Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 291143
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
643 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO NEW YEARS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MILD AND WET WEATHER MAY RETURN LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 544 AM MONDAY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY POSTED ALONG THE COAST S OF
CAPE FEAR INCLUDING WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES AS 1/4 MILE
OR LESS VISIBILITIES SETTLE IN. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ALSO
EFFECTIVE FROM MURRELLS INLET SOUTHWARD. MILD AIR RICH IN MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STAGNATE IN THE WEAK WARM SECTOR AND PATCHY DENSE SEA
FOG IS ADDING TO THE MIX IN A WEAK ONSHORE WIND FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES OTHERWISE AT THIS TIME ASIDE FROM FINE TUNING T/TD/POP
VALUES. UPPER SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS FAVORED W OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT IN TIME THIS FOCUS WILL SHIFT S AND E TOWARD THE COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS NC WILL MOVE SSE THROUGH SE NC THIS
MORNING AND NE SC THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SLIP
BENEATH MOIST AND MILD SW FLOW...LIKELY LEADING TO OCCASIONAL
-DZ/-RA/FG ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW
NO GUARANTEE OF MEASURABLE RAIN FALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING OUTSIDE OF LOW-LEVEL OVER-RUNNING AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS
REMAIN WEST ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT. GRADUALLY THE
UPPER SUPPORT WILL SHIFT S AND E TO THE COAST AND SEVERAL IMPULSES
IN THE SW FLOW WILL HELP TRIP OFF INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
THE AREA AND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR INTERIOR SE NC...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE REALIZED EARLY
IN THE DAY AS COOLING AND LOW CLOUDS SETTLE IN...WHILE FARTHER
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL THROUGH
MORNING. WHILE NO SIMPLE TASK...ESSENTIALLY EXPECTING MAXIMUMS OF
UPPER 50S NORTHERN SE NC INTERIOR AND LOW/MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE.
INTERIOR PARTS OF WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES COULD REACH
NEAR 70 AS FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS LATE AND BEYOND THE DIURNAL
HEATING MAXIMUM...AROUND 60 AT THE BEACHES TODAY. LINGERING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY SUSTAINS -RA CHANCES OVERNIGHT DWINDLING FROM W TO E
OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUMS AT DAYBREAK WIDESPREAD 40S...50 SOUTHERN
COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS MASSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE.

THE ONLY ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. I HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY TUESDAY AND OVERCAST SKIES MOST OF THE DAY. WE
SHOULD CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST AS LOW
LEVEL MIXING WILL BE MINIMAL WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A CLOSED LOW GETS KICKED OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A DAY OR SO
ON DEVELOPING A HYBRID WEDGE SCENARIO OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO THE
EAST. FORCING CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED AS RATHER WEAK AND WITH
MOISTURE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES ARE
NEAR 1.5 INCHES...THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY. THE
HIGHEST POPS ARE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...STILL EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS THE WEDGE IS SCOURED OUT SATURDAY AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES RISE APPRECIABLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND LOWS AROUND 50 AS MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DIURNAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A COLD FRONT BETWEEN KLBT AND KFLO EXTENDING EAST TO
JUST N OF KILM WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TERMINALS...PASSING KCRE/KMYR
AROUND 19Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT CIGS 1-3K ARE LIKELY. THE EXCEPTION
IS SEA FOG WITH CIG/VSBYS AOB 200 AND 1/2SM AT KCRE/KMYR. THIS SEA
FOG POTENTIALLY MAY MOT LIFT UNTIL 16Z UNTIL THE FRONT GETS CLOSER.
EVEN IF IMPROVEMENT OCCURS IT WILL BE TEMPORARY AS POST FRONTAL
CIGS AOB 600-700 FEET APPEAR LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY.

AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IS DECREASING THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS OUT. THIS SHOULD LEAVE ONLY
PERIODS OF RAIN SEVERAL HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FROPA. CIGS MAY LIFT
TO 700-1000 FEET AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO VERY SATURATED LOW LEVELS. CIGS AOB
500 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR CIGS TUE MORNING WILL BECOME MVFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR WED/THU. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR OVERNIGHT
FRI.



&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 544 AM MONDAY...MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY POSTED FROM MURRELLS
INLET SOUTHWARD FOR 1/4-1/2NM VSBYS THROUGH 9AM...AND THIS COULD BE
EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT IS SLIPPING S TOWARD CAPE FEAR EARLY THIS
MORNING THOUGH WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART BUT WILL
INCREASE MORE INTO AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PRESSES SOUTH. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND PMSL GRADIENT ARE WEAK
AND NO ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. FOG AND DRIZZLE HOWEVER COULD REDUCE
VSBYS BELOW 2 NM AT TIMES. SEAS 2-3 FEET MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD ESE
SWELL. INCREASING NNE CHOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AS WINDS INCREASE. NO TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. REMEMBER TO CHECK BOAT HORNS AND SPOTLIGHTS BEFORE HEADING
OUT...WHILE KEEPING IN MIND THAT WATER TEMPERATURES ARE HAZARDOUSLY
COLD.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS WITH A PERIOD
OF 15-20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN SEAS MAY ECLIPSE THE
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SWAN RUN. WILL
CERTAINLY SEE 3-5 FEET AND MAYBE 4-6 FEET. PRIOR TO AND AFTER SEAS
WILL BE 2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST SLIGHTLY. THIS
MEANS A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER...MOST OF
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE TEN
KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ039-
     054>056.

NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ110.

MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK/MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR









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