Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 070747
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
247 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION BEGAN TO DIMINISH AROUND 06Z
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A MORE STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME BUILDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE ACTIVITY MAY BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND TRENDED POPS DOWN THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED INSOLATION WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
KEEPING THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOCUSED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVIER RAIN
WILL REMAIN. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE TRIMMED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LIMITED INSOLATION ON WED WILL KEEP
HIGHS WELL BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANT FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO ARRIVE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S/AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. RISING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RISING TEMPERATURES
WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

LARGE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN KS AT
THIS TIME...MAINLY TO THE SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE.  EXPECT THIS AREA
OF SHRA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE.  SO
WILL KEEP SHRA AND VCTS IN FOR THE KCNU TAF...AS SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA.  JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE RAIN
SHIELD...COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR CIGS...FOR THE
KICT/KHUT AND KSLN FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS.  WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THE IFR CIGS IN KICT/KHUT.

AFTER THE MVFR CIGS END...WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS. EXPECT LOTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PLAY
OUT...AS MODELS SHOW ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN KS.  WILL GO WITH A VCSH FOR NOW...BUT NOT ALOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT.

KETCHAM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  62  77  65 /  50  50  30  40
HUTCHINSON      77  60  78  63 /  10  30  20  50
NEWTON          75  61  75  62 /  30  50  30  40
ELDORADO        75  61  75  64 /  60  70  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  63  77  67 /  70  70  30  40
RUSSELL         78  57  80  62 /  10  10  10  50
GREAT BEND      77  58  80  64 /  10  10  10  50
SALINA          78  59  78  63 /  10  20  20  40
MCPHERSON       76  60  77  63 /  10  30  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     75  66  79  68 /  80  90  60  40
CHANUTE         75  64  76  64 /  70  90  60  40
IOLA            75  64  76  63 /  60  90  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    75  65  78  67 /  80  90  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

$$


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