Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 311730
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ONE MORE DAY ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY...AND STALL OVER
THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING GOOD RAIN
CHANCES...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA AS WELL. EXPECT THIS GRADUAL
TREND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER...MID-LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THUS
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION HAS A LOW PROBABILITY. IN
ADDITION...WE WILL SEE THE CONTINUATION OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AS SFC HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN
PLACE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ADDED DEGREE HERE OR THERE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...OVERALL ARE CLOSE TO...IF NOT AT ALREADY...OUR
HIGHS FOR TODAY.

AS A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE AROUND THE
UNSEASONABLY DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE US TODAY...A SYNOPTIC TRANSITION WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
ITS COURSE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOCUS TURNS TO THE SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL RETROGRADE BACK
TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST AS A WARM FRONT BY MORNING.  WHILE
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT FAIRLY DRY
MID-LEVELS...AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORTS
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT CIRRUS CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER...HAVE SLIGHTLY
TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT CONTINUING OVERALL WITH AROUND 70
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY MAY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL
MAINTAIN BKN CIGS THIS AFTN AS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD. EAST WINDS HAVE PICKED UP MORE
THAN EXPECTED...SO HAVE ADDED PREVAILING WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT THE COASTAL TERMS. RAIN CHANCES INLAND INCREASE THIS
EVENING AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH...SO
WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR KFLO/KLBT AFTER 00Z FRI. AS THE STALLED FRONT
OFFSHORE LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS
MAY ENCROACH UPON THE COASTAL SITES AFTER 06Z FRI. BY 12Z THE FRONT
SHOULD BE DRAPED OVER OUR CWA WITH -SHRA AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW
PERSISTENT AND HOW EARLY THE RAINFALL BEGINS...MVFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OR HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING. THOUGH BRIEF
IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MVFR SHOULD PREVAIL BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
SAT THROUGH MON AS A FRONT STALLS AND FINALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ON TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...VERY UNSETTLED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...BUT A SLOW RETURN TO MORE TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME CAROLINAS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
WILL VERY SLOWLY DAMPEN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHILE 5H RIDGE
RETROGRADES TO WEST AND BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST LATE IN
THE EXTENDED. AT THE SURFACE...A COASTAL TROUGH STALLED IN THE
VICINITY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SUN/MON...WHICH
COMBINES WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES...AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...TO
PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WPC GRAPHICS SUGGESTS 2-4" OF QPF SUN-TUE...AND WILL CARRY
LIKELY POP SUNDAY...HIGH CHC ON MONDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT OCCURS
THEREAFTER AS THE TROUGH MORE QUICKLY ERODES TO THE NORTH AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT...BUT TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE AGAIN
HIGHER-THAN-CLIMO POP...BEFORE IMPROVEMENT OCCURS WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS DEVELOPING
ONLY BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY...PERHAPS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THRU
THE PERIOD...BRINGING INCREASED PCPN CHANCES TO KFLO/KLBT LATER
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN
TERMS OF PCPN TIMING...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS/MAV SOLUTION
WHICH SHOWS BETTER CHANCES AT KFLO/KLBT AFTER 00Z FRI. THUS HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...WARRANTING A
MENTION OF VCSH AT THE COASTAL TERMS AFTER 06Z FRI. ALTHOUGH SFC
WINDS APPEAR TOO STRONG FOR ANY VSBY ISSUES...COULD SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP EARLY FRI MORNING. EXPECT GENERALLY EAST WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AND PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT STALLS AND FINALLY
DISSIPATES OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAND AND A WARM
FRONT OFFSHORE MOVING CLOSER TO THE WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECT EAST WINDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...COASTAL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE DURING FRIDAY...AND THEN PUSH FURTHER
INLAND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST
FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS CREATES A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FRIDAY...SO AS
WINDS VEER FROM E TO SE THROUGH THE DAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE EASING TO 10-15 KTS DURING
SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY MORE DIRECTIONAL CHANGE TO THE SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH A 1 FT SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST DURING THE PERIOD...WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2-3 FT WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY BY A 5-6 SEC WIND WAVE
VEERING FROM EAST TO SOUTH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH INLAND WILL WASH
OUT OVER THE LAND THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK...LEAVING EXPANDING AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES WEST...S/SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SPEEDS RISING
FROM 10 KTS SUNDAY...TO 15 KTS ON MONDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW BECOMES
MORE SIGNIFICANT. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SUNDAY...RISING TO 3-4 FT
MONDAY ON THE LONGER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FETCH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SGL
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR





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