Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 240800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
300 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Cold front is just south of Interstate 70 as of 07z. It will
continue to track to the south exiting the forecast area by 12z.
Otherwise, winds to veer to the north behind the boundary bringing
in slightly cooler weather with highs near normal, in the 60s,
despite plenty of sunshine today.

By this evening, surface ridge to begin moving off to the east
allowing winds to veer to the east, then to the southeast by 12z
Tuesday. Clear skies to persist with lows ranging from the low 40s
along and east of Mississippi River to the upper 40s over central


.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Focus in the short term remains the system on Wed. Overall, not too
much has changed since this time yesterday. The GFS is still a
slightly faster outlier, mainly thru 18z Wed, compared to the other
guidance. Only minor changes were made to PoPs, but did lower during
the morning hours as some guidance is suggesting a lull in precip,
which seems reasonable.

While the threat is rather low attm, there is a conditional severe
threat on Wed. Mdls suggest a plume on instability ahead of the
cdfnt. However, latest guidance suggests this instability will
remain largely capped, but the better forcing further NE. Will
continue to monitor with future updates.

As for temps, continued a warmer trend for Tues and Wed ahead of the
approaching system. May need to go warmer for Tues, but with
questions regarding timing of the wrmfnt lifting thru the area and
cloud cover, going forecast is fine. Same can be said for Wed,
especially given precip spreading thru the area.

For the extd...have generally trended twd a compromise thru the
period. Did trend warmer on Fri with good agreement with a quick
warm up. Also trended a little warmer across the srn portions of the
CWA anticipating mdls to slow timing of the approaching cdfnt.



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the valid TAF period. A cold
front has just pushed through UIN/COU, and will approach the St.
Louis metro terminals in the next hour or so. This front will
switch winds around to northerly, although speeds will remain
around 6-7 knots or less. Monday will feature high pressure
passing to the northeast, which will veer the northerly winds to
a more easterly direction through the daytime hours. Skies will
be mainly clear through the period with just a few passing high
clouds from time to time.

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. A dry cold front
will swing winds around to a more northerly direction within the
next hour or so, but speeds should remain around 6-7 knots or less.
Otherwise, an area of high pressure passing to the northeast will
veer winds back to a more easterly direction through the daytime
hours Monday. Mainly clear skies are expected through the period with
just a few passing high clouds from time to time.



Saint Louis     65  46  67  53 /   0   0   0  10
Quincy          63  44  63  53 /   0   0   5  40
Columbia        66  47  70  56 /   0   0   5  30
Jefferson City  67  48  71  56 /   0   0   5  30
Salem           65  43  64  48 /   0   0   0   5
Farmington      68  44  67  51 /   0   0   0   5




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