Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KILN 052344
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
OUR REGION WILL BE AFFECTED BY TWO FEATURES OVERNIGHT. AN EMBEDDED
S/WV WILL SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA. THE
CIRRUS WILL BE THIN FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT SHOULD RESULT IN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A PERIOD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A TROUGH
AXIS WILL BRING SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS. MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AXIS. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THIS FEATURE
AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY DEEP...AND THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF
FORCING. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH A
VARIED MIX OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
SATURDAY WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S REGION WIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BY
SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
LOW INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VLY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER DRY DAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE OHIO VALLEY IN LARGE TROUGH WITH AT OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL
SEE FRONT PUSH ACROSS AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
TO SNOW SHOWERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXTENT OF PRECIP COVERAGE
AND AMOUNT BUT GENERALLY LIGHT QPF SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WITH TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. COLDER AIR ARRIVES MORE IN EARNEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH DISTURBANCES BRINGING FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. AGAIN
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT BUT MINOR ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE THE RULE.
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FINALLY GET PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY. SOME
INDICATION OF A DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL KEEP BENIGN WEATHER IN FOR NOW WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE RISE OR
STEADY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CI
OVERTOPPING THE REGION AND SOME SCT TO POTENTIAL BKN SC AROUND
4-5KFT POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND GO SOUTHERLY UNDER 4-5KT.

DAYBREAK WILL SEE CI EXITING W-E WITH A SW INCREASE IN WIND SPEED
TO 7-8KT AND SOME VERY DISORGANIZED FEW-SCT CU POSSIBLE FROM
4-8KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH NIGHTFALL AND WINDS
SHOULD RELAX AGAIN AS THEY TURN SOUTHERLY AND LIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR YET ANOTHER OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE DAYTIME CLOUDS
WILL BE CAUSED BY AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE BUT THE STRONGER
FORCING OF THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE SITUATED WELL SW AND WELL N
OF THE OHIO VALLEY. TROUGH AXIS CROSSES IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
APPEARS TO BE DISJOINTED WITH THE MOISTURE FIELDS FOR LESS CLOUDS
IN THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...FRANKS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.