Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 200001
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
701 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry conditions will build into the region
through Monday. Dry weather will then continue through much of
the week with temperatures remaining below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A few light rain showers, possibly mixing with a little snow at
times, will linger across our east a couple more hours before
ending as we get on the back side of the mid level short wave.
Otherwise, surface high pressure will build east across the
Tennessee Valley through tonight. This will allow the low level
flow to gradually back around to more of a westerly flow
overnight. This should allow for clearing to gradually work in
from the west through this evening and into tonight. Overnight
lows will be in the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
The surface high will shift east to off of the southeast coast
Monday into Monday night. This will lead to increasing
southwesterly low level flow across our area. With a dry airmass
in place, expect mostly clear skies Monday and Monday night.
This will also allow for temperatures to modify somewhat with
highs on Monday in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models suggest a rather tranquil period featuring surface high
pressure for the most part. Stronger weather systems may stay far to
the north, with a notable lack of moisture advection to the Ohio
Valley on a west to northwest flow aloft.

After high pressure brings dry weather early Tuesday, a disturbance
crossing the Great Lakes may bring a few showers to northwestern
locations Tuesday afternoon. Brisk winds and colder temperatures
will arrive Wednesday with high pressure centered over the Central
CONUS. As this expansive area of high pressure travels across the
Ohio Valley to the East Coast, dry weather is expected to continue
Thursday and Friday. Another disturbance traversing the Great Lakes
may bring a few showers of rain and snow Friday night and Saturday.
Look for a return of high pressure and dry air for Sunday.

Temperatures will vary with respect to the disturbances, featuring
the typical warm advection ahead of the disturbances followed by
cold advection behind. Expect highs around 50 on Tuesday under warm
advection and south winds, falling to the 30s Wednesday due to cold
advection on a northwest flow. Readings are forecast to climb back
into the 40s Thursday through Saturday, before dropping back into
the 30s Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure over the MS VLY to build east into the the
region overnight. As the flow transitions from cyclonic to
anti-cyclonic MVFR clouds will clear from sw to ne through late
evening. Mainly clear skies are expected through the remainder
of the TAF period. West winds around 10 kts this evening will
drop off to less than 10 kts overnight and then become sw at 10
to 15 kts Monday. Gusts up to 20 kts will be observed Monday
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR



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