Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 251637
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
937 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPDATE...
AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY WILL
MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6 AND 8
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING CAN BE REALIZED BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT COULD NOT TAKE
MUCH CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE A MARKED
POP IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 50 DEGREES OR BETTER
CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM ABOUT ZORTMAN TO WINNETT WITH LESSER
CONFIDENCE FURTHER NORTHEAST. CLOUD COVER AND COOLER 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL MEAN HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR THE CANADIAN AND
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER REGIONS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD WARMTH...EXISTS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AS THE LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. THE EFFECTS FROM THIS CHANGE IN FLOW
PATTERN IS ALREADY EVIDENT AS LOW CLOUDS BECOME REPLACED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS RIDE
UP...AROUND AND DOWN THE RIDGE TOP.

MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT RESULTING IN A HIGH LEVEL OF
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO KEEP PRECIP AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

FORECAST CHALLENGE THEN BECOMES HOW HIGH THE DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB. AS MODELS TEND TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
ACCEPTING SUCH UNUSUALLY WARM EVENTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...FELT
IT WAS WARRANTED TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MODEL
CONSENSUS. WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE MONDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN
OUR SW CWA REACHING WELL INTO THE MID-60S. EVEN THE DAY BEFORE AND
AFTER THAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN USUAL UNDER THE
STRONG WESTERN STATES RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ALL SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED TO MELT AND ICE COVERED RIVERS HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF
BREAKING UP...LEADING TO POSSIBLE ICE JAMS.

LATE TUESDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BECOME FLATTENED A BIT BY A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. FOR NOW...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL LEAD SIMPLY TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST BY SOUTHWARD
STRENGTHENING HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS WILL START A TREND OF
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PRAIRIES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH MONTANA FOR A SLIGHT DROP
IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE VERY WARM READINGS OF TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS CANADA.

BRIEF REBOUND OF THE RIDGE OCCURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. THIS WAVE
PHASES WITH A STRONGER WAVE ROUNDING THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND
PULLING ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER MODELS
ARE TRENDING TO THE EAST WITH BOTH THESE FEATURES...RESULTING IN
A POTENTIALLY WARMER AND DRIER WEEKEND THEN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE TRENDED DOWN WITH POPS AND UP WITH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH MID CLOUDS IN THE REGION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT AND EVENING HOURS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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