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000
FXUS63 KICT 191130
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
630 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

TODAY:
WINDY & WARMER WEATHER REMAINS SLATED FOR ALL AREAS AS COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING OCCURS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTH WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT HAVE
CHECKED SWING AS INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY PREVENT MAXIMUM MIXING
POTENTIAL FROM BEING REALIZED.

TONIGHT-MONDAY:
THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW ARDUOUS PROGRESS AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL "KICKER" IS LACKING. AS SUCH THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO ENCROACH UPON CENTRAL KS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
MAY EVEN STALL IN A NE-SW MANNER FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
RUSSELL...BARTON & LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY & SUNDAY
NIGHT IS GETTING A BIT CHALLENGING AS NEARLY ALL FACETS OF FORECAST NO
DOUBT HINGE ON E/SE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROF & ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE
SLOW E/SE TRANSLATION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DICTATES LOWERING POPS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TO SLIGHT CHANCES. IT APPEARS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROF MAY MAKE SUFFICIENT EASTWARD PROGRESS TO SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
EAST ACROSS MOST OF KS SUNDAY NIGHT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROF...THOUGH WEAK...MAY INDUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROF BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE
BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A MUCH STRONGER
MID-UPPER TROF UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. THIS WOULD INDUCE THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO SHARPEN.
AS SUCH ALL TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD TUE & TUE NIGHT. AS THE
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE VENTURES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SOUTHERLY
LOWER-DECK FLOW WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE MARKEDLY TO INJECT RICH MOISTURE
ACROSS KS. WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SURGING SE ACROSS KS WED NIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE WED & WED NIGHT.
SINCE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS & ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING HAVE KEPT CHANCES CONSERVATIVE...FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE WORK-WEEK SHOULD BE NICE AS WEAK RIDGING SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR TODAY.

SOUTH WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY INCREASING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH ALL BUT KCNU EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETUP JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THEY SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF KRSL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING WARMER & DRIER AIR OVER KS
WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER SHOULD DIMINISH ON EASTER SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  56  76  58 /   0   0  50  60
HUTCHINSON      80  56  75  56 /   0  10  60  60
NEWTON          78  56  74  55 /   0   0  50  60
ELDORADO        77  56  75  56 /   0   0  40  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  56  76  56 /   0   0  40  60
RUSSELL         81  58  74  56 /  10  30  60  50
GREAT BEND      79  56  73  54 /   0  20  60  50
SALINA          82  58  77  55 /   0  10  60  60
MCPHERSON       80  57  75  55 /   0  10  60  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  54  77  59 /   0   0  20  60
CHANUTE         76  55  76  58 /   0   0  20  60
IOLA            76  55  76  58 /   0   0  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    77  55  76  60 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$