Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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418
FXUS61 KILN 260023
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
823 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will push east of the region this
evening. An unsettled pattern is expected for the weekend with
multiple systems moving through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
An area of low pressure will push east of the region this
evening.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move through
the region through the early evening hours before tapering off.
Brief heavy downpours, small hail, and gusty winds will be
possible with these showers and thunderstorms. Went close to the
blend for low temperatures overnight with lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions will be present for much of the day on Friday. A
low pressure system will begin to quickly move towards the area
Friday evening into Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms will
move through the region. Isolated damaging winds will be the
primary threat, however cannot rule out some isolated large hail
as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak cold front will be laying out across the region at the
beginning of the period. Some showers and thunderstorms may occur
with this feature as it moves in. With further destabilization in
the afternoon, there could be some additional development near this
boundary although forcing does not look particularly strong.
However, 12Z model suite has a pretty good signal that convection
will become organized in the mid Mississippi Valley with the MCS
then moving across the region late Saturday night into Sunday.

A large upper level low will slowly track across Ontario for the
first half of the week and then weaken and lift Thursday. This will
result in cool conditions across the region through the rest of the
period. A short wave rotating around the upper low may bring some
showers and possible thunder on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A vertically-organized area of low pressure will continue to
move east of the region through the first part of the TAF
period. Scattered -SHRA on the backside of the low continue to
pivot southeast this evening, impacting mainly KCMH and KLCK,
but also KILN and KDAY with some very light -RA. As the surface
low pulls away from the area, expect greatest coverage of SHRA
to shift east by 06z. But for the next several hours, expect on-
and-off activity for KCMH and KLCK, which may lead to brief MVFR
VSBYs and CIGs. For southwest terminals of KCVG and KLUK,
expect that MVFR CIGs will go VFR shortly as the surface ridge
axis approaches from the west. In fact, latest satellite depicts
the back edge of extensive cloud cover approaching within first
several hours of TAF period for these sites.

Main concern for the overnight period will be the
potential for MVFR VSBYs due to BR development, especially for
areas that see clearing a bit faster. Expect that this may be an
issue for western terminals, especially KLUK, but cloud cover
should inhibit any BR development at KCMH and KLCK.
However, there will be the potential for IFR CIGs at these sites
towards 12z as back edge of clouds may be a bit slower to move
out.

Expect that TAF period will be dry for all sites past 06z.
However, models have hinted at the potential for some TSRA
activity moving into western parts of area towards end of KCVG
30-hr period. Did not have confidence on timing or location to
include such activity in the forecast at this time.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings, visibilities, along with a chance of
thunderstorms possible Friday night into Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC



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