Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 181958

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
258 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

High pressure centered south of the region will extend up the
western side of the Appalachians through the end of the week.
This will keep southwesterly flow across the area, resulting in dry
conditions and a gradual warming of temperatures through the end of
the work week. The next chance of precipitation will be Saturday
night into Sunday morning.


Surface high pressure was located near the Louisiana/ Mississippi
border this afternoon allowing for sunny skies across the region.
Temperatures have quickly warmed this afternoon thanks to 850 MB
temperatures near freezing. As the inversion has mixed out this
afternoon high temperatures in the lowers 30s will be possible
across northern Kentucky.

Overnight, the surface high pressure will slowly drift east as the
upper level low exits the region. This means that the Arctic high
pressure will continue to weaken with southwesterly flow firmly in
place across the area.


During the day Friday surface high pressure will be moving off the
east coast and loosing cohesion. Widespread WAA will also
continue with 850 MB temperatures further recovering to near 5
degrees C above zero. This will make high temperatures in the
mid to upper 30s likely with freezing being reached across the
area for the first time since January 12th. Mostly clear skies
and dry weather will persist for Friday.


A southerly low level flow will develop on the backside of
retreating surface high pressure. In WAA pattern a chance of a few
showers will develop Saturday night. Model solutions have trended
slower, so will keep Saturday daytime hours dry. Temperatures are e
expected to be around 5 degrees above normal with highs Saturday
from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south.

Mid/upper level flow to back with and deepening surface wave
ejecting from the central plains Sunday into the Great Lakes Monday
night into Tuesday. In the warm sector on Sunday the best chance of
rain shifts north thru ILN/s FA. Therefore, will continue to shift
pops north and then limit pops to very low chance category. Expect
temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs Sunday
generally between the mid 40s north to the lower 50s south.

Models solutions diverge on exact timing but slower trend continues
with system and associated associated surface cold front expected to
sweep east through ILN/s FA later Monday/Monday night . Therefore,
will ramp rain pops Monday afternoon into Monday night. On the warm
side of the system, above normal temperatures to continue with highs
from near 50 northwest to the upper 50s southeast.

With upper low tracking through the Great Lakes, a chance of
precipitation will linger into Tuesday with rain changing to snow.
The best chance will occur across the north counties, closer to the
upper lows. Temperatures turn closer to normal with highs Tuesday
from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast.

In the wake of this system surface high pressure to build across the
region. This feature will provide dry weather for the middle of next
week. Temperatures will continue close to normal with Wednesdays
highs from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south. Temperatures
will moderate slightly Thursday with highs from the upper 30s north
to the mid 40s south.


VFR through the issuance is expected. Surface high pressure is
forecast to remain south of the area through the issuance
allowing for southwest winds and only some passing cirrus.
During the day winds will increase above 10 kts and fall below
or be around 10 kts overnight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday afternoon into
Sunday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with wind
gusts to 25 kt possible Monday.




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