Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 102009
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
209 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A COLD AFTERNOON WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO. MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS
HOW LOW TEMPERATURES GET TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL BACK OFF LATE TONIGHT...SO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS TO TANK LATE TONIGHT IF
WINDS DROP OFF. OVER THE NORTH...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOST
OF THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL DISAPPEAR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANGES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IF WE
DO GET A COUPLE HOURS OF CLEAR AND CALM...EVENING SHIFT WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LOWER THEM SOME MORE.

EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH THURSDAY MORNING...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. IT
WILL BE COLD AGAIN WITH HIGHS FROM 10 TO 18.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

PRIMARY FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE SNOW BELT FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...PRIMARILY FRIDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THIS
WEEK TRANSITIONING INTO A WARMUP NEXT WEEK...AND ANOTHER SHOT AT
SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SNOWMAKER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BUT THAT COMES WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
A SOLID UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF HUDSON
BAY INTO QUEBEC IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE ON
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW SIMILARLY
SITUATED. BUT IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT...WE APPEAR TO BE NEAR A
COL IN THE SURFACE FLOW AS A WEAK RIDGE ALSO LOOKS TO DRIFT
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DISTANCE FROM THE BEST FORCING AND
WEAK FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT NOT MUCH IS IN THE OFFING
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT A COUPLE OTHER FEATURES DO ADD A
COUPLE PARTICULAR TWISTS.

FIRST...A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY SHOULD
AMPLIFY LIFT AND FLOW OFF A STILL OPEN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD AT
LEAST ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE TYPICAL SNOWBELTS. A
LACK OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WOULD INDICATE ISSUES IN GETTING MUCH
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SECOND...AN AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANTAMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...PARTICULARLY WITH A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MUCH STRONGER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH DROPPING INTO
THE US LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALSO SHARPEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND CRANK UP WINDS. WITH THE FLOOD OF COLD AIR AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS...WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ACROSS THE AREA BECOME
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.


THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD...WITH ONLY THE WARMEST
SPOTS LOOKING LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS. AS THE HIGH
MOVES OUT AND THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT COULD BE UNUSUALLY TRICKY. SINCE MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS CLOUDS
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE NIGHT...WENT NEARLY AS
COLD SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS ARE
QUICKER TO ARRIVE...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET THE OPPORTUNITY TO
CRASH.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...FLOW SWITCHES
AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
SNOW AT SOME POINT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ISN`T AS
HIGH ON THE SPECIFICS. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A
SHORTWAVE AND BRINGS SNOW CHANCES IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE
SLOWER EURO PREFERS SUNDAY NIGHT MORE. ADDITIONALLY...IF YOU
BELIEVE THE GFS... THINGS COULD BE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY A VORT
MAX IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM POTENTIALLY BEING DRAWN UP AND
PROLONGING SNOW CHANCES THROUGH ALL OF MONDAY AS WELL. TEND TO
LEAN TOWARDS THE EURO ON THIS SOLUTION...BUT THE POPS DO GET
SMEARED OUT A BIT ON THE ENDS TO ACCOUNT A LITTLE FOR THE GFS.
EITHER WAY...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE POPS OUT AS BEING IMPRESSIVELY
STRONG FOR OUR AREA AND WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO BE PRETTY LIGHT.
BUT IF THE GFS IS RIGHT AND WE CAN TAP INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SOME...MAYBE WE COULD MANAGE MORE. MORE LIKELY...THE EURO IS RIGHT
AND WE REMAIN WITH SUB-ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS AND THE BIGGER
NATIONAL STORY IS SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHEAST.


REST OF THE FORECAST...
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE WEEK...THERE IS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT WE WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS FLOW DEAMPLIFIES TO
SOME EXTENT AND THE OPEN ALLEY FOR ARCTIC AIR IS CUT OFF.
BUT BEYOND THAT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES. WOULD EXPECT SOME KIND OF
SHORTWAVE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SNOW. BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE NOW IN PRECISELY HOW
THAT WILL PLAY OUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUED FROM KY50 TO KSTE TO KAUW/KCWA
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MUCH OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...MAINLY THE AIRPORT SITES
IN VILAS COUNTY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......ECKBERG


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