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000
FXUS61 KILN 161811
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
211 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA THIS
MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE PUSHING
TOWARD THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY WILL KEEP A LOW LEVEL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER OUR AREA TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A MODIFYING
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE 30S ACROSS ALL ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST FORMATION IN
MOST LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...AM ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THAT RESIDE IN THE FROST FREEZE
PROGRAM AT THIS TIME.

RETURN FLOW WILL REBOUND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS VARY A BIT ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY.
THE ONLY MODELS THAT KEEP PRECIPITATION IN TACT ACROSS OUR AREA
ARE THE SREF AND GFS. CMC/ECMWF/NAM ARE DRIER. AM FORECASTING 40
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND LOW END POPS ELSEWHERE FOR
FRIDAY AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A DRIER SOLUTION
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS UP...WITH MAXIMUMS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WHITEWATER VALLEY...TO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY.

ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
FILTERING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. AT THIS
POINT WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND HOWEVER LIMITED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL
VARIABILITY. THERE IS AGAIN SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTIONED. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
ONTARIO CANADA AS A COLD FRONT SAGS EAST TOWARD OUR REGION.
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STILL FORECAST WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ077>082-
     088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN