Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 030203
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1003 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RISE IN
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES
FOR STORMS INCREASING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FEW REMAINING SHOWERS NEAR WEST CENTRAL OHIO ARE DISSIPATING.
CLOUDS IN THAT REGION SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS WELL. OTHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE OFF AS
WELL. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUIDANCE
CONCERNING HOW EXTENSIVE OR THICK THE FOG WILL BECOME BUT DID OPT
TO ADD PATCHY DENSE TO RIVER VALLEYS WHERE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES
SEEM MORE PROBABLE. ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH
IS NOT THE CLEANEST OF HIGHS...WITH MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH AT
VARIOUS LEVELS. IN FACT...THE NAM AND SPC-WRF BOTH SHOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND LOOSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.

THE SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT (AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY). MOST OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING NORTHERN
STREAM CONVECTION GETTING VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLY
ON THURSDAY...DECAYING AS IT RUNS INTO THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.
A 20-POP WILL BE KEPT IN THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY...AT
LEAST UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEARER SKIES WILL BE
WARMER...WITH LOWER-TO-MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID-TO-UPPER 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY ALLOWING
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON
SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.

COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT. APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SITUATION FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL SITES. EXPECT TO
FALL TO LIFR AT THE USUALLY MORE FOG PRONE TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES
WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z. MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS
DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...






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