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000
FXUS63 KICT 101147
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
547 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS
TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...NEXT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER ALBERTA WILL RACE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND SWEEP
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF POLAR
AIR. LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR THE BAJA REGION...AND MODELS
SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN KANSAS FOR
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...BUT
THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF MODELS ON
TEMPERATURES. GFS SHOWS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD
WHILE ECMWF HAS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. WE WILL PLAY THE MIDDLE
GROUND WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A FAST MOVING UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN AFFECT IT WILL HAVE
ON AVIATION WILL BE TO FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WED MORNING.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    36  14  29  12 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      37  12  27  13 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          36  12  28  12 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        35  14  28  12 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   34  16  31  12 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         37   8  27  13 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      37  10  27  13 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          37   9  27  11 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       37  11  27  13 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  16  31  11 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         34  16  30  10 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            34  15  29  10 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    34  16  31  11 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$