Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 032025
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TIED TO SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
FORCING CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...FORCING
MOVES EAST...AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE THE CLOUD COVER TO DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT SKIES TO AT LEAST REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY. WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HAVING BEEN HELD DOWN BY THE
CLOUD COVER...HAVE NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CUT OFF OVER INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL ACT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. GIVEN COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS (UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S) AND LIMITED
INSOLATION...ONLY WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SREF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST SHOW SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE ILN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL ACT TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT...BUT THE COLD MID LEVEL UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT
SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL. WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY UNORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS...THOUGH LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES
PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST NOW APPEARS PREFERRED...SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...AND LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA (PERHAPS EXCEPT
FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY) DRY ON SUNDAY. AFTER WARM CONDITIONS
SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S)...WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ALSO NEEDED TO BE REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THEY REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL (UPPER 60S
/ LOWER 70S). AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
APPEAR TO BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
MOVING NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT...SPREADING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WITH A WARM AND MOIST PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A RIDGE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT A LACK OF FEATURES FOR FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED (AND THUS POPS ARE ONLY BEING INTRODUCED AT
THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS
ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS...EXPECT TO
SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS BREAK UP THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A RETURN OF SOME MVFR CIGS. AS WE START TO
DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KURZ
NEAR TERM...KURZ
SHORT TERM...KURZ
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL



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