COMPARED TO TEMPS ALOFT
AND LIMITED SNOW COVER...SO HAVE SIDED TOWARDS THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN MVFR LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY
BY AROUND SUNSET...AND WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS
RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION. NEXT FEATURE IN IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE
SECONDARY COLD PUSH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY AROUND 12Z...
AND CLEARING THE SOUTHERN AREAS AROUND 18Z. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG
WITH GROWTH OF MIXED LAYER WILL INCREASE WINDS AGAIN WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AGAIN LIKELY DURING THE LATER MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. FOR THE TIME...HAVE NOT ADDED MENTION OF ANY FLURRIES
AROUND THE TIME OF INCREASED MOISTURE IN BOUNDARY DURING THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS...AND KEPT ANY CEILINGS TO THE LOWER END
VFR.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ038>040.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-
     072-080-081.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN