Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 261427
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
827 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOSED LOW IS
VENTURING FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND IS DRAGGING A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER DOWN ALONG THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THAN FIRST
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE... EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STACKED LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY BY GENERATING BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ELEVATED WIND WILL ONCE AGAIN REQUIRE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. IN ADDITION THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WILL BE REPLACED WITH A RED FLAG WARNING BASED ON LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AGAIN. SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION. BASED ON
THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OF THE LOW THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY
THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE PUSHED ACROSS THE BORDER THIS MORNING.
WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

BY TONIGHT THE LOW WILL HAVE SLIPPED INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
ALLOWING THE WIND TO RELAX FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT STRONG WIND FOR SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY PUTTING NORTHEAST
MONTANA UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE HOT
DESERT AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR TO THE
EAST WILL ONCE AGAIN MEANDER OVER NEMONT. THE BOUNDARY MIGHT BE
THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. BUT MOSTLY
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DRY AND WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY. SCT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING AS UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC WITH DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES. IN THE WEST AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL PULL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. HOWEVER NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WITH RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST WILL DEFLECT
MOISTURE KEEPING CWA DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME SUGGESTION
OF WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE LATE NEXT WEEK MAY BRING THE
MOISTURE EAST BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT TO THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORECAST YET.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE HEAT
AT BAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. MVFR CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN CELINGS FOR WOLF
POINT AND POSSIBLY SIDNEY THROUGH 18Z BUT SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY
THEN. STACKED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL KEEP
BREEZY WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. TFJ


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ135>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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