Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
FXUS65 KGGW 240827
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
227 AM MDT WED AUG 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Fri...
A vertically stacked upper low currently in southern
Saskatchewan will move to Manitoba today. This will put Montana in
a cool NW flow aloft. Wrap around moisture on the back side of the
low will stay primarily over Saskatchewan today. However, a
shortwave rotating around the west and southwest side of the low
will move across Northeast Montana this afternoon and bring some
moisture south which will combine with a somewhat unstable
atmosphere for a chance of showers over parts of the region. Tight
surface gradient will keep gusty north to northwest going today.
Will keep Lake Wind Advisory in effect until this evening for Fort
High pressure will build into the area tonight quickly diminishing
the winds and partially clearing the skies. Look for a cool night
with lows in the 40s in most areas. High pressure will remain over
the area on Thursday and clear to partly cloudy skies will allow
for more sun and warmer temperatures.
The next shortwave trough in NW flow aloft will drop south across
Alberta Thursday Night and Montana on Friday with a cold front.
Models bring enough moisture with this system for a chance of
showers on Friday. Forrester
.LONG TERM...Fri night through Wed...
The extended forecast period is dominated by a fairly progressive
weather pattern which is expected to provide only fleeting chances
for some scattered precipitation across portions of northeast
Montana. Daily temperatures are not expected to fluctuate very
much given that the progressive nature of the flow aloft will
basically keep the warmer temperatures well to our south and the
cooler temperatures well to our north.
Overall synoptic flow shows good model agreement. The
inconsistencies in the resultant model precip amounts and
placement therefore lie in the subtle smaller-scale details, which
will eventually get worked out over time. At any rate, the
extended forecast looks to be fairly uneventful, which for this
time of year could easily result in some relatively comfortable
late summer days. BMickelson
As the upper-level low pressure system continues to spin through
southern Saskatchewan, strong gusty west winds will prevail across
northeast Montana. Would expect daytime mixing to allow 20g30 kt
winds to reach the surface again. Also, low ceilings will
introduce MVFR conditions primarily through most of the day.
After sunset, expect winds to diminish and sky conditions to
improve back to VFR. BMickelson
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening For Fort Peck
Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern