Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 010851
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
251 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ONE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. THE
NEXT TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE YUKON TODAY AND BRING A
STRONG COLD FRONT INTO MONTANA THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH HAS SOME LINGERING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY AS NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

LOOK FOR A LULL TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT DIVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE THE NORTHWEST WINDS
STRONGER THAN TODAY. WILL KEEP A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SOME AREAS WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THE COLD FRONT. WHILE 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -2C THURSDAY MORNING...
GOOD MIXING WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND MOIST
LAYER STRUGGLES TO REACH AS COLD AS -10C WHICH IS NEEDED FOR ICE
CRYSTALS. GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS... WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE
AS RAIN IN MOST AREAS. WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LITTLE ROCKIES.

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING... MANY AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
WARMER AIR QUICKLY RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM NUNAVUT THROUGH
MANITOBA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A LARGE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
CALIFORNIA AND ITS INFLUENCE SPREADS OUT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA SETS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UP STREAM THE FLOW BENDS BACK OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY AND WARM SLIGHTLY
AND THE WARMER... STABLE SIDE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAINTAINS
CONTROL OVER THE AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD... MODEL CONFIDENCE BREAKS DOWN AND GOES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MESOSCALE FEATURES. AFTER A WEAK RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY MORE CHAOS SNEAKS INTO THE FLOW.
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FROM SHORTWAVES OCCUR FROM HERE ON. FLOW
MAY GAIN A SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL PATTERN WHICH FARTHER INCREASES THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FROM FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR CHANGE IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR... HIGH MVFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL
KEEPS WINDS UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY LIFT TO ALL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z.

RAIN: MOST RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 6AM LEAVING A DRY
DAY.

AREA WINDS: NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED... GUSTING TO 25 KTS
AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON... THEN CALMING TO 5 TO 10 KTS AND
BACKING TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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