Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 291144
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
744 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. VERY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER OCCURS ON SATURDAY DUE TO WEAK
AND TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY...BRINGING
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL SUN
THROUGH MON...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...THIS UPDATE CONCERNED WITH THE SHALLOW
STRATUS DROPPING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...ITS MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL STOP SEVERAL HRS
AFTER DAYBREAK...WHICH PUTS IT 3/4 OF THE WAY THRU THE ILM CWA.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG 2 TO 5 MILES IN VSBY WILL QUICKLY DISPERSE
BY 9 AM. THE DAYS INSOLATION AND THE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT
TOGETHER TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS BY MIDDAY THE LATEST.
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE LEFTOVER FOR FEW/SCT
AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU TO DEVELOP.

PREVIOUS...................................................
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...BY DAYBREAK...THE SFC LOW WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE ATL WATERS OFF THE OUTER BANKS. ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE DROPPED SOUTHWARD...ABOUT HALFWAY THRU THE
ILM CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER DROP SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA
BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING. NOT MUCH OF A SFC PG AFTER ITS
PASSAGE WITH THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN YIELDING A NW DIRECTION
INITIALLY THEN VEERING TO THE N OR NE THIS AFTN. LOOKING AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS...FROM SFC TO 850MB...NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 10 KT THIS AFTN. THIS WILL ENABLE BOTH THE FORMATION OF THE
MESOSCALE SEA BREEZE DURING THE MIDDAY HRS...AND ALSO ALLOW ITS
PROGRESSION INLAND THIS AFTN THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AFTN TEMPS AND LOCAL SSTS WILL RUN 15+ DEGREES
FURTHER FUELING ITS PUSH INLAND. OTHER THAN ISOLATED MORNING
SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE FA
TODAY WILL BE PCPN-FREE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT
THIS MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES W TO NW DUE TO SOME
AMPLIFICATION TO THE RIDGING ALOFT AFFECTING THE SE STATES.
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU
TO OCCUR THIS AFTN...WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PREVENTING ANY FURTHER
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REACH THE ILM CWA BY SAT DAYBREAK... WHICH WILL ALLOW CI/CS TO
PARTIALLY MOVE OVERHEAD VIA VARIOUS MODEL RH TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS.

TODAYS MAX TEMPS WILL EXPERIENCE SOME HELP FROM A DOWNSLOPE
TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND FIELD SFC THRU ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN THIS AFTN AND EVENING WILL YIELD A VEERING WIND TO
THE N OR NE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH SPEEDS 10 MPH OR
LESS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL NOT REMAIN PINNED DUE TO WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISHING. LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS...WITH LOWER
80S OCCURRING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST PRIOR TO THE SEA BREEZE.
WIDESPREAD 60S FOR TONIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTS EARLY SAT...WITH WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS BECOMING
SW-WSW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL
ENABLE MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FA BOTH IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. AT THE SFC...RIDGING WILL TEMPORARILY PUSH SOUTHWARD
FROM THE NE STATES ACROSS THE FA EARLY SAT. ITS RIDGE AXIS BY SAT
EVENING WILL EXTEND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS FROM ITS CENTER WHICH
WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST FROM THE NE STATES. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO RETURN NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE FA
SAT NIGHT TO NORTH OF THE FA DURING SUNDAY. MODELS THERE-AFTER ARE
SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND DEEP THE MOISTURE
BECOMES ACROSS THE FA. EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS OR VORTS WILL
SPORADICALLY PUSH ACROSS THE FA SUN THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THEIR
DYNAMICS AND AN UNSTABLE ATM WILL YIELD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM LATE SUN MORNING THRU DAYBREAK MON. AM CONCERNED
THAT POPS EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS ARE RUNNING TOO HIGH ACROSS THE
ILM CWA. HAVE TWEAKED THEM LOWER TO 50 PERCENT OR LESS...AND KEPT
THE HIER POPS NORTH OF THE ILM CWA. AS FOR TEMPS...STAYED ACTUALLY
CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO LOWER POPS AND LESS
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ON SAT. THE ONSHORE AND VEERING WINDS THIS
PERIOD...NE-E SAT VEERING TO SE-S SUN...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MON INTO TUES. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST
AIR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHWRS/TSTMS ON MONDAY. A
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN MON NIGHT PUSHING THIS FRONT SOUTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE ECMWF IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND DOES NOT PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTH...BUT INSTEAD IT LINGERS OVER NC/SC AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG IT PRODUCING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS
KEEPS THE FRONT WELL SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BRINGING CLOUDS AND PCP BACK IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUES NIGHT INTO WED. THEREFORE GFS MAINTAINS A DRIER AIR MASS
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUES WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS WETTER WEATHER FOR TUES. WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
LOWER END POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT.

