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000
FXUS63 KICT 040352
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
952 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOWED SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES
WERE REACHING GROUND IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AT MID-EVENING. THIS
AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE VERY LIGHT AND LITTLE MORE THAN A TRACE EVENT. WHILE THE
SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE INCOMING
WINTER EVENT...THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
00Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST ONSET WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN THIS EVENING
THRU MIDNIGHT...THEN RAMPED UP LATER IN THE NIGHT. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A MIXED PHASE IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR THEN TRANSITIONING SOUTH/COLDER TO
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GOING SNOW
ACCUMS LOOK GOOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES ANTICIPATED FOR
NOW.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS AROUND WINTER WEATHER CHANCES TONIGHT-
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: A DEEP ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS WILL INDUCE A VERY STRONG UPPER
JET FROM MID- AMERICA INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING 800-600MB FRONTOGENESIS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED
LIFT UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER JET SHOULD
ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE BREAKING OUT THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL SET
UP GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400 OVERNIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MODEL THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MOSTLY SNOW...ALTHOUGH A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400 AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CHANGING TO SNOW THEREAFTER. ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...OVERALL EXPECTING
1-2 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...AND ALSO OVER FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. EVEN THOUGH
THIS COULD BE A FAIRLY MARGINAL EVENT...DECIDED TO GO WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT COUNTIES NORTH OF I-70...AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...STRONG NORTH WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT- WEDNESDAY...AS AN ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

ADK

WED AFTERNOON-THU: THE MAIN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS ON WED WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS FRESH SNOW
COVER AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS FOR
WED.

ACTUALLY EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO RETURN BY THU AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS...AS DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING
NICELY IN CENTRAL KS. TEMPS IN SOUTHERN KS MAY BE A BIT
TRICKY...GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW COVER....WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN
QUITE A BIT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP THE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND...TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPS. POSSIBLY SEE TEMPS
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A WELCOME CHANGE COMPARED TO THE LAST WEEK.

NOT ALOT OF WEATHER MAKERS EXPECTED IN THIS NW FLOW PATTERN...AS
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR ANY WEAK IMPULSE TO WORK WITH. SO
EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND STRENGTHENING UPPER JET WILL
RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 06-09Z.
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET
AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING
TO SNOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE
WINTRY PRECIP...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KED
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. GUSTY
NORTH-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE ON WED WHICH WILL KEEP RH`S HIGH AS A CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON WED.

NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW CURED GRASSES TO DRY OUT. SO EXPECT A
CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  28  13  39 /  70  70  10   0
HUTCHINSON      17  29  11  40 /  70  70  10   0
NEWTON          17  27  12  38 /  70  70  10   0
ELDORADO        19  27  13  37 /  70  70  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  26  13  37 /  60  70  30   0
RUSSELL         15  29   5  42 /  50  50   0   0
GREAT BEND      16  28   4  41 /  70  70  10   0
SALINA          17  31  10  41 /  60  60  10   0
MCPHERSON       17  29  11  40 /  70  70  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     23  26  13  35 /  60  70  60   0
CHANUTE         20  26  12  35 /  60  70  20   0
IOLA            19  26  12  34 /  60  70  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    21  25  12  35 /  60  70  40   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ047-048-
050>052-067>069-082-083-091>093.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
KSZ094>096-098>100.

&&

$$