Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 020513
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
113 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT. A VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
OVERNIGHT BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ON SUNDAY... AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. MID/UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE ACRS THE REGION
WAS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS. AIRMASS IS
DRY...SO HAVE CONTINUED DRY FCST. LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE IN DRY
AIRMASS WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NE TO THE LOWER 60S
WEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF CHICAGO IS ALSO
FORECASTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
OUR CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME HIGH RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS WITH THIS ALONG WITH THE NAM (ON OMEGA
AND QPF FIELDS). PWATS OVERNIGHT REMAIN LOW THOUGH. BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FORECASTING VALUES ONLY AROUND 1.00". SOUNDINGS ALSO
DON`T SHOW MUCH. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN OUT
OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING EAST AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT 250 MB
CURRENT CONVERGENT FLOW WILL END AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH
INTO MINNESOTA.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO SLOWLY RISE NEAR
1.25" DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
FORECASTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE
OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN WEAK LIFT (VIA OMEGA
FIELDS) AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT
FOR SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ON THE RISE
SUNDAY AND APPROACH 17 DEGREES C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

EARLY MONDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE GETS WRAPPED UP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND TRENDED POPS HIGHER MONDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT
FLOW FROM A SPLITTING JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME FROM THE FRONT BUT SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK.
OMEGA VALUES ALSO LOOK WEAK NOT SURPRISINGLY GIVEN WEAK VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECASTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (PWATS ~ 1.4" -
1.5"). WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING THE LLJ IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS. THE FRONT
THEN LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT
THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 01.12Z GFS RUN SHIFTED THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED QPF QUITE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
06Z RUN...TAKING IT RIGHT THROUGH THE ILN CWA ON FRIDAY. BASED ON
THIS LARGE SHIFT AND THE FACT THAT ITS QPF AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STILL
LOOK OVERDONE...HAVE USED A BLEND MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF /WHICH HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY/ TO
HANDLE THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE H5 TROUGH OVERHEAD AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STAYING TO OUR
SOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A COOLER AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS LOOKS
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RELATIVELY DRY
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS STORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
(WITH SOME GUSTS A LITTLE HIGHER POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES). WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SSW AND BECOME WEAKER GOING INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...HATZOS


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