Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 182107
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
307 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 305 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

Shallow low level moisture led to some patchy dense fog this
morning, with this fog/low level moisture, finally burning off this
afternoon. Expect this low level moisture to linger into this
evening and overnight, especially for areas east of the KS turnpike.
Increasing S-SW flow will lead to shallow moisture actually
increasing enough, for another chance for low clouds and fog for
most areas east of the Turnpike late this evening and overnight.
Increasing stratus and better low level mixing, may limit how dense
the fog actually gets, so will go with areas of fog, with most
locations staying the 1-3sm ranges. Could see some transient dense
fog along the wrn edge of the stratus with radiational effects
helping this fog (mainly along or just west of the KS Turnpike), but
pinning this down will be difficult until stratus begins to push
north during the evening.

The S-SW flow will lead to continued mild weather for Tue, as a
southern plains shortwave makes its way across TX and Ark by Tue
night. Warm advection ahead of this shortwave will lead to the
shallow low level moisture remaining high for areas east of the KS
Turnpike, with some areas of the Flint Hills staying in cloud cover
and possibly patchy fog for the daytime hours on Tue. Isentropic
ascent in the 290-295k layer increases enough over the Flint Hills
by Tue evening/night for a possible drizzle or light rain chance.
Clouds and warm advection will help keep temps above freezing, so
think all the precip will stay all liquid.

Wed and early Thu appear to be the last mild days, as far as temps
are concerned.  Max temps will be tempered somewhat on Wed as low
level moisture that has been lingering over SE KS begins to lift N-
NW as strong low level warm advection increases across the area
with increasing cloud cover.

Thu looks like a transition day, with one last day of mild warm
temps still expected across SE KS ahead of a weak low pressure
system expected to track across KS. Of bigger concern, is the strong
cold front expected to push south, as this low pushes east for Thu
afternoon, with strong gusty winds and falling temps expected for
Thu afternoon/night. Could even even see some light precip across
northern KS as this front pushes south, but think most of this still
remain further to the NE of the area.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

The shortwave over the Rockies that helped push the cold front
south, will move across the area on Fri. GFS and ECMWF show this
shortwave shearing out as it moves across the plains with possibly a
very light mix of rain or light snow for SE KS for Fri afternoon.
The Canadian model is more potent with this system, and seems to be
the outlier.

Colder temps will the big story for the holiday weekend, as a
persistent large scale upper trough develops over the northern Great
Lakes which will support very cold temps pushing south into the
plains. This would suggest daytime highs in the 20s and 30s with
lows in the teens or single digits. A secondary colder shot of
arctic air moves south across the area on Sunday afternoon which may
lead to temps struggling to reach 30 and lows in the single digits.

While uncertainty remains high, there is support from the ECMWF and
Canadian models, and to some extent the GFS, for light accumulating
snow Christmas Eve, as a significant shortwave drops south through
the base of the central CONUS longwave trough. Am hesitant to get
too specific this far out in the forecast given the high
uncertainty, so will run with modest PoPs for now. That said, if the
current ECMWF and Canadian model solutions verify, portions of the
area could be looking at a white Christmas...stay tuned.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites for this afternoon
and evening, however low clouds/fog could re-develop again later
tonight across southern Kansas. The low clouds could drop into the
the IFR/LIFR range towards daybreak along with some lower
visibilities on the edge of the low level clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    38  59  37  57 /   0   0  10   0
Hutchinson      34  59  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          37  58  36  56 /   0   0  10   0
ElDorado        38  58  39  57 /   0   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   40  59  40  59 /   0   0  10   0
Russell         29  57  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      30  58  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          33  59  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       34  58  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     43  60  44  61 /  10  10  30  10
Chanute         42  58  41  57 /   0   0  20  10
Iola            41  58  40  56 /   0   0  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    43  59  44  60 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...CDJ



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