Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 040214
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
814 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NOT TOO MUCH TO CHANGE THIS EVENING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
T-STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER THE CYPRESS HILLS OF SW
SASK. THEY SHOULD TEND TO GO MORE EAST THAN SE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
BETTER MOISTURE SOURCE EXISTS THERE. BUT WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE
SHOWING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH E MT SO THERE
COULD BE A LATE SHOWER/TSTORM THAT POPS UP...PROBABLY CLOSER TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

OTHERWISE...ADDED HAZE TO THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS HAZE/SMOKE PROBABLY WON/T EXIT CWA UNTIL FRONT SWEEPS
IT INTO THE DAKOTAS LATER SATURDAY. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...MAKING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY CONDITIONS. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY AND
VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. GILCHRIST

INDEPENDENCE DAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S AGAIN.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ONLY CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR A LINE FROM MALTA TO SCOBEY...THEN DURING
THE EVENING. THEN DURING THE EVENING...THAT INSTABILITY AXIS
QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS REGARDING RAIN AMOUNTS. MOST MODELS KEEP NE MONTANA DRY
WITH MAYBE A FEW STORMS IN OUR NE AND SE ZONES. THE EVENING LOOKS
ALSO NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIP MOST LIKELY FOR FAR E AND FAR
W ZONES. I CAN TELL THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT THE
PRECIP...BUT STILL BEING A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO DO SO. MIGHT STILL
WANT TO CONSIDER THE RISK OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THIS MODEL
OUTPUT.

AFTERNOON AND EARLY HUMIDITY READINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR THE MISSOURI BREAKS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONDITIONS
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MARGINAL. EXPECTING SHIFTING AND
GUSTY WINDS TO ARRIVE IN THIS AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
HOTTEST AND DRIEST PART OF THE DAY. DO NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WOULD BE WARRANTED GIVEN
GIVEN ONLY MODERATELY DANGEROUS FUELS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...WINDS
ACROSS FORT PECK LAKE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS. MIGHT GET UP TO 20 G 30 MPH...BUT MIGHT ALSO BE JUST BELOW
THOSE LEVELS. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION THESE MARGINAL CONDITIONS
AND LET NEXT SHIFT HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS FOR BETTER TIMING
DECISIONS.

SUNDAY...THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE POST-FRONTAL. EXPECTING IT TO TAKE THE FORM OF
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. STUBBORN MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE EC AND CMC SHOWING A WET NORTHERN ZONES
REGION...AND THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING A WET SOUTHERN ZONES REGION.
EXPECT CLEARING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SUNDAY
EVENING APPROACHES. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...THUS THE MAIN FOCUS WAS TO BEGIN TO TREND DOWN POPS AND UP
TEMPS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST WAS
LARGELY LEFT UNTOUCHED. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
WITH IT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW LONG TO LINGER THE MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MVFR
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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