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000
FXUS63 KICT 201730
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Forecast Headline:
Heat Advisory in effect for all of Southeast KS as well as South-
Central KS from 1-7 PM CDT Today.

Today:
An isolated thunderstorm that is producing torrential rains has
set up camp over Wilson & Northern Montgomery Counties. The cell
developed in a well-defined of high octane Theta-E air (850-MB
dewpoints ~17C). With a STRONG & massive 700-MB high centered over
the ARKLATEX this cell will move very little thru daybreak. Its
outflow boundaries are likely to throw knuckleballs at convective
trends for the rest of the day. With confidence lacking on exact
location(s) of afternoon convection have generally "spray-painted"
15-20% across primarily Southeast KS where slightly greater
moisture remains entrenched. Any thunderstorms that develop this
afternoon are also likely to produce locally very heavy rains. As
such, further flooding, albeit localized, will need to be watched
closely. With such an unstable airmass thunderstorms that develop
will once again approach severity. With such a hot, humid airmass
entrenched across all of South-Central & Southeast KS heat indices
around 105 are likely. As such another Heat Advisory has been
issued from 1-7 PM CDT.

Tonight:
With little change in the overall pattern scattered thunderstorms
are possible although the slightly greater chances would be across
central KS where no doubt closer to the projected track of the
next MCS.

Mon-Tue Night:
An increasing thunderstorm potential is still anticipated as mid
to upper-deck trof strengthens as it surges SE from the Northern
Plains toward, then across, the Great Lakes. The trof will send a
cold front SE into Central KS late Mon afternoon/early Mon evening
with the front possibly reaching the Turnpike early Tue morning.
It still appears the mid-upper wave will provide enough of a kick
to send the front across the KS/OK border late Tue Night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Wed-Fri:
Cooler weather will spread across KS as high pressure spreads SE
from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes. A much drier airmass
would keep any chance of thunderstorms in check.

Sat & Sat Night:
An intense cyclone that`ll move slowly east across the Alberta/
Saskatchewan border will send a weak shortwave slowly east into
Western KS. Thunderstorms should develop over the Western Plains &
may spread into Central KS on Sat. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through this forecast period. I am
forecasting an advection of upper level cirrus and overnight from
the SW part of the US and a sct deck of AC to affect KRSL and KGBD
towards morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    98  75  94  71 /  10  10  20  50
Hutchinson      98  75  93  69 /  10  10  20  60
Newton          97  74  92  69 /  10  10  20  60
ElDorado        97  74  92  70 /  10  10  20  60
Winfield-KWLD   98  75  94  72 /  10  10  10  30
Russell         99  74  92  67 /  10  10  30  60
Great Bend      98  73  92  67 /  10  10  30  60
Salina          99  76  94  69 /  20  10  30  60
McPherson       97  75  93  69 /  10  10  30  60
Coffeyville     95  74  92  73 /  20  20  10  30
Chanute         95  74  91  72 /  20  20  20  60
Iola            94  74  91  71 /  20  10  20  60
Parsons-KPPF    95  74  92  73 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ069>072-082-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...CWH