Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
193 FXUS61 KILN 140130 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 930 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will oscillate across the area keeping the threat for showers and storms in the forecast through the week. A seasonably warm and humid pattern to continue through the week as well. The active pattern toward the end of the week may bring the potential for episodes of heavy rain and flooding. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Increased precipitation chances and added heavy rain wording across some areas overnight with a system moving across the area. Although there will be some decrease in intensity of the precipitation across some areas this evening, expect additional development of convection overnight and into the day on Monday. There is some concern that a west to east orientation of heavy rain along with slow moving storms will lead to a flash flooding concern. There is some uncertainty in where the corridor of heaviest rainfall will occur and therefore held off on a flood watch for now. Greatest concern is near the Ohio River to a few counties north of the Ohio River. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Mid level shortwave trof axis and ongoing convection across the area at sunrise Monday. A very moist environment to exist with PWat values approaching 2 inches. Although primary shortwave shifts off to the east thru the morning but an elongated hang back trof keeps shower and thunderstorm threat thru the afternoon and into evening. The best coverage looks to be across the south. Additional threat of heavy rain and localized flooding can be expected. Highs on Monday are expected in the lower and middle 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The longwave pattern on Tuesday has a ridge centered over the eastern United States with a low-amplitude trough across the west. Weak shortwave energy will continue to ripple from west to east from the trough into the ridge, while a stronger piece of energy traverses across the northern tier. With slightly drier air and weak forcing over the middle Ohio Valley on Tuesday, showers and storms will remain isolated. The stronger shortwave will begin to flatten the eastern ridge on Wednesday and Thursday. Low-level flow will pick up some and become southwesterly, with moisture and instability increasing. Convective details are still uncertain at this range; but overall, forcing appears weak so despite pretty high coverage of showers and storms, the activity may remain disorganized. By Friday, a cold front looks to be dropping slowly south into the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will provide a focus for storms along and ahead of the front. Guidance shows this front dropping to our south for next weekend. If this occurs, we may quiet weather for a couple of days at that time. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms will be west of the TAF sites to start the TAF period. Expect them to move across the region overnight and at times through early afternoon on Monday before beginning to taper off and move out of the region. Cigs will lower overnight and vsbys will be reduced at times with some of the precipitation. Outside of thunderstorms winds are not expected to be more than 10 knots, however cannot rule out brief wind gusts with some of the thunderstorm activity. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...