Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 240759
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
359 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid-level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region
through early next week. This will bring generally dry and warm
weather conditions to the region. Much cooler air will settle
into the region by the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
Another warm day looks likely this afternoon with 850 mb
temperatures holding around 18 degrees C. Mid-level ridging that
was over the Great Lakes will slowly push east this afternoon
allowing low level 1000/ 850 mb thicknesses to drop to around
1420 m. Have taken Saturday high temperatures and shaved a
degree off given the lower thicknesses and likely slightly
cooler start.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
During the day Monday the 500 mb ridge will weaken as Hurricane
Maria approaches from the south. At the same time an upper level
low over the Mountain West will open up and eject northeast. For
the Ohio Valley this means another day of highs in the upper
80s/ near 90 degrees. 850 mb temperatures and low level
thicknesses support highs Monday almost identical to Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid level ridging will continue to slowly weaken through the day on
Tuesday but not before we see another dry day with unseasonably warm
temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will again push up into the upper
80s. The ridge will then flatten out through the day on Wednesday as
a mid level trough works into the Great Lakes region and an
associated cold front pushes through our area. Forcing is fairly
weak though and moisture will remain limited. As a result, will
mainly allow for just some slight chance pops to work into our
northwest through the day. Instability is pretty meager so think
thunder chances will also be limited. Highs on Wednesday will range
from the lower 80s in the northwest to the mid and upper 80s across
our southeast.

Embedded short wave energy dropping down through the mid level
trough will bring a better shot of cooler air into our area through
the end of the week. The ECMWF is stronger with this feature,
developing a closed 500 mb low and dropping it down across the
eastern Great lakes through the weekend while the GFS is weaker and
has more of a broader trough pivoting across the region. Will
continue to go with a model blend for temperatures between the
cooler ECMWF and the not as cool GFS through the end of the period.
This will still allow for a significant airmass change with
temperatures several degrees below normal through the end of the
week. Pcpn chances will also depend on the strength of the
trough/upper level low. For now will continue with some lower chance
pops, primarily across the north on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure remains centered to our northeast will all
TAF sites VFR. Some local visibility restrictions at KLUK will
again be possible thanks to some river fog. Otherwise VFR
through the issuance is expected.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Haines


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