Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
000
FXUS63 KICT 272331
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
531 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Low level moisture transport ahead of a developing low pressure area
in SE CO, has led to lots of low clouds streaming north this
afternoon. This low level moisture return may lead to a slight
chance of some widely scattered showers developing over extreme SE
KS for the late afternoon into the early evening hours. Already
seeing signs of this over Ern Ok.

Expect to see a lull in any precip for the overnight hours as the
low pressure area in the panhandle of OK begins to pulls east across
the srn plains.

As this low pressure area treks east along the KS/OK border on Tue.
Expect lots of low level moisture return/warm advection ahead of
this low, across most of srn half of KS for the morning hours on
Tue, with well above normal temps expected across most of srn KS.
This low level moisture return may lead to surface dewpoints
actually climbing into the low 50s for portions of SE KS (east of
the Turnpike) for the late afternoon.

Lift associated with the main shortwave expected to move out of the
southern Rockies on Tue afternoon may lead to some light rain over
central Kansas for Tuesday afternoon as a cold front pushes into
Central KS.

Meanwhile, the very moist rich/unstable airmass (for late February)
will be in place across eastern Oklahoma, SE KS, and SW MO for Tue
afternoon, which will set the stage for a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for Tues afternoon/night. There is a small "window of
opportunity" for a few strong or even severe storms to initiate over
far southeast KS Tuesday afternoon/evening along or just ahead of
the Central KS cold front as it dives southeast. Think chances for
strong/severe storms will quickly shift east of the area during the
evening hours.

As the cooler air on the backside of the cold front filters into
Central KS, post frontal precipitation behind the front, could
change over or become a mix of rain and snow Tuesday night across
central Kansas as the colder air pours into the area, however the
lift from the upper level wave begins to quickly shift east later
Tuesday night. This could leave a smaller window of possible
snowfall for central Kansas, with little to no accumulation
expected.

Cooler air (closer to seasonal averages) will overspread the area on
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds across the region. with
this cool and dry airmass dominating the weather pattern into thu as
well.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

The weather pattern favors a warming trend for this period heading
into the weekend along with dry conditions. The winds will also be
on the increase for Friday into the weekend as surface pressure
gradient increases from lee troughing over the high plains. Latest
medium range models do hint at a chance for some light rain for Sun
night into Mon for the eastern half of KS.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Moist southerly low level flow will prevail across the Flint Hills
and southeast Kansas where IFR stratus cigs and patchy fog are
expected tonight. Stronger southwest winds aloft will also create
LLWS across parts of central and southeast Kansas tonight. A
strong cold front will move southeast across central Kansas during
Tuesday afternoon with gusty south to southwest winds out ahead of
the front across southern Kansas.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Breezy southwest winds across most of the Flint Hills
will lead to a very high grassland fire danger for Tuesday
afternoon.

Winds will shift around to the northwest on Wed and Thu, with
drier air moving into the region from the NW. This will also lead
to a very high grassland fire danger for Wed/thu.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    47  71  35  55 /   0  10  30   0
Hutchinson      45  67  32  54 /   0  10  40   0
Newton          47  67  33  52 /   0  10  30   0
ElDorado        49  72  35  54 /   0  10  30   0
Winfield-KWLD   51  74  36  56 /   0   0  30   0
Russell         38  57  28  51 /   0  20  40   0
Great Bend      40  58  29  52 /   0  20  50   0
Salina          43  62  31  53 /   0  20  50   0
McPherson       44  65  31  52 /   0  10  40   0
Coffeyville     57  77  40  57 /  10  30  30   0
Chanute         54  76  37  56 /  20  20  40   0
Iola            53  75  37  55 /  20  20  40   0
Parsons-KPPF    56  76  39  57 /  20  20  40   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.