Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 300735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
335 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

A typical mid-summer weekend is on tap for the region as a broad and
weak pressure pattern lingers atop the Southeast. Little change in
the weather pattern is expected through the start of next week.


As of 330 AM EDT Saturday:  A broad, yet medium amplitude H5 trof
continues to dig across the east/central CONUS, while the persistent
anticyclone that has been responsible for many dry/hot days over the
southeast flattens.  At the surface over the southeast, weak high
pressure looks to prevail overall, however with embedded lee
troffing over portions of Northeast GA and the western Carolinas.

Thermal profiles once again exhibit modest low/mid lvl lapse
rates beneath poor rates in the mid/upper levels, while shear is
slightly improved from days past thanks improved flow amidst the
synoptic trof.  Given these parameters, as well as an analysis
of Cam composites, the fcst will feature a broad brush of
isolated/scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, likely initiating
along the Blue Ridge before cold pool propagation directs said
convection east into the NC/SC piedmont.  Given the poor lapse
rates aloft, not expecting any severe convection, however a few
stronger storms cannot be ruled out.  Pops will lower through the
evening into the overnight, however lingering at low end slight
chance levels regionwide through Sunday morning.  Temperatures today
will once again be quite warm, generally mid/upper 90s along/south
of I85, with upper 80s to lower 90s across the northern piedmont
and foothills, and upper 70s to mid 80s favored over the higher
elevations.  Dewpoints are expected to mix out a bit into the
afternoon, however remaining at levels supportive of heat indices
nearing the century mark across the southern tier of the fcst area.


As of 155 AM upper trough axis moves into the area
Sunday and remains in place on Monday. A series of weak short waves
will rotate through the trough and over or near the area each day.
At the surface, a weak cold front moves toward the area Sunday with
a lee trough developing over the CWFA. The front drops into the area
for Monday. All this should lead to a relatively good environment
for deep convection both days. Therefore, precip chances will be
higher then climo, but with a fairly typical diurnal and placement
trend. Cannot rule out a few strong/severe storms both days, but
poor lapse rates, low shear, and relatively weak DCAPE suggest
chances are low. Temps will remain above normal with low to mid 90s
common both days. Humidity will be high enough for heat index values
to rise into the low 100 range, mainly south of I-85.


As of 320 AM Saturday...upper trough axis over the East Coast on
Tuesday slides off shore on Wednesday as ridging builds over the
central CONUS. This keeps a NW flow over the area through Thursday
allowing a series of short waves to move through the flow and over
or near the CWFA. Differences develop in the guidance by Friday,
with the ECMWF showing short wave ridging developing over the area,
while the GFS develops a weak short wave trough. A quasi-stationary
front remains over the area Tuesday and Wednesday keeping a chance
of diurnal convection over the CWFA each day. Tuesday is the drier
of the two days with only isolated convection expected. The front
washes out Thursday but southerly low level flow develops and
continues into Friday. This keeps moisture and instability over the
area, resulting in continued scattered mainly diurnal convection
each day. Temps remain above normal through the period, but do drop
toward normal for Thursday.


At KCLT: VFR through the period.  Mid/high clouds to persist
through the overnight into midday before few/sct low vfr cu builds
with heating.  Profiles on Saturday remain relatively unstable
in the low/mid levels, however exhibit poor lapse rates in the
mid/upper levels which would limit overall depth/intensity of tsra.
Thus, think convection will initiate about the region, however
confidence in placement/timing is low at this point, therefore
opted for broad 6hr tsra prob30.  Winds will remain light wnw/wsw
this morning before backing sw by late morning in the 6-8kts range.

Elsewhere: Trends very similar to that of KCLT above, however with
restrictions due to fog/cigs possible by daybreak at a few sites.
Xover temps are most elevated at KAND as well as at KAVL/KHKY,
therefore given light/calm flow and only few/sct mid clouds, opted
to include mvfr restrictions, possibly ifr at KAVL.  Otherwise, said
mid/high clouds will prevail through late morning before llv lapse
rates increase with heating allowing for low vfr cu development
at all sites.  Kept tsra mention in at all sites by way of prob30s
as chances are rather uniform across the region thanks to synoptic
scale troffing.  Winds will remain generally out of the wsw around
6-10kts aside for at KAVL where wnw flow will prevail.

Outlook: Broad troffing continues to build across the east/central
CONUS lasting into mid week.  Moisture in the low/mid levels
combined with a series of impulses working through the mean flow
aloft will yield continued/increased chances for shra/tsra through
mid/late week.  As such, restrictions associated with shra/tsra
are possible, as well as early morning fog/cigs.

Confidence Table...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  96%     High  96%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High  90%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  84%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




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