Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 280755

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
355 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

An area of low pressure will move across northern Kentucky and
into West Virginia today. High pressure will build in behind
the departing low for the weekend.


A cold front has dropped down to around the Ohio River early
this morning. This has been the focus for showers/isolated
thunderstorms through the night, and the majority of computer
guidance suggests this will continue through sunrise with the
frontal boundary in place and a surface low across southern
Indiana. Therefore, have high chance, even some likely pops
across portions of northern Kentucky, tapering off to slight
chance pops not too far north of the Ohio River through sunrise.

Highest pops will likely continue to reside across northern
Kentucky to start the day, then as low pressure moves east-
northeast along the front, eventually into West Virginia, will
likely see the most concentrated area of convection focus across
the east/southeast portion of the CWA closer to the low. This
is supported by several computer models and latest SREFS.
Convection may be efficient rainfall producers and therefore
locally heavy rainfall is possible. A few storms may also
produce isolated strong gusty winds, particularly this

There may be some late day breaks in the clouds across the
northwest CWA, otherwise plenty of clouds will help hold
temperatures below normal today, with maxima only rising into
the upper 70s/around 80.


Any evening showers, mainly across the eastern CWA, will come
to an end as low pressure moves further away from the area
tonight. North/northwest flow will bring in drier air, and
support clearing skies from west to east tonight. This will pave
the way for a good deal of sunshine on Saturday, with lower
humidity and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below average.


Pattern of a ridge over the west/trough in the east looks to
continue for much of the long term, placing the Ohio Valley in a
northwest flow. At the surface, high pressure builds from the
Great Lakes Sunday into Monday before shifting east for the
middle of the week.

Dry conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday as
temperatures moderate back into the mid 80s for highs/mid 60s
for lows. A cold front will approach toward the end of the
week, but timing is still uncertain. With moisture/instability
increase, have a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday and if the
front is still in the vicinity then the chance of thunderstorms
may continue into Friday.


Northeast winds will bring in cooler and generally moist air to
the region this early morning, bringing some vsby restrictions
but more importantly IFR to LIFR cigs when the higher clouds
clear out, and be largely dependent on when those are not
present this morning. Southern TAF sites will see a more
variable wind but still northerly direction. Stronger winds will
not be advecting the more moist air to these sites as the
surface low pressure center is progged to develop along the Ohio
River this morning.

This surface low and battling airmasses will be a focus for
shower development, and possibly a thunderstorm. However, the
system may be a bit more progressive than is being shown on a
number of solutions, and push further south as the northeast
winds continue and strengthen through the rest of the morning.
Did not include showers or thunderstorms in the forecast. Would
like to see how, if, and particularly where these storms may
develop this morning. All indications are that they would not
affect the TAF sites along the I-70 corridor between Dayton and
Columbus, and would likely spare ILN and possibly only skim the
southern TAF sites of CVG and LUK.

Wind will pick up this late afternoon and see some sustained
15kt with gusts 20-25kt in the rush of cooler air. While this
will help scour out any surface moisture, some cloud cover below
1kft may be present, and could develop into a low stratus deck
given the strength of the cold air advection.





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