Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 060841
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
441 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO EASTERN
AREAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NNE INTO EASTERN KY
WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE EAST TODAY. EXPECT A MORE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S FAR EAST TO THE MID/UPR 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH UPR LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS EVENING...
ILN/S FA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. SO WILL END ANY
LINGERING POPS IN THE FAR EAST EARLY AND ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPING
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
PUSHING INTO ILN/S FA TUE NIGHT.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT 8H JET. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW TYPICAL BIAS
WITH CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG DUE TO WIDESPREAD SFC TD/S OF 75 OR MORE.
GFS INSTBY LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH BLYR CAPES VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

PW/S INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS AND WARM MID LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACRS NW BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTN INTO TUE EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE LKLY POPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF WESTERLIES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH FRONT
STALLING OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS SOUTHERN OHIO CLOSER
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.

TEMP WISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER/MID
80S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER
THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST. CLOUDS
WILL SHOW A DECREASING TREND...WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST. SOME BR MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






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