Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 250521

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
121 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

A cold front will move southeast across the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia this evening and then settle southeast of the
region overnight. Drier and cooler air will start to spread in from
the northwest through the day on Sunday, with these conditions
persisting through much of the week. Moisture will slowly return
around an offshore ridge of high pressure toward the end of the week.


As of 10:15pm EDT Saturday:  Forecast continues on track with
showers exiting the region to the southeast over the next few
hours.  Temperatures are a little off in some locations due to
effects of precipitation and clouds, and tried to improve those.

Showers will continue to weaken and move southeastward, exiting
the CWA by midnight with a few residual widely scattered light
showers persisting in piedmont areas for a few hours beyond that.

Showers have been along a frontal zone ahead of a broad eastern
CONUS upper trough.  Front and trough will continue southeastward with
relatively cool and dry northerly flow behind the front.  Passage of
this boundary tonight marks the end of a wet period with clearing
skies on Sunday.  As Sunday afternoon will be clear, highs may
actually warm into the mid and upper 80s in piedmont areas, which
would be warmer by a few degrees than the highs today which had
cooler temps. due to rain and cloud cover.  Dewpoints will drop
throughout Sunday leading to cooler and much less humid temps Monday
morning and onward.  Winds are light and variable behind the front
and will remain light as mild northerly flow develops around surface
high forming over the Mississippi Basin.


As of 115 PM EDT Saturday: Mean upper trough continues to make
progress into the Eastern Conus allowing dry air through a deep
layer to overspread the region Sunday night and Monday. Still
expecting a precipitous tumbling of sfc dwpts and below normal
temperatures.  Upper trough axis progresses into the region on
Tuesday with s/wv energy progged to advect through it`s base.  Short
range model consensus is trending a tad more responsive with this
feature, and may wind up ringing out some showers acrs NW NC.
Tuesday should wind up being the coolest day of the week thanks to
more the way of cloudiness and an increase in northerly llvl flow.


As of 1230 PM EDT Saturday: Upper heights atop the SE Conus begin to
rise on Wednesday with llvl return flow just getting under way as
llvl ridge axis shifts to the coast. Little in the way of sensible
wx to speak of featuring temperatures and humidity levels below
climo. This trend continues into Thursday with an upward bump in max
temps and dwpts, but the atmosphere still should remain effectively
capped.  A return to summertime warmth and humidity is expected for
Friday and Saturday within the progressively more moist, unstable
and less suppressed enviroment featuring daily thunderstorm chances.


At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the period for all but KAND,
where lingering IFR to LIFR stratus will scatter out shortly, but
should see MVFR to IFR vsby remain through daybreak. For other
sites, only some passing high to occasionally mid-level clouds
through the period. NW winds veering more N through the period,
fairly light this morning but picking up around or just above 5kt
this afternoon, though KAVL could see some low-end gusts.

Outlook: Expect light winds and mostly clear skies through Thursday
as high pressure dominates the weather.

Confidence Table...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       High  87%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       Med   75%     Low   36%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




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