Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 010851
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
251 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOT...DRY SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MONTANA. THIS HOT AIR MASS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF
SASKATCHEWAN. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE FRONT AS
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 MPH. WILL ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FOR FORT PECK LAKE FROM NOON THROUGH 9 PM TODAY. RH WILL FALL INTO
THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINS BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY HAS REDUCED THE FIRE DANGER TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR TODAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. THAT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ALLOWING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. WEATHER
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO MONTANA. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD KICKS OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT HAVING AN UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ALLOWING THE RIDGE AXIS TO TRANSLATE FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. PACIFIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LOOK TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK LOOK TO BE A SURE
BET...THOUGH TIMING OF EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
WILL ALLOW FOR EXTRA FORECAST DETAIL TO BE ADDED IN TIME. FOR NOW
KEPT A BROAD BRUSH OF CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

AS 00Z ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHTS EXHIBIT INCREASING RELATIVE SPREAD
DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...FORECAST DROPPED OFF AND SO
POPS/TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. DO
EXPECT BETTER HANDLE ON THIS PERIOD AS IT ENTERS THE FORWARD PART
OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY AND CONSENSUS ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST
WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z THIS AFTERNOON
AND 03Z THIS EVENING. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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