BY WED A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH WITH
EXTENSIVE MVFR/IFR BEHIND IT. THE CIGS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH INTO KLBT
AND KFLO...BUT SHIFTING SE AT A SLOWER PACE TOWARDS KILM AND THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE OF
IFR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE AT KFLO/KLBT/KILM. BEST CHANCE OF VFR
THIS MORNING WILL BE AT KCRE/KMYR. CEILINGS ARE THIN...AND WITH
STRONG INSOLATION WILL SCOUR OUT QUICKLY BY MID-MORNING WITH ALL
TERMINALS BECOMING VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL BECOME NW-NE AT 5-10 KT OR
LESS THIS MORNING. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXING GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING
140-170 AROUND 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMS THIS AFTN. ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE DAYS INSOLATION COULD PRODUCE
FEW/SCT CU...OTHERWISE SKC TO PREVAIL INTO THRU THIS EVENING. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE CU DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT.

UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD BE SOME FOG ISSUES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KFLO/KLBT...AND AT KCRE DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH A RETURN FLOW. HAVE NOT ADDRESSED IN TAFS
ATTM

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS AND
SOUTH OF THE ILM WATERS BEFORE STALLING THIS MORNING.
INITIALLY...WINDS TO BECOME W TO NW 10 KT THIS MORNING. THE WEAK
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED SFC PG...WILL RESULT IN WINDS
FURTHER VEERING TO THE N TO NE AT 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTN. FOR
TONIGHT...A VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION CAN BE EXPECTED HOWEVER WILL
TRY TO IDENTIFY A DOMINATING DIRECTION. THE RELAXED GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN 10 KT OR LESS FOR SPEEDS. OTHER THEN ISOLATED -SHRA
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN PCPN-FREE THRU
TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BASICALLY SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT
TODAY...DROPPING TO 2 FT ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS. WIND WAVES
AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM THIS
MORNING. A 1 TO 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS
WILL THEN BECOME DOMINANT PLAYER THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...SFC RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES...WILL PARTIALLY AFFECT THE ILM NC
WATERS SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF NE-E 15 KT MINI SURGE
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT THRU
SUN WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE E-SE THRUOUT SAT NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY SUN...RESULTING IN
WINDS FURTHER VEERING TO THE S TO SW SUN THRU SUN NIGHT. THE SFC
PG WILL TIGHTEN-SOME AFTER THE WFP...RESULTING WITH 10 TO 15 KT
SPEEDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SUN NIGHT. FOR SAT...SIGNIFICANT
SEAS AT 2 TO 3 FT WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 3 TO 5
SECONDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND AN
EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS ELSEWHERE. WIND
DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECONDS WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN
NIGHT...AND BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT BY DAYBREAK MON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
SHOULD DRAG THIS COLD FRONT INTO THE WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT THROUGH TUES AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THIS FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUES
POTENTIALLY KEEPING A MORE VARIABLE FLOW BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS ON TUES. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4
FT WILL REACH UP TO 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS MON AFTN AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN SLOWLY IN NORTHERLY FLOW
HEADING INTO TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
.


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