Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 010238

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
838 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Thu...

The upper low continues to spin over the state of North Dakota
this evening. The backside of the low is spreading showers... very
isolated type... over the area. This is expected to continue until
midnight and then a drying process will continue. Minor timing and
coverage changes made to the forecast this evening, otherwise most
elements remain as forecast. Proton

Previous Discussion...
A tightly wound vertically stacked low is drifting east across
north Dakota this afternoon. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure
sits over the golden state of California with an upper trough
moving east approaching the Pacific Northwest. A larger upper low
is sitting over the Aleutian islands.

Radar Mosaic showed a shrinking area showers over the southeast
zones with additional development occurring just to the nw that
extends into southern SK. These showers and an isolated
thunderstorm will hang around the CWA through the afternoon
before slowly diminishing this evening.

A tight pressure gradient in place should keep winds at lake wind
advisory criteria through 9 pm. Cyclonic flow around the low will
allow skies from clearing out.

Wednesday...a weak ridge of high pressure will be in control
providing mainly clear skies, light winds and temperatures closer
to normal.

By Thursday, remnants of the Aleutian trough may have enough
moisture and instability to trigger an isolated afternoon
thunderstorm or two. 850 mb temps near 20*C should allow high
temperatures to reach the low 80s for most places. TFJ

.LONG TERM...Thu night through Tue...

Not any major changes from previous forecast thinking for the long
term period. Basically increased or decreased PoPs based on best
model blend consensus.

Generally, will see lingering left- over rain showers Thursday
evening through Friday morning.

Friday through Monday night a strong ridge of high pressure over
the western states will bring a much warmer and drier weather
pattern to northeast Montana. It should begin to feel like summer.

Tuesday morning and beyond: A broad, weak trough from the Canadian
Rockies will introduce the next chances for precipitation, but
there are enough model differences this far out that forecast
confidence is relatively low for just a few passing showers and
thunderstorms. BMickelson

Previous long term discussion:  Thursday evening zonal flow aloft
over Northeast Montana will be interrupted by a clipper moving
across southern Saskatchewan. There is limited moisture, so the
cold front will likely produce only a few light showers. Then by
Friday morning flow aloft veers to the northwest introducing more
dry air. The main affect from this system will be to produce gusty
northwest winds Friday afternoon, and to hold back the hot air
from the building ridge in the west.

The upper ridge builds over the western US and Canada starting on
Friday and strengthens over the weekend. Expect warm and dry
weather over the area. The ridge continues to build strength by
early next week. There is the possibility for the hot desert air
to nudge its way north into Montana for warmer temperatures than
the models are currently showing.



Isolated showers will continue to diminish with VFR conditions
becoming the prevailing trend overnight. North winds will continue
around 10 kts. Maliawco




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