Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 100543
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1243 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Building high pressure will keep temperatures below normal tonight
into Saturday. Then a complex low pressure system will affect the
Ohio Valley Saturday night into Monday, bringing a mix of snow and
rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
We are continuing to see some weak returns on radar. With the sun
now down and temperatures in the 20s, we are starting to get some
reports of very light accumulations and a few slick spots. Have
updated the forecast to include scattered snow showers into the
early morning hours across about the northern two thirds of the
area. Any accumulations should be light but have issued an SPS to
account for isolated slick spots on roadways. The low level flow
will ever so gradually back overnight and this should allow for
the flurry/snow showers to gradually taper off. This may allow for
clouds to begin to erode away across our southwest late tonight
but for the most part expect cloudy skies across the area overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will cross the region on Saturday. This
high will provide dry weather and continued cold temperatures.
With a mix of clouds and sun, highs will range from the upper 20s
across the north to the lower 30s across the south.

As the H5 flow backs Saturday night, isentropic lift increases.
The 12Z remains the outlier keeping the waa pcpn north of the fa.
The other models are farther south, bringing the axis of the pcpn
across nrn IN into nrn OH, with the nrn part of the fa on the
southern edge of the steady snow. The 18Z has come in farther
south, matching closer to the other 12Z solutions.

Kept snow chances from about I-70 north with perhaps an inch or
two of snow across the far north overnight. Lows Saturday night
will be in the lower to mid 20s.

WAA pcpn continues to slide east across ILN/s nrn counties Sunday
morning with pcpn filling in from the west durg the afternoon as
favorable lift develops associated with 8H 55-60 kt low level jet.
Expect pcpn to remain snow across the far north with a snow to
rain/snow mix acrs the central and south. Eventually under the
influence of waa, the entire cwa turns over to rain Sunday night.
An additional additional inch of snow accumulation is possible
prior to the change to rain across the far north. Temperatures on
Sunday will warm to the mid 30s far north to the lower 40s far
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday starts with a strong surface low and warm front through the
Ohio Valley, followed sharply by a cold front and rapidly falling
temperatures from west to east. This follows a H5 shortwave moving
east past the Great Lakes region. High pressure at the surface will
be ushered in behind it and last until about Wednesday. On
Wednesday, the zonal H5 flow will contain a broad trough pushing in
from the west and a broad area of frontogenetic forcing will occur
in the mid levels over the eastern U.S. European model is quicker to
push the deeper moisture east on Wednesday and subsequently much
lighter in any potential for snow.

Temperatures should remain cool and thicknesses support snow for the
remainder of the forecast.

High pressure builds at the surface Wednesday night and dries out
the region through Friday.

Models continue to advertise a cool extended period with below
normal readings regardless of the timing or placement differences of
the Wednesday system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low level moisture circulating around high pressure will continue
to produce MVFR ceilings through the first several hours of the
forecast. Once this batch of moisture moves east by around 14z,
conditions will become VFR with sky cover consisting of mid level
clouds. Winds will be out of the southwest to west, with speeds
under 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday
afternoon into Monday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/Sites
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Coniglio


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