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000
FXUS63 KICT 231203
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
703 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

CURRENTLY HAVE TWO SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE CONUS. ONE OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER APPROACHING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT
THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISO-
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS MORNING AND MAY EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH
AROUND/AFTER SUNRISE. LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THIS
ACTIVITY TO JUST SOME SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS.

WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LEAVE THE AREA AS IS. UPGRADED MOST OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
WARNING. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY WORK NORTH WITH
A DRYLINE EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER WESTERN KS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND ALSO ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. AFTER SUNSET THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS START TO LIFT OUT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET WHERE PLENTY OF
DIFFLUENCE WILL BE IN PLACE. THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE TO LINE UP ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT AS IT SURGES SOUTHEAST. THIS STORM MODE WILL LIMIT THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH HAIL AND WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE STORMS
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KS...THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA AFTER DARK.

LINE OF STORMS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THU MORNING WITH
MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE HAVING A SHOT AT STORMS
PRIOR TO 15Z THUR. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN
PLACE. NOT EXPECTING ANY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THESE EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUE TO LOOK ACTIVE WITH ONE OR MORE
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES LIKELY.

SCT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SE KS FRI NIGHT AS MOISTURE IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER SURGES QUICKLY NORTH. AT A MINIMUM AT LEAST
SOME STRONG STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. BY SAT MORNING
THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SAT EVENING. BOTH MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT`S RUNS WHICH IS
AN EXPECTED TREND WITH THESE DEEP DIGGING SYSTEMS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY SURGE NORTH SAT WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THE GFS
DOES HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE ECMWF LIFTING IT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS DRYLINE IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETREAT WEST SAT EVENING.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR SAT WILL BE HOW MUCH STORM COVERAGE CAN WE
GET ON THE DRYLINE OR WARM FRONT WITH THE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MID
LEVEL COOLING WELL WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BECOME HIGH END SEVERE AND WITH THE DRYLINE
RETREATING...WILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET TO WORK WITH. AT THIS POINT THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOK TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.

THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON SUN WHICH WILL SURGE THE DRYLINE EAST. BY 18Z SUN THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE ALONG OR JUST EAST OF I-135. AT THIS POINT FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER ON SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE THE UPPER DYNAMICS KICKING OUT ALONG WITH
LESS CAPPING DUE TO COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS. HOWEVER...DEEP SHEAR
VECTORS WILL BE MORE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN MORE LINE SEGMENTS AND LESS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. ON SUN...AREAS
EAST OF I-135 WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE STORMS.

MON AND TUE LOOK COLD AND DAMP AS THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO CLOSE
OFF AS IT MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SPILL SOUTH.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ISOLD TS MAY VISIT AREAS E OF THE KSLN VICINITY THIS MORNING BUT AM
LEAVING "VCTS" OUT OF THE TAF FOR TIME BEING. WDLY SCT/ISOLD --RA
MAY PESTER THE AREA TIL ~15Z BUT WITH LOWEST ~10,000FT OF AIRMASS
QUITE DRY VIRGA TO BE MOST LIKELY ENCOUNTERED.

A SFC CYCLONE THAT`LL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
WILL CAUSE SE WINDS 13-17KTS TO SHIFT TO DUE S & INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY. SUSTAINED 26-30KTS WITH 35-40KT GUSTS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS CNTRL & SC KS BY LATE MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS
OVER SE KS. WITH THE INTENSE CYCLONE MOVG SE TOWARD THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES ONLY SLIGHT DIMINISHMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS THIS EVENING & OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SE ACROSS KS LATER TONIGHT. ALONG THE FRONT
SVR TSRA CAPABLE OF BOTH LARGE HAIL & DAMAGING WINDS WOULD DEVELOP
OVER WRN KS & SURGE E/SE ACROSS CNTRL & ERN KS. BOTH LARGE HAIL &
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT KRSL & KHUT EARLY THIS EVE BUT
DAMAGING 60KT WINDS WOULD BECOME THE PREDOMINANT THREAT LATER THIS
EVE & OVERNIGHT. SPECIFICS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE PROVIDED IN THE 18Z &
24/00Z EDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL ELEVATED THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY WITH EXTREME FIRE
DANGER ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135. RH`S ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40%. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 45
MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON THU
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS. WINDS WILL AGAIN FLIP AROUND TO
THE SOUTH FOR FRI AND WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  55  75  49 /  20  70  20   0
HUTCHINSON      83  52  74  47 /  20  90  10   0
NEWTON          82  53  73  49 /  20  80  20   0
ELDORADO        82  56  74  49 /  20  60  20   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  57  76  49 /  10  50  20   0
RUSSELL         84  48  73  45 /  40  90  10   0
GREAT BEND      84  50  73  45 /  30  90  10   0
SALINA          82  51  74  47 /  20  90  10   0
MCPHERSON       82  52  74  47 /  20  90  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     82  60  72  47 /  10  40  50   0
CHANUTE         81  59  72  46 /  10  50  60   0
IOLA            80  60  73  46 /  10  60  60   0
PARSONS-KPPF    82  60  72  47 /  10  50  60   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067.

&&

$$

ES