Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 012013

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
313 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Ridge of high pressure extending southwest through southwest
Minnesota into northeast Nebraska keeping winds down along and east
of that line. To the west southeast winds are a little stronger with
gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Along and east of this line strato cumulus is
fairly widespread, but some drier air across Minnesota is working
southwest and will likely gradually erode the cloud cover through
the night. The challenge will be where the squeeze zone between the
dry air to the west and the invading dry air from the northeast will
end up. For now leaning towards Interstate 29 into northwest Iowa
and the last to clear any cloud cover. In fact northwest Iowa and
far southeast SD likely to remain mostly cloudy through the night.
So, with a combination of winds to the west and clouds to the east
lows will be mild and mainly in the 50s. The ridge axis will shift a
bit farther east tomorrow with areas along and west of Interstate 29
likely seeing southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph. Temperatures will
also climb a few more degrees and reach the 70s in most spots with
some lower 80s in south central SD.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Another seasonally warm and windy day is expected across the region
on Monday, ahead of an approaching upper level system. With surface
low pressure deepening over the central and northern High Plains,
the strong surface gradient will allow winds to increase to near
advisory levels west of I-29. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be likely,
especially across south central SD in the afternoon. While winds
will be lighter to the east, an overall breezy day can be expected.
Good warm air advection despite an increase of mid and high clouds
should result in highs within a few degrees of 80 in south central
SD and the Missouri Valley. Elsewhere, highs will be in the 70s.

Good moisture return and isentropic lift across the western half of
the region as the large upper low barrels east northeast on Monday
night will allow showers and thunderstorms to become increasingly
likely along and west of I-29 overnight. Frontal boundary gradually
tracks across eastern SD on Tuesday, with additional showers and
storms becoming more widespread ahead of the front. As the upper low
lifts into southern Canada Tuesday night and the front exits the
area Wednesday morning, showers and storms will dissipate. Latest
model runs are quite a bit faster in moving the rain out of the area
compared to 24 hours ago, so did speed things up, but may see the
entire area dry by mid morning Wednesday.

Cooler temperatures return Tuesday and Wednesday with clouds and
rainfall blanketing the region. Colder under the influence of
northwest flow behind the front will cap highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s on Thursday and Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

VFR conditions through the period. Scattered to possibly briefly
broken MVFR clouds closer to Spencer and Storm Lake Iowa.




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