Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 282233
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
533 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Upper low is sinking south out of the Great Lakes region and into
the Ohio Valley while upper ridging is strengthening over the
Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extends from western KS
into northern AR, with another shot of cooler air moving over the
area. This will provide some of the coolest air of the season so
far with highs on Thu struggling to reach 70 degrees across most
of the forecast area. Normal highs for this time of year are in
the mid to upper 70s.

The upper low is expected to churn over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley
through Fri while additional shortwave energy comes onshore over
the Pacific NW. A slow warming trend will commence as we head
into the weekend with a return to more seasonal temps. Small rain
chances will show back up in the forecast starting Sat night
across central KS as mid level theta-e advection increases.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

There is decent model agreement that by Mon morning a robust
shortwave trough will be digging over the Great Basin and will
lift out across the northern/central Rockies by Tue morning. While
periodic small rain chances will continue after Sat night, it
looks like the better rain chances arrive Tue through Wed as the
upper impulse starts to directly impact the forecast area. In
addition, a cold front will also pass through during the Tue
through Wed time frame which will increase rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period.
Cooler Canadian air will continue to advect south across central
and eastern Kansas tonight. While mainly clear conditions are
expected through Thursday, diurnal heating may result in FEW-SCT
cumulus during the early afternoon over eastern third of Kansas.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    47  69  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      45  69  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          45  68  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        47  68  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   47  69  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         43  68  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      43  69  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          45  69  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       45  68  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     47  71  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         47  69  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            47  69  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    47  70  49  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED



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