Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 040856
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
256 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS SET-UP OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AS
EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE WILL MEAN CLEAR SKIES AND THE CONTINUANCE
OF THE WARMING TREND THAT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY REALIZED THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK THUS FAR. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST...A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET UP OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. WITH 850
TEMPS AT APPROXIMATELY +20 C EACH DAY...DAYTIME HIGHS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY UPWARDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIXING TO THE SURFACE.

BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO COLLAPSE AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ONSHORE OFF THE CA COAST. THIS
COLLAPSE WILL USHER IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION
STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT HOLDING THE MAJORITY OF
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE SOUTH...BUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

BIGELBACH


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS IN BEST AGREEMENT FROM
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS VERY LARGE CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION KEEPING ANY
NOTICEABLE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON ITS NORTHERN EXTENSION
BARELY SNEAKING OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH A CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FROM SUNDAY EVENING ONWARD...MODELS BEGIN TO FALL APART IN THE
OVERALL DEPICTION OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME. FIRST WITH THE
LARGE CUT-OFF LOW DISSOLVING AS IT MOVES NE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...SECOND WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE EC IS
ADVERTISING A MUCH WETTER PERIOD WHILE OTHER MODELS INDICATE A
SCATTERED THREAT OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. LEANED HERE A LITTLE MORE
TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION...BUT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS THE EC BY
ITSELF.

EXPECT COMFORTABLE SPRING TIME TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROVIDE BEAUTIFUL FLYING WEATHER OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AND JUST A FEW HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE STEADY FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST UP TO 10-15 MPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



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